Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

221–230 of 544 posts

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#221

Post by adjkant »

asdf21 wrote: post #204

I'm calling it now, I bet many people (>20%) have had it, whether they realize it or not. To be honest, I think it was all over the Bay Area in late December, Early January (when I'm pretty sure I had it) and Feb.

Given that Wuhan did not even report its first case publicly until the 31st, this seems highly unlikely. Even if you believe China was 15-30 days behind in reporting (pushing it) and that somehow a near patient zero traveler from there ended up in the bay, having it spread to "all over the bay" levels by late December would be incredibly contagious. No timeline supports your claim here.

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/08-04-2020-who-timeline...

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#222

Post by JshWright »

asdf21 wrote: post #204

I'm calling it now, I bet many people (>20%) have had it, whether they realize it or not. To be honest, I think it was all over the Bay Area in late December, Early January (when I'm pretty sure I had it) and Feb.

How do you explain the hospitalization rate not climbing until a couple months later?

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#223

Post by nradov »

ajross wrote: post #210
nradov wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your basis for claiming that the typical incubation period stated by the WHO is wrong? https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

It was the contention to which you were responding, in a conversation which was similarly challenging the WHO (and everyone else's) estimate on the severity. And I was pointing out that you can't do that, logically your argument was a tautology. The same effect you were arguing against would argue against your evidence.

You misunderstood my argument. I made no claim about severity. Merely than in about five days it will be clear which patients were presymptomatic versus asymptomatic.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#224

Post by ineedasername »

lbeltrame wrote: post #88
btilly wrote: post #27

This figure does not surprise me. It is in line with Iceland finding that 50% of people they tested were asymptomatic. However as https://www.propublica.org/article/what-we-need-to-understan... notes, in other samples about 75% of people who were asymptomatic at the time of the test went on to develop symptoms. So the fact that these sailors are currently asymptomatic does not mean that they will remain so. See https…

Are there any data on the severity of the symptoms? From what I've gathered, but without any hard data, in non-severe cases (i.e. not needing hospitalization) they can vary from a slight sore throat, dry cough and mild fever, to the same with a high fever and general sense of exhaustion.

Pretty much everyone I've heard talk about it that had it without being hospitalized still said it was the worst they've ever felt.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#225

Post by Spooky23 »

D-Coder wrote: post #198
henrikschroder wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No country except Iceland or South Korea knows how many are infected, everyone else's numbers are horribly wrong. But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. Sure, different countries are counting deaths differently, making it hard to compare them to each other, but the trajectories don't lie. And if you look at growth trajectories, no country is experiencing uncontrolled exponential growth at this point…

> death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. Death numbers are close but still have some uncertainty. New York for example is reporting much higher than usual numbers of people found dead at home. Not clear if they have been tested, if they are victims, or if maybe they had unrelated medical problems but couldn't/wouldn't go to a hospital under these circumstances.

Key thing in New York is that the protocol is about fever. You won’t be allowed in a doctors office unless confirmed negative, and you usually need a fever to get tested.

There are many scenarios where people in need of care won’t get it. It’s a vicious cycle and it’s fueling the ignorant rhetoric downplaying the broader issues.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#226

Post by drabadur »

joshuahedlund wrote: post #19
jbotz wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since about a week ago data has been coming in from antibody testing in Europe... and the results are that IFR (infection fatality rate) is clearly less than 0.5% (0.37% in one city in germany[1]) and the number of actually infected people at least 15 times to 30 times higher than the confirmed number of cases. [1] https://www.n-tv.de/wissen/Heinsberg-Studie-entraetselt-Coro...

I'm not so sure that's clear yet. Just going on blunt metrics, the virus has already killed 0.1% of NYC's entire population, probably on pace to hit 0.2% if the down-curve even only roughly matches the up-curve. So it would have had to have spread to 50% of the population for the fatality rate there to be only 0.4%, which seems unlikely (there's only a smattering of antibody data around the world so far but nothing h…

If people on here are so keen on calculating CFR and not R0 to estimate how bad the virus is, they should also take into account logistic and demographic problems of every area. Hence, the CFR of New York might be so bad because of terrible medical infrastructure in the first place, and additionally patients who are not willing to go to the hospital because of fear of bankrupting themselves. Certainly not saying this virus is "just like the flu" because it is not and it is killing a lot of people. But epidemiologically this is much more complex than all of us are able to understand as non-epidemiologists.

Also, here's are actual estimations of R0: http://www.dkriesel.com/corona

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#227

Post by danieltillett »

henrikschroder wrote: post #155
bhouston wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need widespread antigen testing in a place like Italy or NYC or Sweden. Would be so informative.

> or Sweden Please note that the reporting on Sweden from outside Sweden is completely bananas. The idea of how Sweden is handling the pandemic, alongside cherry-picked data, is being used to argue for whatever lockdown theory people seem to have. The facts though are that Sweden is not an outlier in any way shape or form. Compared to other European countries, Sweden is boringly in the middle of the pack, and showing…

Not compared to Norway. How did Norway have more cases a month ago and now Sweden has double and 10x as many deaths.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#228

Post by phkahler »

JshWright wrote: post #222
asdf21 wrote: post #204

I'm calling it now, I bet many people (>20%) have had it, whether they realize it or not. To be honest, I think it was all over the Bay Area in late December, Early January (when I'm pretty sure I had it) and Feb.

How do you explain the hospitalization rate not climbing until a couple months later?

There are 2 strains?

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#229

Post by infradig »

elSidCampeador wrote: post #219
londons_explore wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd take issue at the use of the word 'sailor', when it's been an awfully long time since the navy used sails to get into battle...

A sailor in the Navy is anyone that's not an officer

I would have thought seaman was the generic term. Sailor seems archaic in the context.

Re: Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

#230

Post by ImaCake »

zizee wrote: post #188
henrikschroder wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No country except Iceland or South Korea knows how many are infected, everyone else's numbers are horribly wrong. But death numbers and hospitalization numbers don't lie. Sure, different countries are counting deaths differently, making it hard to compare them to each other, but the trajectories don't lie. And if you look at growth trajectories, no country is experiencing uncontrolled exponential growth at this point…

> No country except Iceland or South Korea knows how many are infected, everyone else's numbers are horribly wrong. Is South Korea still consideered an outlier WRT testing regimes? Not to throw shade on their great efforts in leading the way, but many other countries now have extensive testing.

Australia has highest per-capita testing in the world. New Zealand is doing well. A number of other developed nations have been testing people since the start, but Australia and NZ have some added benefits of distance and relatively small populations that are helping them counter the pandemic better than most.
Post reply on HN