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NSA Spied on Denmark as It Chose Its Future Fighter Aircraft: Report

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Re: NSA Spied on Denmark as It Chose Its Future Fighter Aircraft: Report

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Among reasons for the American spend (1) it helps to support the nuclear non-proliferation cause, and has historically been used to dissuade Australia and Japan and South Korea and West Germany from creating their own nuclear weapons programs; (2) because the US has historically guaranteed northern Europe against a USSR tank invasion, though this may no longer be relevant; (3) the US is security guarantor for much of…

>>" it helps to support the nuclear non-proliferation cause [..]" The non-proliferation cause it's another way of saying "we are the only one that should have nuclear capability". It doesn't look like to me that the USA is interested in a world without nuclear weapons (1), only in a world where the others don't have nuclear weapons. >>"If Europe is not freeloading, why was there so much negative reaction by European…

    > only in a world where the others don't
    > have nuclear weapons
It's a world where only Russia, (mainland) China, the US, France and the UK have nuclear weapons, in pursuit of a strategic balance.

    > If the problem is freeloading and defense, instead
    > of "business", why being against spending the money
    > in European military industry?
Yeah, it doesn't surprise me to hear the pentagon whinge about people spending money with other vendors.

On this theme - there was an interesting Foreign Policy paper arguing that the F35 program serves as a US version of the belt-and-roads initiative. Still, it must be half-decent or countries would not buy it. e.g. Australia is licensing its recent sub design from France. But, it is buying the F-35, despite the lock-in problems. Israel produces an astonishing amount of its own tech but, likewise, is buying the F-35.

    > I notice that you don't address the question
    > that Europe already spend more than Russia.
I thought my comments about the relevance of NATO to be a response to this. It is or it isn't, countries should decide. There are non-NATO European countries that spend less than 2%.

My themes in the original comment was the notion of the European military on two grounds. (1) If military goals were important, nations would/should have been lifting their weight in NATO. (2) There are obstacles to creating a command structure for a European military, which is a very weak federation.

Re: NSA Spied on Denmark as It Chose Its Future Fighter Aircraft: Report

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. France alone probably has sufficient military power to balance Russia. European countries can stand up to what is obviously unacceptable (industrial espionage conducted by US military intelligence). But Denmark in the later years have chosen not to.

Denmark is not France and Denmark has no guarantee that France would step in to stop a Russian invasion.

Why on Earth would Russia invade Denmark?

Re: NSA Spied on Denmark as It Chose Its Future Fighter Aircraft: Report

#223

The question is: Did the NSA spy on Danish companies for political reasons or industrial espionage reasons? I think the former is to be expected while the latter is not. As an aside.. say the NSA finds out some great industrial espionage info.. how do they actually give the information to the correct US companies? Drop a USB stick in front of the CEOs door?

Considering that any knowledge of importance in this context will go to the military–industrial complex, I don't think the act of actually sharing the information is an issue.

Re: NSA Spied on Denmark as It Chose Its Future Fighter Aircraft: Report

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The reason Europe is so dependent on the US is because European NATO members have for decades chosen not to honour their spending and capability obligations to that treaty. Certainly this includes Denmark. A quick google suggests this rich nation is spending 1.3% instead of the 2% minimum. That "treaty" was pushed to European nations, mafia style, and voted in by right-wing parties and politicians (sometimes right-…

Americans won't know this history. They also don't know that weak countries prefer to remain neutral rather than join NATO. Joining NATO also makes you a target. US tried hard to get everyone to join, including a fair bit of meddling in nation politics. Despite this neither Finland nor Sweden are in NATO.

Finland not being in NATO is more a result of it's successful strategy of surviving the cold war by sitting on the fence playing both sides [1]. Since the collapse of the USSR and Finland joining the EU the situation is quite different, but old habits, particularly successful ones, are hard to shake.

[1] One can of course speculate what would have happened if the cold war would have turned hot. Would ostensibly neutral Finland have been left alone, or would both NATO and the Warsaw Pact have nuked it just to be sure. Or would the massive nuclear strikes on the nearby Murmansk and Leningrad areas have caused such massive fallout that it would have been a moot point anyway?

Re: NSA Spied on Denmark as It Chose Its Future Fighter Aircraft: Report

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They know they can't do much to stand up against US. I may be wrong but I think Denmark's security is based on US millitary support through NATO. This applies to most EU countries. Russia is too threatening to upset your security guarantor. It's amazing how this Cold War old-wives-tale is still what Americans believe... Russia is not USSR - a superpower with half of Europe under its wings -, and is not a threat to…

If we don't frame things as countries needing to ally with the US out of fear of Russia\China, we may have to realize that countries are forced to ally with the US as the ones that don't end up overthrown or facing endless economic warfare like Venezuela/Iran.

