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Scotland to seek second independence referendum

bbc.com

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Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#141

Post by untog »

vidarh wrote: post #126
Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

> I want to leave too! There was a brief desire to start an independence movement for London... It might very well happen (starting a group, not independence itself - if that ever happens it'll be decades) if Brexit gets too nasty and Scotland leaves and causes rest-UK to be even more hostile to our concerns.

London independence would surely only come with the complete collapse of the UK. Or it becoming an EU-like organisation. And that's not entirely impossible - there are enough regional independence movements that it's possible to imagine it.

Much more likely, though, is that everyone argues about it for decades and nothing happens.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#142

Post by ruairidhwm »

pm90 wrote: post #123
ruairidhwm wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disclaimer: I'm Scottish Really appreciate the well-wishing on it. I would love for there to still be a very open relationship between the two countries. We've got plenty of space up here and a booming tech scene! Agreed on clarification with the EU membership but I think this is something that the SNP have been working on and that we can expect to see follow-up announcements. Interesting times!

Interesting to see what might happen post Brexit if Scotland does become Independent and stays in the EU. London has been a great place for International companies to set up shop to access the EU market and labor force...I wonder if they will simply relocate to Scotland? England only business matters could also be handled from within Scotland itself.

It'd be very easy to set up parallel legal structures in Scotland and then just transfer the business up. You possibly wouldn't even need to relocate.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#143

Post by ceejayoz »

df3 wrote: post #137
wjoe wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>My only concern for Scotland is that they wouldn't be able to gain (re-gain?) EU membership then would be left out on their own for many years. So I definitely think the Scottish leadership needs to better plan out EU entry relative to the last referendum. Previously they said that if the UK left the EU, and Scotland left the UK, they could take on the UK's EU membership. This seems to be what they're aiming for wit…

Couldn't a speedy entry process be negotiated? My guess though is that the EU won't be keen on the UK splitting up and thus won't encourage it by providing Scotland a quick ascension. This is also a wonderful bargaining chip for the EU to play against Theresa May in negotiating the terms of the UK's exit.

> This is also a wonderful bargaining chip for the EU to play against Theresa May in negotiating the terms of the UK's exit.

Yup. "You lot can leave, but we'll take Scotland. Your choice."

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#144

Post by legulere »

neverminder wrote: post #130

I see this as a lose-lose scenario. If Scotland votes to split - it is effectively the end of UK as we've come to know it for a very long time. Fracturing is almost always a bad idea and bigger countries almost always do better than the smaller ones. If they vote to remain that will be bad as well, because it will embolden the politicians (tories in this specific case) that they can get away with anything (breaking u…

The lose scenario of a split already happened with the Brexit. Now it is time to save as much as possible. Scotland wants to stay in the EU and has interests diverging from England and Wales. Why should Scotland stay with them to make them stronger?

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#145

Post by jpetso »

john61 wrote: post #93
edblarney wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people voted, not Cameron. One could argue that the root political problem is the EU itself. Nationalist movements are on the rise across Europe: The Dutch are about to give their top choice a pretty hard core 'anti Muslim' guy. The French will have a runoff between Le Pen and probably Macron. The Sweden Democrats are polling at 22%. True Finns have incredible influence. Austrian nationalists lost the presidency…

* Austrian nationalists lost the presidency by a tiny margin. * 46.21 % to 53.79 % is NOT a tiny margin.

Those are the numbers for the second attempt, where the first attempt was 50.3% vs. 49.7%, won only after counting mail votes, and that first result got annulled because of challenged vote counts.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#146

Post by sambeau »

Someone1234 wrote: post #100

Disclaimer: I'm English. One can hardly blame them. I was a unionist during the first referendum simply because I thought we were stronger together and felt that the Scottish made the UK as a whole more liberal (which, to be clear, is a GOOD thing). But after Brexit one cannot blame or criticise them for wanting to leave. I want to leave too! If their choice is being part of a fairly progressive EU or a conservative/…

Disclaimer: I'm a child of English parents who was born in Wales but grew up in Scotland. I have Scottish and English children, in-laws and cousins. I have a family home in Scotland but I currently live in England. My children live in England and Scotland. Some of us live in Italy.

What a fucking mess of a total fucking disaster. None of this needed to happen and it's a total nightmare for me and my family.

If this goes through the UK is gone totally and both countries could sink.

I have no idea whether I'd get Scottish Nationality without moving there. Similarly, I assume the same goes for my children.

