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Scotland to seek second independence referendum

bbc.com

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Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#201

Post by rwmj »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #172
rwmj wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of the hippocratic oath is "first do no harm". We could usefully extend that to politicians. The UK government has, in 7 or 2 years depending on how you count, set the UK on a path to destruction -- and it was all very predictable.

>The UK government // That's short-hand of course for the "UK people's democratically expressed will". FWIW I don't vote conservative, nor support Brexit; but we can't solely blame the elite cabals - as this sort of phrasing tends to do - the demos are complicit.

People were led on by millionaire politicians and billionaire newspaper owners who flat out lied during the referendum. Politicians have been blaming immigrants and "benefit scroungers" for problems which are really caused by austerity. It would be nice to have an informed demos who could look past all that, but we don't right now.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#202

Post by aembleton »

JMCQ87 wrote: post #195
Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

"My only concern for Scotland is that they wouldn't be able to gain (re-gain?) EU membership then would be left out on their own for many years." Why? How? Scotland would easily fulfill the requirements to join pretty much right away and the EU needs good news and would be able to sell that as something positive, so they have clear incentives to make it happen ASAP. Scotland also would be a net contributing country.

Because Madrid doesn't want to bolster the Catalonian independence movement.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/27/scottish-in...

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#203

Post by ghaff »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #172
rwmj wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of the hippocratic oath is "first do no harm". We could usefully extend that to politicians. The UK government has, in 7 or 2 years depending on how you count, set the UK on a path to destruction -- and it was all very predictable.

>The UK government // That's short-hand of course for the "UK people's democratically expressed will". FWIW I don't vote conservative, nor support Brexit; but we can't solely blame the elite cabals - as this sort of phrasing tends to do - the demos are complicit.

That's because people are comforted that when a majority of people disagree with them and vote for outcomes they don't like it's obviously either because they were misled or manipulated (or they're racists).

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#204

Post by selectodude »

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #131
pjc50 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> UK has a powerful economy (number 5 in the world) Not 5th any more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4056296/India-overta... (yes the mail is unreliable but I thought I'd pick the most Brexity source)

Looks like India's recent growth have edged them out, but I just want to point out that's why, not because the UK is falling. Its just India is, finally, catching up to the rest of the world. This is good news for India and doesn't take away from the UK. Also, remember we're talking about an economy of merely 65m people that chimes in at 6th. UK GDP growth fits in at almost 2% which is where the USA sits at as well a…

UK GDP growth is almost entirely due to financial services and legal sectors in London, who just received the official notification that London is no longer the banking center of Europe.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#205

Post by tim333 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #86
byefruit wrote: post #6

What a legacy Cameron has left. Alienation of our nearest neighbours and the likely dissolution of the Union. It's also looking likely that Brexit will cause problems for the Northern Ireland peace arrangement.

It's incredible when you consider Queen Elizabeth's reign. From visiting India as a British realm to overseeing the dissolution of the Union itself.

I guess that's democracy for you if you let people a vote on it. I wouldn't be surprised if California left Trumpland if it was on the ballot.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#206

Post by zigzigzag »

pjc50 wrote: post #193
sambeau wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclaimer: I'm a child of English parents who was born in Wales but grew up in Scotland. I have Scottish and English children, in-laws and cousins. I have a family home in Scotland but I currently live in England. My children live in England and Scotland. Some of us live in Italy. What a fucking mess of a total fucking disaster. None of this needed to happen and it's a total nightmare for me and my family. If this g…

The economics are very disputable - the UK doesn't do regional apportionment of tax collection other than (just now) income tax, so not everyone believes the GERS number of £9bn. And now it's even more disputable with Brexit: what farm subsidies will Scotland recieve, for example? What's the future cuts scenario for the UK? What happens if the rUK starts mass deportation of EU nationals? Parts of England are a few Da…

I think that's nonsense. The GERS figures were accepted beforehand by the SNP themselves, and they're the best available. Even if they're out by 10% that's still a massive financial hole Scotland is looking at. Of course nationalists will now decide that the figures are inconvenient and so must be wrong, but their track record on economics isn't great - their prior plan involved building their fairer, kinder Scotland on the back of oil revenues which are now gone (and they ignored the decommissioning costs anyway).

