Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds • Hacker News Board

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#211

Post by aaron695 » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 2:21 PM UTC

lbeltrame wrote: post #164

atomi wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People seem to forget that the expected total death count from day 1 was, and still is, expected to be the same no matter what actions taken This is so wrong. One has to really wonder what motivates you. Mask wearing alone, a simple action, dramatically lowers predicted infection rates

There is yet no evidence that explicitly ties the use of a face mask to lower rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. A lot of the published evidence is either inconsistent, or indirect (measurement of droplets, but that doesn't take physical barriers like nose and mouth, or the viral load required to overcome the non adaptive immune system). In fact, it has been argued that non pharmacological interventions should be eval…

Hand washing won't help, we've always known this.

It will do something, in a very complicated way, but compared to things that really matter that we haven't been able to push like mask wearing(you disagree) and social distancing and being outside, hand washing has been a huge distraction, which is the same as saying it's helped increase the spread.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#212

Post by nickthemagicman » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 2:21 PM UTC

zorak wrote: post #199

lbeltrame wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is yet no evidence that explicitly ties the use of a face mask to lower rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. A lot of the published evidence is either inconsistent, or indirect (measurement of droplets, but that doesn't take physical barriers like nose and mouth, or the viral load required to overcome the non adaptive immune system). In fact, it has been argued that non pharmacological interventions should be eval…

Great explanation of the issues here: https://medium.com/incerto/the-masks-masquerade-7de897b517b7

This article is flawed in numerous ways.

"missing the compounding effect" - What about the compounding effect of numerous people putting a plague vector directly on their respiratory system?

"Mistaking Absence of Evidence for Evidence of Absence" - The argument isn't that because there's no evidence it's guaranteed to not work. The argument is that without solid evidence constitutional rights should not be infringed.

And on and on.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#213

Post by ls612 » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 2:25 PM UTC

davesque wrote: post #154

__blockcipher__ wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t it telling that they described a complete ban on gatherings for an entire age range a “minor sacrifice”? Really shows you how far the overton window shifted. Also doubly ironic that I got called paranoid for talking about what is literally happening right now, not what I fear might happen.

Also, here's another comment you made in this article: > It’s kind of like how everyone thinks that they would have opposed the Nazis because they grew up being taught that Nazis were bad. The truth is, this experiment in mass collective delusion has made it very clear which among us would have spoken out. > The ones reporting their neighbors for having a gathering or not wearing a mask while watering their lawn woul…

Aside from the part where I didn’t say that you had a good point.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#214

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 2:25 PM UTC

nimbleal wrote: post #206

atomi wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People seem to forget that the expected total death count from day 1 was, and still is, expected to be the same no matter what actions taken This is so wrong. One has to really wonder what motivates you. Mask wearing alone, a simple action, dramatically lowers predicted infection rates

I think parent’s point is that these measures are intended to stretch out the curve so the peak is lower (not overwhelming) but the area under the curve is the same (same total deaths). The hope is of course that a vaccine chops off its right tail.

[deleted]

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#215

Post by nickthemagicman » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 2:25 PM UTC

__blockcipher__ wrote: post #125

camel_Snake wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and it worked. it slowed the spread.

There is no evidence that the measures slowed the spread as compared to the natural dynamics of an infectious disease as immunity builds. Compare Sweden’s curve to New York’s for example.

The Corona Cult is going to baselessly discredit your ideas which are valid and accurate because they have no logical response. Please vote in November! Keep the fanatics from committing additional human rights violations!

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#216

Post by nickthemagicman » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 2:29 PM UTC

pvaldes wrote: post #196

thu2111 wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It actually didn't save anyone because there was never any risk of hospital overload when panic didn't set in: Sweden has one of the lowest ICU capacities in Europe and never saw hospital overload. A few places did, but that's because they over-reacted and quarantined lots of their medical staff. That's the reaction not the virus.

It does not matter so much if you die in the hospital or in your home, in the end you are still dead. Deterring people to go to the hospitals, that are destined to save lifes, so they die at home instead, is not brilliant advice. They can (and will) sell it as a success, but Swedden still had much more people killed than their twin country Norway. The fact that those hospital rooms where not occupied despite having s…

This is an arbitrary distinction to compare Sweden to Norway(who also had no mask mandate), cherry picked to fit your narrative.

