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Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

nature.com

221–230 of 285 posts

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not making a values argument either way. It just seems apparent that people are tired of restrictions, and those people seem more likely to vote. The result in Virginia was shocking and should have been a wake up call to Democrats.

I wonder if people would be OK with less restrictions, no vaccine mandates but perma n95 in public indoor and outdoor spaces ? Because whether we like it or not the virus is still going to be around and kill people and saturate hospitals. So, to me, the question seems to be: will living with the virus means "we don't treat covid patients anymore, if you get covid, tough luck, you are free to choose to wear a mask if…

>I wonder if people would be OK with less restrictions, no vaccine mandates but perma n95 in public indoor and outdoor spaces ?

The second and third most populous states in the nation have banned Covid restrictions. I think the answer to your question is… absolutely not.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not making a values argument either way. It just seems apparent that people are tired of restrictions, and those people seem more likely to vote. The result in Virginia was shocking and should have been a wake up call to Democrats.

I wonder if people would be OK with less restrictions, no vaccine mandates but perma n95 in public indoor and outdoor spaces ? Because whether we like it or not the virus is still going to be around and kill people and saturate hospitals. So, to me, the question seems to be: will living with the virus means "we don't treat covid patients anymore, if you get covid, tough luck, you are free to choose to wear a mask if…

> Because whether we like it or not the virus is still going to be around and kill people and saturate hospitals.

Still be around and kill people? Sure, but that's true of the seasonal flu, and even the common cold in rare cases. Saturate hospitals? No.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vaccines are quite effective against severe disease and death from Omicron due to somatic hypermutation. The people who are vaccinated against original Wuhan-Hu-1 make memory B-cells against Omicron as well. Even after boosting with Wuhan-Hu-1 spike antigen the neutralization titers against Omicron in the blood are high, even after all the spike mutations. And again, there are around a thousand T-cell epitopes to…

> Your naive model of how the immune system works like a key and lock where if you change one of the pins then the vaccine stops working entirely is deeply flawed. That isn't fair on your part. The bit that you picked out is factually correct. It is also correct that the vaccines + previous immunity will give an improved chance at a positive outcome. But it's not the same as it was for the first wave, the vaccines we…

> But it's not the same as it was for the first wave, the vaccines were very specifically developed and tested in that setting and every future mutation had a worse response, due to attenuation due to time and mismatch with the target.

Again this is just wrong.

If you've been vaccinated then you have B-cells that match Omicron, even though you weren't vaccinated with Omicron's spike.

Maybe my analogy didn't work, but you have a flawed understanding of the immune system.

As a concrete and well-studied example, the H1N1 strain of influenza stopped spreading in the human race in 1957. Nobody after that was exposed to it, everyone born before that was exposed going back to 1918. It was displaced by the H2N2 pandemic in 1957. It mutated in pigs for 50 years. Then it underwent triple recombination in 2009 and jumped back to humans -- with an H1 gene that was derived from the human strain and an avian N1 gene that hadn't ever been seen before.

The impact of that 2009 pandemic was considerably blunted by human cross reactive T-cell immunity in the older population who had seen the long-lost relative of H1 protein back before 1957. That 50 year old "pre-vaccination" did not wane and was cross reactive after 50 years of mutation and adaptation in pigs, and was still effective enough to protect against severe disease and death.

Nobody had immunity against infection of course, but that cross reactive immunity to H1N1 in all the older people helped to dramatically blunt the impact of the 2009 pandemic to the point where the human impact was lower than normal human influenza.

Cross-reactive B-cells and T-cells to future variants to SARS-CoV-2 are going to work the same way. Most of the epitopes will still be conserved and the T-cell reaction will be able to clear the disease and protect against severe disease and death.

You don't need reimmunization every time the virus mutates slightly, that would be poor design. The humoral immune system works closer to a Bayesian spam filter (arguably better).

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Recently released (days ago) US census data disagrees. Only New York had higher outmigration in absolute numbers than California.

California would be expected to have the largest outmigration given that it has the largest population.

It’s an outlier even on a percentage change basis. One of only a handful of states losing over 0.5% of residents since the pandemic started.

