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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#11

Post by jMyles »

bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

> I could see it being banned by the US government and others...

It's difficult to imagine this causing the price to go any direction other than up.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#12

Post by solosoyokaze »

HarryHirsch wrote: post #10
bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

it is intrinsically valuable How? As an intrinsically valuable means of speculation because sound investment opportunities are absent?

It has a social network effect of people who agree that it's the store of value for the future. Your paper dollar bill has very little intrinsic value. It's just a shared acceptance.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#13

Post by ffggvv »

bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

then what happened in 2018 and 2013 where it lost 90% of its value?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#15

Post by llcoolv »

ashtonkem wrote: post #8
1-6 wrote: post #2

It'll just bring buyers back into the game when it's at a 50% discount.

“Crashes are just discounts” is one of the more pernicious financial memes around.

and the hodl-gang's interpretation: "dips exist only so that coins could go from weak hands to strong hands" :D

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#18

Post by anm89 »

ffggvv wrote: post #13
bhouston wrote: post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

then what happened in 2018 and 2013 where it lost 90% of its value?

What happened to Amazon in the two cases where it has drawn down 90% from a high?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#19

Post by SV_BubbleTime »

aminozuur wrote: post #14

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

I’m far more selfish, I would just like to hear amateur investors stop talking about it. I’d really like for people to stop suggesting a database (blockchain) will fix any problem, even when problems are explicitly not database issues. I think we’re well past either of those things being possibilities though.
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