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Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

sciencemag.org

21–30 of 371 posts

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#21

There's really nothing surprising about this conclusion. Before Covid came along and the focus inexplicably shifted to antibodies-only, it was well understood that infection with a pathogen was always likely to result in better immunity than vaccination.

The drawback of an infection on weak/strong immune systems can be death.

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#22
post #12

>the risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19 was 27 times higher among the vaccinated, and the risk of hospitalization eight times higher This sounds convincing, but then in the next graf: >For instance, the higher hospitalization rate in the 32,000-person analysis was based on just eight hospitalizations in a vaccinated group and one in a previously infected group. And the 13-fold increased risk of infection in the…

To develop natural immunity, you would need to get infected with the virus, no? That's considerably more risky than getting the vaccine. If you do get infected with the virus after vaccination, wouldn't you also develop natural immunity?

I think the worry with natural infection is if the timing is such to provide durable immunity. But it’s not like the vaccines have had 5 years of trials to determine the best wait between the 2 and 3 doses so kind of a moot point.

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#23
post #13

I can only consider this a positive for those who are vaccine hesitant, as they will probably be getting it, but I can't see how, considering the realistic dangers of a vaccine, a rational individual wouldn't want both forms of protection even if they were previously infected.

I think people in high risk groups should get it, i.e., the elderly and people with weak immune systems or other health issues. Those who are strong health wise ok, they stand a good chance. That said, I am totally against this blanket insistence on passports. There may be some situations which warrant vaccinations where the subject has no acquired immunity, health workers, etc. But being denied access to govt servic…

> But being denied access to govt services because you lack the papers is not a good thing.

What gov services are people being denied? legit question - I hear this, but unsure what is being referred to.

How about "vaccine proof or wear a mask" to get/access govt services/buildings/etc?

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#24
post #13

I can only consider this a positive for those who are vaccine hesitant, as they will probably be getting it, but I can't see how, considering the realistic dangers of a vaccine, a rational individual wouldn't want both forms of protection even if they were previously infected.

I think people in high risk groups should get it, i.e., the elderly and people with weak immune systems or other health issues. Those who are strong health wise ok, they stand a good chance. That said, I am totally against this blanket insistence on passports. There may be some situations which warrant vaccinations where the subject has no acquired immunity, health workers, etc. But being denied access to govt servic…

At least places like Isreal issue you a green pass for naturally acquired immunity. In the US, people with natural antibodies who are refusing the vaccine are being fired. Basically measuring output rather than outcomes (for all you PMs out there).

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#25
post #4

One can observe how this topic has become political, and is no longer scientific. Our focus and concerns are now all about existing and forthcoming restrictions and mandates for vaccinations and masks -- so much that information like this is no longer even interesting to most people. Not only uninteresting, but vulnerable to censors.

For those who haven't observed this, what are your observations? Does this apply to the article we are discussing, too, or is it more of a general concern about mandates?

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#26

But don’t you risk long hauler symptoms or worse? Meaning, it’s an interesting datapoint but not a viable strategy.

Long haul Covid is generally associated with severe cases. The question then becomes, how much does getting the vaccine reduce a recovered individual's probability of having a severe case? Given that it's pretty rare for reinfections to be serious, and the vaccine does not prevent infection or even serious breakthrough cases, the answer would seem to be "not much."

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#28
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying 32,000 people isn't a large enough study to be meaningful?

For low-prevalence events the number of events that happened is just as important for statistical power as the big 32,000. Especially when doing relative risk, the confidence interval on that "27 times" could be extremely large.

True, but we aren't comparing a 1 to 0 or 1 to 2. Its 238 to 19. sqrt(238)=+/-15 sqrt(19)=+/-4 (if the numbers are to be believed) . 238/19=12.5 (238-15)/(19+4)=9.7 so it becomes 20% less on the lower end of the fluctuation which is only nominal.

Re: Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine

#29

>the risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19 was 27 times higher among the vaccinated, and the risk of hospitalization eight times higher This sounds convincing, but then in the next graf: >For instance, the higher hospitalization rate in the 32,000-person analysis was based on just eight hospitalizations in a vaccinated group and one in a previously infected group. And the 13-fold increased risk of infection in the…

The bigger problem is that the risk of hospitalization post-vaccine appears to be lower than the risk of death pre-vaccine. If seven of those eight hospitalized post-vaccine would have died when naively infected, then the difference disappears. Seven out of 32000 is 0.02%, while the risk of death from COVID-19 is 0.4%.

And if you remove hospitalization as an endpoint, you're basically dependent on self-reports. That's not to say I don't believe the conclusions -- they should survive this critique -- but there is reason to expect a little inflation of the ORs.

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