The “bottom five” for percentage change is, in order… DC, NY, Illinois, Hawaii, California.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#225
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's been obvious since march of last year that this was the inevitable outcome of covid, yet we've spent nearly two years hand-wringing and fearmongering over it. it's the novelty of the virus combined with the general unpreparedness of our immune systems (obesity, sickness of all sorts, and age correlate with lowered immune preparedness) that's created this wave of initial severity as the virus works it's way to a…

I think it has been pretty clear for a very long time that covid is something we will all get, and that it might even become something bot unlike the seasonal flu. The message has to my ears been "less contact = less infection = better access to healthcare for those who really need it". What would you suggest instead? I am all for discussing the losses contra gains of lockdowns, but I dont think any options have soun…

frankly, there wasn't a whole lot we could do to alter the trajectory we were on. even a month(s)-long, wuhan-style lockdown could only temporarily arrest infection rates, unless the whole world literally did it together. even then, reintroduction via animal reservoirs would be a significant threat. that's what we should have come to grips with early on, accepting that we are not the masters of even our own little earth out of the vast universe.

regarding "= better access to healthcare for those who really need it", that was entirely a political and economic choice to focus primarily on profit over critical care services and availability (not just the past 2 years, but decades). even so, hospitals aren't overflowing, as we keep hearing on the news, except in short-lived, isolated cases. 'exponential growth' was mediopolitical fearmongering, not mathematically sound modeling. if anything, that our limited hospital capacity has weathered the storm gives more hope, not less.

the biggest mistake we (that is, our various levels of government) made was not hyperfocusing on the immune deficient, and only the immune deficient (obese, chronically ill, elderly, etc.). for instance, we should have locked down care facilities immediately (along with care staff, perhaps 2 weeks on, 1 week off, 1 week quarantine, with generous benefits/pay). we should have enouraged physical fitness nine ways to sunday (more bikes, less cars!).

beyond that, give people timely and accurate information (as in, if it's uncertain, tell people how uncertain), encourage (don't mandate) pro-social (not self-righteous) behavior, and then ride it out. people already modulate their behavior (e.g., distancing, socializing) based on prevailing local conditions, so mask mandates and (theatrical) lockdowns really have had very marginal (and possibly no) effect on infections, hospitalizations, and death.

certainly don't shut down gyms, parks, restaurants, small businesses, offices, and the like. perhaps consider limiting venues that encourage hypersocial behavior (i.e., partying), like bars and clubs. again, we already modulate our behavior, so shutdowns likely had no or marginally small effect.

once vaccines were emergency-approved, encourage the immune deficient to take them, and allow the risk-averse to take them as well. don't mandate them for anyone, since they're non-sterilizing (and mRNA tech is new).

with that, we'd probably be right around where we are now, but without all the stress, fear, anger, and divisiveness.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The "its just a flu" people were dead wrong in 2020, but very soon they're going to be entirely right. This is quite infuriating. We had a pretty good window when we could have done something about this and we totally squandered it. > You'd have to eradicate all the deer, mink and every species you don't know about that has been infected with it How much transfer is there in animal populations? Do we have any idea…

> This is quite infuriating. We had a pretty good window when we could have done something about this and we totally squandered it. I honestly doubt it. We could have blunted the impact but it was out of Wuhan and in Italy before any doctors in Wuhan even knew about it or suspected. We were never going to lock down the entire world the way that China locked down. Even if the Western world did, then what would your pl…

> I honestly doubt it. We could have blunted the impact but it was out of Wuhan and in Italy before any doctors in Wuhan even knew about it or suspected. We were never going to lock down the entire world the way that China locked down.

Ok, I accept that.

The problem with COVID-19 as far as I understand it compared to SARS-CoV is that with COVID-19 you first become contagious and then you start showing symptoms. That tiny little difference, first the danger, then the warning instead of the other way around is why it is going to be impossible to eradicate it, and in fact why this was likely impossible from the beginning.

But we could have massively slowed down the initial transmission (at severe economic cost but probably not nearly as bad as what we have to contend with now), buying time to get those vaccines developed and out there resulting in a much smaller first wave and subsequently fewer lives lost and people severely ill.

> Even if the Western world did, then what would your plan be for Africa? What about the slums of Bangladesh and other areas in SE Asia?

Yes, this was a global problem from day #1. But that is something that we don't seem to universally recognize even today.

