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agreed but ASML has been chronically undervalued forever.
Have you priced in the extremely limited freedom to operate they have? There is an extreme systemic risk to being a monopoly in a strategic position. It's an extreme beneficial position to be in, until it isn't.
Right now it seems like DeepSeek should splurge on some more GPUs from NVidia because all my requests are timing out.
Buy the dip
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What has changed is the perception that people like OpenAI/MSFT would have an edge on the competition because of their huge datacenters full of NVDA hardware. That is no longer true. People now believe that you can build very capable AI applications for far less money. So the perception is that the big guys no longer have an edge. Tesla had already proven that to be wrong. Tesla's Hardware 3 is a 6 year old design, a…
I mean, I think they still do have an edge - ChatGPT is a great app and has strong consumer recognition already, very hard to displace.. and MSFT has a major installed base of enterprise customers who cannot readily switch cloud / productivity suite providers. So I guess they still have an edge it’s just nore of a traditional edge.
Well this is very bad for the private AI companies but Big Tech will be fine, especially Meta and Apple. Everyone else who over-leveraged into the private AI companies (Anthropic, OpenAI) are going to have their valuations under scrutiny.
I will never forget HN's not-made-in-the-US bias https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42514633
I think part of the problem was many/most previous models coming out of China were trained on eval data to cheat in the rankings. Quite an uphill battle for Deepseek.
Nvidia -13% in Frankfurt stock market just now. Valuations of private unicorns like OpenAi and Anthropic must be in free fall. DeepSeek spends $6 million in old H800 hardware to develop open source model that overtakes ChatGPT. AI gets better, but profit margins sink with strong competition. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek overtakes ChatGPT on Apple App Store https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42839656 Edit: Nvidia now…
Shouldn't this news be bullish long-term for them?
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It's a very strange result. I believe that NVIDIA is overvalued, but if DeepSeek really is as great as has been said, then it'll be even greater when scaled up to OpenAI sizes, and when you get more out you have more reason to pay, so this should if it pans out lead to more demand for GPUs-- basically Jevon's paradox.
The limit is high quality data, not compute.
If, as some companies claim, these models truly possess emergent reasoning, their ability to handle imperfect data should serve as a proof of that capability.
Could NVIDIA be in hot water if it's proven they sold restricted hardware to Chinese companies?