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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#111
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doctors and nurses are exposed to a much higher viral load than most people. In Wuhan, they may also overwork and have insufficient sleep.

> higher viral load What is "higher viral load"? Isn't it binary - you are either infected or not?

Agree but they may also be constantly reinfected.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#112
post #52

There seems to be many cases of young patients dying in Iran. Either because there are way more cases than being officially reported or (hopefully not) the virus has mutated to affect the young more, or both. The first hypothesis is likely based on the number of infections found in international travellers who went to Iran. We still cannot rule out the second hypothesis though. A 23-year-old woman soccer player: http…

Citing individual deaths is sort of meaningless without an idea of how many people are sick. I suspect it’s in the many thousands in Iran already.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the who presentation, Dr Bruce Aylward mentioned this. I'll try to dig up the exact spot in the clip for you. At 1:07:44 this is discussed in depth: https://youtu.be/-o0q1XMRKYM

Thanks for the link! He says that there have been door to door testing of temperatures, and I'd nitpick by saying that's not quite the same thing as testing everyone for the virus, but it is better coverage than I had realised.

Surprised! I worry about unintended consequences. During an epidemic, officials visit every home! Potentially spreading the virus unintentionally thru healthcare personnel. Don't know if I'd open the door to somebody who admits having visited thousands of people before getting to me...

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#114
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/infected) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. On the other hand, there are also a lot of infected who only have a mild version and are never checked and recorded, which swings it in the other direction. Edit: Seems like the parent post later edited their post to mention the above.

In the hardest hit areas like Wuhan, almost everyone has been tested.

[deleted]

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#116

This is the email I sent my team last night. We should consider working from home. You may all have seen the news by now. A patient was just diagnosed with COVID-19 at UC Davis after having no known contact with anyone travelling. Importantly, they were diagnosed after being intubated already for 7 days. It is suspected that this is the first known case of public transmission of the virus in the US. From what we know…

Seems like a pretty strong overreaction. The flu leads to about half a million hospitalizations in the US each year, while COVID-19 has lead to dozens. So your team is thousands of times more likely to transmit the flu then COVID-19 - even if COVID-19 is 50x more dangerous, it is far more likely that your team will cause hospitalizations due to the flu. I don't see why anyone should be taking precautions for COVID-19 that they weren't already taking for the flu if they are in the US.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#118
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doctors and nurses are exposed to a much higher viral load than most people. In Wuhan, they may also overwork and have insufficient sleep.

> higher viral load What is "higher viral load"? Isn't it binary - you are either infected or not?

If you’re infected by a couple of individual viruses, it’ll take a while before it starts spreading throughout your body, which will have more time to prove an immune response. Compared to essentially bathing yourself in it for days at a time.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And screencapped image: https://imgur.com/a/Ve5gT3O (posted by me)

What would explain kids being so immune? ~1000 confined cases under 19 year old while you have 10 000 50-59 year olds?

This is the aspect of the disease that is so interesting to me. With many diseases, like the flu, the most at risk are the elderly and the very young. But barely 1% of infections in China are children younger than 10, and 0 deaths.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#120
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doctors and nurses are exposed to a much higher viral load than most people. In Wuhan, they may also overwork and have insufficient sleep.

> higher viral load What is "higher viral load"? Isn't it binary - you are either infected or not?

afaik viral infections increase at an exponential rate. If the initial load is higher, the peak infection before your immune system can get things under control will be much higher/dangerous.

Ex: 3^10 v.s. 30^10

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