> Deer so far are the only known species where it is spreading epidemically in them in the wild, but there's likely to be others.

ok

> We probably don't even know exhaustively all the species in the world that it might infect through having similar enough ACE-2 receptors, and you can't miss one.

The parallels with computer security are interesting here. Indeed, a single species missed and it would be matter of time before the whole circus would start over again. But at this point in time I do not believe there is a viable path to controlling the virus in the human population.

> And we've never eradicated a virus that has an animal reservoir.

Ok.

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#227
post #160
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they don't. The study that article references is hot garbage. https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/dumpster-diving-in-vaers-do...

"Garbage"? > In an FDA analysis of the Optum healthcare claims database, the estimated excess risk of myocarditis/pericarditis approached 200 cases per million fully vaccinated males 16-17 years of age and 180 cases per million fully vaccinated males 12-15 years of age. [1] This rate is close to the findings of the Høeg study (even higher, actually). [2] On the one side we have the FDA and multiple scholarly publicat…

Different data sets. The sentence preceding your quote from the FDA estimates rates of 71.5 and 42.6 per million using VAERS, vs. the garbage paper's 164 and 92 per million. i.e. less than half the incidence.

Regarding that other data set, see page 24 of this report: https://www.fda.gov/media/151733/download

Importantly, in relies on unconfirmed cases of myo/pericarditis, and concludes vaccine benefits outweigh risks even in a hypothetical worst case scenario anyway.

Hyperbolic language doesn't discredit any of the blogger's criticisms, but here's another more calmly worded one if you'd like: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/peer-review-of-a-vaers-dump...

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Your naive model of how the immune system works like a key and lock where if you change one of the pins then the vaccine stops working entirely is deeply flawed. That isn't fair on your part. The bit that you picked out is factually correct. It is also correct that the vaccines + previous immunity will give an improved chance at a positive outcome. But it's not the same as it was for the first wave, the vaccines we…

> But it's not the same as it was for the first wave, the vaccines were very specifically developed and tested in that setting and every future mutation had a worse response, due to attenuation due to time and mismatch with the target. Again this is just wrong. If you've been vaccinated then you have B-cells that match Omicron, even though you weren't vaccinated with Omicron's spike. Maybe my analogy didn't work, but…

That helps, thank you for taking the time to explain this.

Do you believe that there will be vaccine 'updates' (which especially for Moderna they were talking about from very early on), or is it that this mechanism is strong enough that until there is a real immune breakout we won't need them?

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#229

Finally some glimmers of hope in moving past Covid.. if Omicron continues on its current track of highly infectious but less serious —- and infection confers reactive immunity to a variety of strains, we could be closer to the endemic but manageable end game. Good vaccines + mild severity illness are basically the best case. What a stroke of luck that we are here vs a more infectious strain of Delta or some other nig…

Omicron's lower hospitalization rate is likely just due to vaccination and recovery from infection with Delta. Delta was transmissible enough to complete the vaccination program. Given that Omicron has higher viral loads, shorter serial interval and shorter incubation period than Delta, it is much more likely that Omicron is more intrinsically virulent as well and would be worse if you dropped it on a totally naive p…

It was shown in vitro to be 10x less effective at infecting lung cells vs epithelial cells (mucosal membranes). There’s more than prior immunity at play here. https://wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/current-affair...

Re: Children develop robust and sustained cross-reactive immunity after Covid

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure why we wouldn't be able to go back to normal, and taking a stance that we never will strikes me as somewhat defeatist. I'm more of an optimist. Having a small percentage of the population that's at greater risk of serious implications from infection (respiratory or otherwise) is something we've learned to live with before (see: the flu) without masks, mandates, or dramatically rearranging the way we live…

> I'm not sure why we wouldn't be able to go back to normal, There are no path back to normal unless the virus disappears. We have vaccines that work for a limited time, we'll soon have pills@home. It will still not be `back to normal`. > and taking a stance that we never will strikes me as somewhat defeatist. We'll also never have FTL spaceships or teleportation star trek style. > I'm more of an optimist. Having a s…

Reasonable people can disagree here, and I'm not convinced by the case you've put up. I remain a realistic optimist that this will become endemic and we'll put up with the risk as we have when the flu became endemic.

Of course the vaccine will help tremendously (relative to, e.g., retroviral STDs), as will the constant pressure for people to return to their normal lives.

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