Who wants to wager it will down by more than 50% by June this year? Note: (current value at USD 49K time of post)
Market is open. Go wager.
Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
201–210 of 226 posts
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#202Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#203Makes sense. Most of the folks who have been in Bitcoin 6+ years have observed multiple crashes, exchanges going bust, Bitcoins vanishing into the ether (no pun intended), and people being unable to recover their assets. People hold Bitcoin as insurance against the dollar collapsing. It makes no sense to assume that both Bitcoin and dollars will be circulating currencies: currency is a winner-take-all market, the mos…
> currency is a winner-take-all market You are aware of other currencies,let's say the Euro, right?
Like other winner-take-all markets, it splits into multiple winner-take-all markets when their are natural (or let's say "national") boundaries. Note that we don't still have deutschemarks, francs, guilders, schillings, lira, peseta, and escudo, though. The network effects of having a single currency are big enough that 19 nations were willing to give up their national currency.
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#204One point as a researcher working in a central bank and studying state-of-the art macroeconomic theory, is the absolute conviction that some crypto holders have that society is rotten to the core and that the financial industry (and for that matter the broader well established large cap economy) is a malfunctioning/rotten machine only benefiting the 1%. I mean reading journals on monetary policy transmission, central…
1) This is a clickbait headline. TFA doesn't say there's a 50% chance of a collapse tonight. It says there's a 50% chance of collapse at some point in the next year. 2) TFA also says the reason Bitcoin futures are contango (6 month contract costs more than 3 month contract) on the Chicago Merc is because of counterparty risk with Bitcoin exchanges. But it also says there's zero counterparty risk with the Chicago Merc…
> We should immediately discount stories about cryptoassets from any site that can't manage to set up a TLS cert.
Very interesting conclusion. Let me see if I can follow along:
Adding an SSL cert = SSL
SSL = encryption
EnCRYPTion = CRYPTocurrency
Cryptocurrency = Bitcoin implementation
Bitcoin implementation = Bitcoin price
Yes, I see now how they're equivalent.
The article definitely is hand-wavy and there are other reasons to be skeptical but conclusions like this rarely help the situation.
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
You seem to be lacking an understanding of the most basic principles of bitcoin, ie permissionless decentralization backed by proof of work which would not function with existing SQL databases.
no im saying the actual practical use. keeping track of who owns what can be accomplished way better with a centralized database. the only thing novel is that its decentralized and inefficient but the average user really doesnt care about that.
What if the central database gets hacked? What if someone does a double-spend? What if the person in charge of the central database decides to redistribute everyone's money or decides to revalue it? What if a transaction fails or someone makes a mistake? How do we know we can trust the owner of said database? What if the central database gets wiped or corrupted?
These are some of the problems with centralization that decentralization solves. The original Satoshi white paper calls out many of these use cases. Part of the reason bitcoin is exploding in value again is because the US government is inflating everyone's money.
This is before even getting into applications of smart contracts...
Congratulations on your successful investment (that's not something I would recommend publicizing though)...
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#206Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#207I am personally long on Bitcoin. Such a crash is just a buying opportunity. I don’t even consider any part of speculating Bitcoin value on a time horizon less than 10 years.
Huh. When did you start buying your first ones? I just started recently but I don't know how much should I spend more just to be long on Bitcoin.
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#208Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#209As I watch the total crypto market cap shoot through the roof over the past year, one thing I've been wondering is what will stop a global "bank run" on the exchanges when/if something like this does happen? I was reading thru Coinbase's own insurance wording, and it's clear they dance around it by saying: To the extent these funds are held as USD in U.S. banks, they are maintained as pooled custodial accounts at one…
Coinbase doesn't use Tether to store customer funds, they are straight USD or the BTC/ETH itself. I'm not sure how a "bank run", or heavy withdrawal of USD, would cause any more problems than processing delays.
That's a bit of a lack of imagination.
What happens is any USDT-BTC exchanges utterly collapse. The price there shoots up to hundreds of thousands of USDT per BTC, those BTC all flood to legitimate exchanges like Coinbase, and deplete their USD. If you believe as I do there's way more USDT printed than backed USD anywhere in the system, Coinbase will dry up too. The price will drop to pennies per BTC on Coinbase.
Then there's a ton of bag holders with BTC, and literally no USD to exchange them for. Plenty of USDT though.
This is what the 2% per month risk premium is about.
Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%
#210Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah. There are storage costs. Primarily the counterparty risk associated with current custody solutions.
You might contain this risk with m-of-n wallet signatures. The real risk is asset volatility.
The real risk is Tether. Always has been.
If there's way more USDT than USD in the system, because let's say the Tether folks are printing USDT, buying Bitcoin with them, then selling them on Coinbase for cash...
What happens is USDT-BTC exchanges, the price skyrockets to millions of USDT per BTC. You transfer to Coinbase and try and sell there, but the price collapses to pennies.