The beauty is that we don't need to even think about that. Russia and China are bad actors anyway so in a way you could say they are strengthening the alliance between U.S and EU. Also EU is neither Venezuela nor Iran.

Re: NSA Spied on Denmark as It Chose Its Future Fighter Aircraft: Report

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Denmark is not France and Denmark has no guarantee that France would step in to stop a Russian invasion.

Why on Earth would Russia invade Denmark?

Because (if) it can. You know there was a time when Russia/SU annexed Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, right?

Re: NSA Spied on Denmark as It Chose Its Future Fighter Aircraft: Report

#227
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you look past the propaganda, basically there are a bunch of countries in the world. One would assume that Russia/North Korea/China/the UK/Kazakhstan/Somalia etc want to invade other places about as much as America does. So if you look at America's record for foreign 'Peacekeeping' it seems prudent to keep a sizeable army on hand to defend against the Russians. Places with strong armies invade places that aren't p…

Of course you need a strong army to protect your country so that your neighbors don't become hungry for what you have. However I resent the dumb propaganda that is served to us and has no basis in reality.

> I resent the dumb propaganda that is served to us and has no basis in reality

I suggest ignoring "geopolitics", and considering to what extent your input matters even in local political matters. If you find that such impact is minimal locally, then from a political consideration, it is a waste of your time to spend energy on "Russian threat" or any other geopolitical narrative (many dating to 19th century.) You should focus on your local issues.

Geopolitical policy is opaque to uninitiated and uninformed. It is not clear to me why the elite make a show of discussing geopolitics for the public at large. Join CFR in a meaningful capacity and you may get a whif of what actually are the dynamics and issues that drive international relations.

Re: NSA Spied on Denmark as It Chose Its Future Fighter Aircraft: Report

#228
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France has 222 active Leclercs, with 260 more in storage. Around 400 AMX variants too. Russia has around 300 known T90s, which are the real threat that matches a Leclerc. The rest are T80s, T72s and older, which, while absolutely dwarfing the french numbers, forgets about a tiny thing: they are absolutely _awful_ tanks compared to modern stuff. A Leclerc will happily shrug off T72s. Additionally, Rafales are more tha…

> forgets about a tiny thing: they are absolutely _awful_ tanks compared to modern stuff. The USSR beat the much better Nazi tanks through sheer numbers, at some point the numbers advantage overcomes the quality advantage.

Numbers, yes, but also quality. The T-34 when it appeared shocked the Germans. While it had significant flaws the basic tank characteristics like armor, firepower and mobility were very good for the time.

The Germans thought so highly of the T-34 that they thought of cloning it, but came to the conclusion that designing a new tank to counter it was in the end a more feasible idea. This process eventually resulted in the Panther, often thought to be the best tank of the entire war. Although in practice it was beset by reliability issues, and of course it was too little too late in general by then.

Getting back to the original topic, the lesson seems that for tank vs tank combat, large numbers of good enough tanks win the day. Now, the T-72 did disastrously poorly in the Gulf war, but OTOH apparently 'domestic' USSR T-72's have better armor to begin with than the export versions used in Iraq, and further upgraded ones with more armor and modern sensors might be a much harder nut to crack.

Re: NSA Spied on Denmark as It Chose Its Future Fighter Aircraft: Report

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The A-10 (or equivalent) is highly effective against tanks so it would probably come down to air superiority which the Russians would probably win easily against anyone not (china or US)

The A-10 (or equivalent) is highly effective against tanks France has no A10s and S500 allows Russia to deny airspace to it anyway.

I don't think you'd be using an S500 against an A-10 in any case..

Re: NSA Spied on Denmark as It Chose Its Future Fighter Aircraft: Report

#230
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France alone probably has sufficient military power to balance Russia. It depends on the theatre. At sea, probably, in a nuclear exchange France has sufficient deterrent capability. But in a land war, tank on tank the way God meant it to be, France’s 200 tanks are no match for Russia’s thousands. Remember purchasing power parity. Russia may be poorer than France, but it’s stuff costs a lot less too.

It's 2020, you don't need tank to tank when you can simply deploy tactical nuclear warheads against large numbers (strategic too but there's no need for that in this scenario).

There’s no such thing as a tactical nuclear exchange which does not escalate into a strategic nuclear exchange
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