Sweden had deaths on par with the average of all of European countries less than Italy, Spain, the UK, etc.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#217

Post by sigotirandolas » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 2:30 PM UTC

eesmith wrote: post #188

sigotirandolas wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that that the argument you made - i.e. that lower transmissibility aka. "flatten the curve" lowers total mortality in the SIR model - doesn't hold unless you assume that you can keep transmissibility down forever (and unless a vaccine or treatment comes out fast enough). That is, I'm not presenting a new argument, merely refuting your argument, over the SIR model you used, adding the assumption that trans…

The argument I make is that jb775's assertion at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24586075 ("People seem to forget that the expected total death count from day 1 was, and still is, expected to be the same no matter what actions taken") is wrong. I say it's wrong because months ago I heard arguments that models predicted that lowering the curve could also reduce total mortality. And I linked to that video to give…

Fair enough, I understand your point better now. I also remember hearing a lot of arguments for lowering the curve lowering overall deaths back in March - either by heavily suppression or elimination of spread, or by a vaccine or effective treatment.

Nowadays it seems both EU & US hasn't pursued heavy suppression (probably too costly, and legally and culturally difficult), but rather just hoping to keep it somewhat under control until a vaccine comes, hopefully.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#218

Post by pvaldes » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 2:31 PM UTC

thu2111 wrote: post #192

ddingus wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The basis for it was reducing impact on health care systems, and to limit second, and future wave impact. Doing the first saved a lot of people because treatment was available. Secondary saves were non covid patients who could get service because capacity remained more available. Had we had better safety compliance, we would have reduced even more than we did and may have normalized things such that the wave upon us…

It actually didn't save anyone because there was never any risk of hospital overload when panic didn't set in: Sweden has one of the lowest ICU capacities in Europe and never saw hospital overload. A few places did, but that's because they over-reacted and quarantined lots of their medical staff. That's the reaction not the virus.

To add context, If Swedden would have the same population as Spain, the number of killed people at the current ratio would be 26907. In Czechia (a country with a similar population that Swedden) would be 2489 instead. Less than ten times lower.

Swedden has not such stellar results as they are trying to sell.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#219

Post by SpicyLemonZest » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 2:47 PM UTC

MagnumOpus wrote: post #201

yanks215 wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. And do we trust China’s numbers? I thought it was an unspoken fact that no one cites their data in legitimate media, since it is heavily manipulated.

Do you trust Taiwan’s data? They contained and eradicated the disease even more effectively than the Beijing regime, without thousands of deaths and millions of infections. So clearly there are ways to check the spread and cut out 99% of deaths. (They are also not wizardry or witchcraft. Mandatory masks in public, temp measurement at schools and public buildings, quarantines at entry and positive diagnosis enforced e…

But I think we're getting off track from the original discussion here. I strongly suspect Taiwanese disease control experts would identify a quarantine policy applying only to a specific 4 year age bracket as what a commenter upthread described as "half-ass measures"; a serious attempt to control the virus would have to apply to everyone, since everyone can spread it.

Re: Boulder prohibits gatherings of any size for 18-22 year olds

#220

Post by pvaldes » Fri, Sep 25, 2020, 2:48 PM UTC

nickthemagicman wrote: post #216

pvaldes wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does not matter so much if you die in the hospital or in your home, in the end you are still dead. Deterring people to go to the hospitals, that are destined to save lifes, so they die at home instead, is not brilliant advice. They can (and will) sell it as a success, but Swedden still had much more people killed than their twin country Norway. The fact that those hospital rooms where not occupied despite having s…

This is an arbitrary distinction to compare Sweden to Norway(who also had no mask mandate), cherry picked to fit your narrative. Sweden had deaths on par with the average of all of European countries less than Italy, Spain, the UK, etc.

Take in mind that the family structure is different in South and North Europe. Southern Europe homes are often multigenerational. Having gransons and grandpas living together increases the risk. Many granpas live alone in Swedden. Their results would be even worse if we remove this structural difference.

If we can't compare Swedden With Norway, maybe you would prefer Denmark?

645 danish killed versus 5875 Sweddish. Even if we correct the difference in population, is still much lower (around 1290 versus 5875). They are not much different populations genetically. Do you have any hypothesis that would explain the difference?