The UK is not "a few Daily Mail stories" away from burning down Pakistani corner shops, Pakistani immigration having nothing to do with Brexit whatsoever of course. That's the kind of ridiculously over the top drama that lost the referendum, and it boils down to a form of racism itself: a belief that white English people are just horrible and ignorant, in defiance of all the facts (the UK is one of the most racially diverse countries in Europe).

Finally, I don't know what kind of independence campaign you remember, but the SNP I know practically defines itself through racist hatred of the English. Their entire argument for an independent Scotland seems to boil down to "we hate the awful Tory voting English".

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#207

Post by maze-le »

sambeau wrote: post #149
untog wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

London independence would surely only come with the complete collapse of the UK. Or it becoming an EU-like organisation. And that's not entirely impossible - there are enough regional independence movements that it's possible to imagine it. Much more likely, though, is that everyone argues about it for decades and nothing happens.

Total collapse of the UK is looking quite possible. - Scotland is likely to go (despite what the polls say right now) - Northern Ireland is quite likely to join Ireland - God knows what Wales is going to do

Northern Ireland is a very tricky issue. Despite the majority in vote against Brexit, there is an almost 50/50 divide between pro-british unionists and pro-irish nationalists. As far as I understand it, the government in Belfast has been a close cooperation between both sides since 1998. If that cooperation breaks down no one knows what is about to happen, but many fear that the violence of the 'Troubles' might return, a prospect no one but the extreme hardliners really want.

So, I don't think it is as simple as: 'Northern Ireland is quite likely to join Ireland'.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#208

Post by smcl »

jcranmer wrote: post #189
Gravityloss wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't Scotland get a lot of money from oil and gas?

North Sea wells are declining.

True but that's been known for a while - and afaik there hasn't been a definitive "oil will run out in 20xx" answer. Main thing hurting right now is the global slump in oil price hammering the North East - to be fair all of this does suggest that Scotland needs to focus on diversifying into renewables and tech but that was always the plan. It's just kinda irritating that this has come up now as it's a convenient stick to beat the pro-EU left with.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#209

Post by zigzigzag »

ceejayoz wrote: post #143
df3 wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couldn't a speedy entry process be negotiated? My guess though is that the EU won't be keen on the UK splitting up and thus won't encourage it by providing Scotland a quick ascension. This is also a wonderful bargaining chip for the EU to play against Theresa May in negotiating the terms of the UK's exit.

> This is also a wonderful bargaining chip for the EU to play against Theresa May in negotiating the terms of the UK's exit. Yup. "You lot can leave, but we'll take Scotland. Your choice."

You're assuming the EU will want it.

Germans are going to face a large hike in their contributions to the EU in the next few years as the UK leaves, as the EU appears to be utterly incapable of actually spending less (despite now having diminished responsibility). That's just not in its nature.

So then Scotland comes along. The best available data says it's an economic basket case significantly worse than Greece. The UK subsidises it to a great extent for historical and cultural reasons that don't apply to Germany. Meanwhile, 40% of Scotland voted out of the EU as well.

If you're German and already questioning whether you should be subsidising lots of low productivity high debt Mediterranean countries, does the thought of waiving the entry requirements and then paying even more taxes to subsidise a new Greece appeal to you?

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#210

Post by pjc50 »

zigzigzag wrote: post #206
pjc50 wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The economics are very disputable - the UK doesn't do regional apportionment of tax collection other than (just now) income tax, so not everyone believes the GERS number of £9bn. And now it's even more disputable with Brexit: what farm subsidies will Scotland recieve, for example? What's the future cuts scenario for the UK? What happens if the rUK starts mass deportation of EU nationals? Parts of England are a few Da…

I think that's nonsense. The GERS figures were accepted beforehand by the SNP themselves, and they're the best available. Even if they're out by 10% that's still a massive financial hole Scotland is looking at. Of course nationalists will now decide that the figures are inconvenient and so must be wrong, but their track record on economics isn't great - their prior plan involved building their fairer, kinder Scotland…

> the SNP I know practically defines itself through racist hatred of the English

This is in direct contradiction of my experience of being English (RP accent and all) at Indyref events and the SNP conference itself. There's maybe one or two fringe old guys who are actually anti-English and everyone else finds it embarrasing and is genuinely friendly.

Everyone does hate the Tories though.

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