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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#201
post #141
post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

My reasoning for thinking this is worthy of panic:

I recently moved to China. The PRC has good numbers (internally) and knows more about COVID-19's severity and risk profile than anyone else. And, on the ground, the PRC is putting the entire country on what amounts to wartime footing (in a way that's unimaginable to most HN readers), to the point that it's willing to sacrifice a quarter or more worth of economic production because the alternative is potentially worse.

It's managed to be successfully contained here (it's been some time since I saw any corpses ferried out of my apartment complex), but Western countries, let alone developing countries, simply lack the state capacity to respond as decisively and effectively as China has.

I'm hoping Spring ends up curtailing the pandemic; letting warmer temperatures do their work requires slowing down the virus' spread as much as possible, and that requires significant disruptions to people's everyday lives.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#202
post #181
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

If my original post gave off the impression of being conspiracy-theory-driven, I want to apologize, because that wasn't the intent. My original post aimed at clarifying that death rates in exponentially spreading diseases that have a lag between infection and possible recovery and death is a tricky topic, and that the numbers generally reported seem to not take this nuance into account. I think collecting accurate da…

Yet your post seemed to hint at willful manipulation of data, which isn't something for which there is reliable concrete evidence for, and which in my view is adding to the paranoia. The line of thinking for eg:, Chinese numbers are untrustworthy, WHO numbers are untrustworthy etc, is very frequently echoed by the western press, and even here in HN.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#203
post #39
post #35

People, if you haven’t yet go get the seasonal flu vaccine. Reduces burden on strained ops and your risk of getting double tapped

Isn't this something you can only get if you are in at risk group? I can't go to my doctor and just get a flu shot, I don't think?

In America, everyone should get it unless your doctor tells you not to.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#204
post #181
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

If my original post gave off the impression of being conspiracy-theory-driven, I want to apologize, because that wasn't the intent. My original post aimed at clarifying that death rates in exponentially spreading diseases that have a lag between infection and possible recovery and death is a tricky topic, and that the numbers generally reported seem to not take this nuance into account. I think collecting accurate da…

Didn't want to make it sound like you are promoting a conspiracy, sorry, it's just that everyone treats the numbers as somehow manipulated. My point is that the current numbers are all that we have - we are mostly technical people here - looking at them, there is no obvious statistical anomaly to say that yes, China is hiding something from us. Maybe the numbers are not fully accurate, and it's too early to tell, but these are the stats that we have, there is no reason for jumping on the bandwagon and questioning everything now. You can't really hide things at this global scale, no government wants to bomb its economy and cause an epidemic by hiding the infections, I just think that people/countries handling this are overwhelmed and not prepared, there is no malice. It would be good for people to be rational about this and help others be properly informed, and right now it looks more like a desire in a lot of places for something big or bad to happen, I don't see some worried, more like hungry for bad news.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#205
post #141
post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

What level of expected infections and deaths would justify their panic, and how much do your estimates differ from those numbers?

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#206

I wish there was statistics available on mortality for people taking immunosuppressants (secondary immunosuppression).

Very interesting point, although this population should be very small (people with transplants or treating rheumatic deseases with biologicals).

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#207
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the case of the Diamond Princess, all infections, mild to severe, have been identified. Out of ~800 infected, 4 have died, which suggests that with the best case scenario the mortality rate is 0.5%. This also should be read with the context that cruise ship passengers tend to be older. Also, that number will climb a bit. The biggest risk isn't the bare mortality rate when properly treated, but the actual mortality…

I think it’s also safe to assume that all ~3,700 people onboard were exposed to the virus, so it gives an idea of the exposure vs infection rate as well.

Agreed. Hypothetically, there was a quarantine going on, but it was pretty half assed.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#208
post #39
post #35

People, if you haven’t yet go get the seasonal flu vaccine. Reduces burden on strained ops and your risk of getting double tapped

Isn't this something you can only get if you are in at risk group? I can't go to my doctor and just get a flu shot, I don't think?

In the US, you can get the flu shot at Wall-Greens. No doctor visit necessary. Insurance usually covers the entire cost, but I think it’s pretty cheap otherwise.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, though that's mostly rolled up in the gender statistics. Men are far more likely smokers than women in China. Mentioned in TFA.

Is the F in 'TFA' what I think it is?

Yes, you're right. It's "featured".

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#210
post #52

There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. The first hypothesis is likely based on the number of infections found in international travellers who went to Iran. We still cannot rule out the second hypothesis though. A 23-year-old woman soccer player: http…

Could be many reasons: 1. Iran has more young people. 2. Iran does not have any monitoring program of significance 3. Young people in Iran are probably more mobile and more likely to contract it.

> 1. Iran has more young people.

Just wondering if that's true. It does look like that's the case:

https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$geo$/$...

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