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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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171–180 of 226 posts

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#171
post #131
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin is useful for what? Getting around the law? For pumping and dumping?

If you don’t trust your own gov, wether because they’re a bunch of crooks or you’re doing smth fishy, it’s useful.

Cryptocurrency is good for that. Bitcoin had a $28 AVERAGE transaction fee for the day four days ago. It is worthless for anything except for off chain speculation. No other crypto currency has this problem since this was done intentionally to cripple bitcoin.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#172
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ulbrich was never convicted of a violent crime. (Though plenty of evidence did show he tried to commit murder-for-hire.) He was convicted of money laundering, conspiracy to commit computer hacking, and conspiracy to traffic narcotics.[1] For this he was sentenced to two life sentences plus 40 years. > Not to mention that all the major mining pools have voluntarily chosen to collaborate with governments on censoring t…

Sure, here is a great article by Juraj Bednar (close the slushpool people): https://juraj.bednar.io/en/blog-en/2020/11/12/how-could-regu... BTW Juraj is a great source on anything crypto-related. And from what I now there has been no resistance from the pools so far (at least the EU/US-based ones, though in China it is probably even more difficult.)

That post explains how it might be possible for someone with 10% of mining power (and 100% of legal power) to block certain transactions. Nowhere in that post does it claim that such an attack has succeeded or that mining pools are collaborating with governments.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#173
post #137

One point as a researcher working in a central bank and studying state-of-the art macroeconomic theory, is the absolute conviction that some crypto holders have that society is rotten to the core and that the financial industry (and for that matter the broader well established large cap economy) is a malfunctioning/rotten machine only benefiting the 1%. I mean reading journals on monetary policy transmission, central…

1) This is a clickbait headline. TFA doesn't say there's a 50% chance of a collapse tonight. It says there's a 50% chance of collapse at some point in the next year.

2) TFA also says the reason Bitcoin futures are contango (6 month contract costs more than 3 month contract) on the Chicago Merc is because of counterparty risk with Bitcoin exchanges. But it also says there's zero counterparty risk with the Chicago Merc. So who cares about sketchy Bitcoin exchanges when you could just buy the CME 3-month, sell the CME 6-month, roll it every month and pocket the premium?

3) We should immediately discount stories about cryptoassets from any site that can't manage to set up a TLS cert.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has a social network effect of people who agree that it's the store of value for the future. Your paper dollar bill has very little intrinsic value. It's just a shared acceptance.

Uh, my paper dollar is backed by the might of the US government and the US economy. It's a lot more than just "shared acceptance". Countries couldn't just switch off the US dollar reserve currency for international trade without massive economic repercussions, which is why no country or set of countries has developed a viable alternative to the dollar for a global reserve currency. It's not like China/Russia wouldn't…

> Hell a large chunk of internal European trade is still done in dollars on the back-end.

No. Internal trade is balanced with target2.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#175
post #124
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe the opposite to be accurate, as we have seen in the past.

> as we have seen in the past To what do you refer here?

Korea banning BTC i think? Unless its china? the price dropped a lot.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#176
post #73

Don't know if anyone else made this mistake but: author is not saying bitcoin will 50/50 collapse tonight just some night this year. > So the next time someone tries to explain to you that “Bitcoin is a store of value”, when the chances of it getting utterly destroyed overnight before the year is over are around 50/50, try not to shoot coffee through your nose laughing. EDIT: Not saying I agree with the prediction, i…

What are the odds of a 50/50 yoy event not happening for 11 years straight?

0.5**11

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#177
post #154

The whole "hackernews desperately up-voting any post that cast's negative light on the investment opportunity that they missed" shtick is getting old. We get it, a lot of you knew about bitcoin in 2011 and did not buy in. Now, you are seeing it rise (and fall) over and over and are frustrated that you did not buy a couple hundred dollars worth of bitcoin 8 years ago.

It seems very cynical and kind of unlike this page as I got to know it over the past few years, but I struggle to come up with another reason as to why a blog post by someone named "Trolly McTrollface" would be upvoted to the front page.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of the people I know who were an-cap 10 years ago are millionaires today. At least from my circle. The problem is that the money-printing people are billionaires and it is a game you simply cannot win. And frankly, these days being a millionaire is not as fancy as it sounds - you can barely get a nice 7-series + a bit above average flat and living off investments/rent would require a very frugal lifestyle.

Can barely buy a 7 series... Frugal lifestyle... Move out of the Bay Area, buy a nice house, get a Tesla model 3 performance, it’s faster and cheaper than the 7 series, and maybe reconsider what’s in your lifestyle that’s so expensive that being a millionaire is barely making it.

I have never in my life been to SV - I live in Prague. $1mil is 25 million Czech Crowns. A nice 7-series (slower than model 3, but much more comfortable - this is what I care about) is ~4 million. You have 21 left. You buy this flat (https://www.bezrealitky.cz/nemovitosti-byty-domy/649275-nabi..., I won't mention the 3% property-transfer tax out of politeness...) and you're broke. If you're the saving/money-wise type this is your nightmare.

So, you don't quite need to live in SanFran in order to not consider $1,000,000 serious money.

Yes, I could go back to my home town of Sofia, but even there 1 mil won't take me too far (certainly not make me an all-mighty mogul, this is 100x times of capital volume away. and if we're talking about buying journos and influecing public opinion, then - 1000x of capital volume). And to be honest I envy people in urban areas such as Austin (ČR is rated ~150th in the world (between Zimbabwe and Botswana) on granting construction permits) for having a real supply-demand based housing market, where you are not getting brutally punished for wanting to raise a family.

And yes, I currently live off rent, take only gigs I consider meaningful (currently hoping to get in Fidelity IT), but drive an 8-year old 530xi and live in a rented 3-bedroom flat as I expect my BTC to grow in value quicker than real estate (as has been the case in the past 8 years). This is the frugal lifestyle I mean.

P.S. Anyway - cheers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJbgNvP47-0

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#179
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold doesn't have earnings releases either.

It at least is tied to a physical thing. There are then limits to how high gold can go in price as higher prices means more will come to the market to sell it because the higher prices are not viewed as sustainable. Whereas with bitcoin, it is fairly unmoored from physical constraints. There is no natural price for bitcoin. It could go up forever or drop to nothing and both are acceptable valuations that would be har…

Chuck .E Cheese tokens are tied to a physical thing.

All money, currency and assets are based on faith on the continuing demand for that thing. All the other properties are incidental.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#180
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would suggest gaining additional technical familiarity about block chains if you genuinely believe they are equivalent to centralized relational databases. That's just flat-out incorrect and untrue.

i bought bitcoin and understood block chains in 2013. just because someone disagrees with you doesn’t mean they are dumb. and maybe sometimes you’re the one that doesn’t know what you’re talking about

You seem to be lacking an understanding of the most basic principles of bitcoin, ie permissionless decentralization backed by proof of work which would not function with existing SQL databases.
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