While the future back in the EU looks like it could be good (eventually) for Scotland there is no guarantee that Scotland will match the criteria in the short term and there may be no EU in the long term if Marine le Pen gets her way.

Do I move to go with them? Do I stay here and wait until its too late? Presumably if I qualify to be Scottish so does half of England. What happens then?

As for the economics—they are super-scary—worse than the economics of Brexit as Scotland not only proportionally trades more with rUK than UK does with the EU there is the little matter of £9bn subsidy UK gives Scotland plus other costs that Scotland will have to take on that look like being a £15bn a year shortfall. Imagine what devastation those kind of cuts will wreak on a small country of 5-6m people?

I'm terrified that once the dust settles and Scotland is free of the UK and having to slash services to meet EU entry requirements the whole mood of jolly, liberal, civic nationalism could come crashing down to normal nasty nationalism and people like me and my family who are reasonably well-off with english-sounding accents could soon see bricks crashing through the windows. Similarly, once the IMF and European banks start to dictate spending policy, European immigrants my be less welcome there than they are now. These are fears not predictions but I think they are plausible scenarios—Hungary seems a case in point here.

On the upside, weirdly, we may see a united Ireland come out of this fiasco.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#147

Post by JamesMcMinn »

Someone1234 wrote: post #105
krona wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules within the EU, the economic case for independence has dwindled, to put it mildly. Politically, the case for independence is on the downside; both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have higher net satisfaction rates than Sturgeon in Scotland, and the likelihood of a g…

> both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson higher net satisfaction rates higher than Sturgeon In Scotland? I'm extremely skeptical.

There are almost continual attacks on Sturgeon from Unionists in Scotland (and from England) - read any of the comment sections on the BBC (it doesn't even have to be about Scotland...) and you'll see a lot of hate for her - everything from claims that she's making a power grab for herself, to calling her one of the krankies. It's a sad state of affairs. Having said that, I think most people would agree she's one of the few British politicians delivering clear leadership at the moment, and for whatever reason, people don't seem to like that coming from her.

I've not heard much, if anything positive about May, but Davidson is generally highly regarded, even if very few actually vote for the Tories in Scotland.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#148

Post by cmdkeen »

matthewmacleod wrote: post #138
krona wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Furthermore, given the 99% fall in oil revenue since the previous referendum, the Union dividend (£9bn / year) and a deficit of 10% GDP, and state aid rules within the EU, the economic case for independence has dwindled, to put it mildly. Politically, the case for independence is on the downside; both Theresa May and Ruth Davidson have higher net satisfaction rates than Sturgeon in Scotland, and the likelihood of a g…

Current thought within the SNP is moving towards building an economic case for independence which is not dependent on North Sea oil revenue. That reliance was seen as a weakness in the previous campaign, and there is awareness of that within the party.

Given that the cybernats have taken to denying GERS, despite those being the figures the last White Paper was based on - and the Common Weal proposed Scotland not having to pay pensions to balance the books, I wouldn't get your hopes up.

The clue is the quiet dropping of demands for Full Fiscal Autonomy over the past few years. There isn't close enough savings to made from things like Trident to enable even a credible deficit to be run. The level of spending cuts / tax rises required will be of the level that only an IMF intervention normally brings - far, far beyond anything Osborne did over many years.

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#149

Post by sambeau »

untog wrote: post #141
vidarh wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I want to leave too! There was a brief desire to start an independence movement for London... It might very well happen (starting a group, not independence itself - if that ever happens it'll be decades) if Brexit gets too nasty and Scotland leaves and causes rest-UK to be even more hostile to our concerns.

London independence would surely only come with the complete collapse of the UK. Or it becoming an EU-like organisation. And that's not entirely impossible - there are enough regional independence movements that it's possible to imagine it. Much more likely, though, is that everyone argues about it for decades and nothing happens.

Total collapse of the UK is looking quite possible.

- Scotland is likely to go (despite what the polls say right now)

- Northern Ireland is quite likely to join Ireland

- God knows what Wales is going to do

Re: Scotland to seek second independence referendum

#150

Post by sambeau »

falsedan wrote: post #107
jankotek wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Scotland is fairly small country, starting their own currency does not make much sense. Monte Negro is using euro, and is not even part of EU yet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montenegro_and_the_euro

Scotland already has three banks issuing their own bank notes (backed by GBP on deposit in their vaults). Independence wouldn't change that, except that the names on the notes would have to be changed from Pounds Stirling.

Small correction: the money is backed by GBP in Bank of England vaults (sent from Scotland). That would have to be transferred north if Scotland decides to create a National Bank.
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