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Rivian is opening its charging network to other EVs

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Re: Rivian is opening its charging network to other EVs

#191

Post by rootusrootus »

iknowstuff wrote: post #164
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd drop Tesla from that argument. No, not that the SC network is bad. Their CEO alienated 50% of their customer base with politics. This is going to be one of the most interesting case studies in brand management and advertising history. But you are probably correct. I think making the infrastructure act funding contingent on reliability metrics is pretty key. You know, if the money doesn't get yanked by the adminis…

50% is grossly exaggerated and kind of shows you’re in a bubble. Tesla sells in China, the world’s largest car market and by far the largest EV market, and Europe, and Australia, and Japan etc. even half of americans dont give a fuck despite some democrats claiming that. Most people dont give a fuck about the ceo’s politics except maybe in the bay area.

Agreed. Tesla fans are so enamored with Elon that there isn’t really going to be anything that changes their mind. The vast majority of people I’ve talked to who said they won’t buy a Tesla because of him are not EV owners at all. Just democrats.

Re: Rivian is opening its charging network to other EVs

#192

Post by rootusrootus »

elif wrote: post #160
NotSammyHagar wrote: post #32

Their strategy was to build them where there weren't other dcfc chargers, opening up new areas especially around outdoors places. Their chargers are much better maintained in general than the infamous Electrify America (they really struggle to fix EA chargers when they have problems, and they have problems) - there's a long story behind this. Rivian started before the plan to use superchargers was even envisioned, so…

Just came to say that Electrify America in late 2024 is NOT the Electrify America of 2023. Legitimately you are looking at >90% odds that all stalls will be working at full power. Idk how they got it together but knock on wood.

IIRC they changed hardware providers and the new one makes way more reliable gear.

Re: Rivian is opening its charging network to other EVs

#194

Post by Spooky23 »

m463 wrote: post #104
NotSammyHagar wrote: post #32

Their strategy was to build them where there weren't other dcfc chargers, opening up new areas especially around outdoors places. Their chargers are much better maintained in general than the infamous Electrify America (they really struggle to fix EA chargers when they have problems, and they have problems) - there's a long story behind this. Rivian started before the plan to use superchargers was even envisioned, so…

I've come to notice that there is no incentive for 3rd party ev-chargers to be dependable. Telsa and rivian have a vested interest in keeping the chargers working. Their sales depend on the chargers working. Even a little bad press is a multiplier against sales. They also have significant engineering effort throughout the charging ecosystem, from the batteries, on-board infrastructure, standards, mapping, strategic c…

You’re right!

Pay phones used to actually make money and get maintained by the phone company! A lot of money. And a lot of regulation. Outside of the hood, they started reducing the maintenance expenses in the mid 90s when receiving calls was pretty much banned.

Chargers are worse than ATMs, they are yet another real estate tax scheme. The actual function of charging is often not a serious consideration.

Re: Rivian is opening its charging network to other EVs

#195

Post by vel0city »

cyberax wrote: post #190
vel0city wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, if the manufacturer does it right, it could theoretically do the sync once with your car and have it authenticate with a lot of different networks that participate in that same partnership. Otherwise, it'll just be a one-time setup the first time you charge. For example, Ford has this "Blue Oval" network concept, so any charger network that is a part of that would trust that without necessarily needing me to as…

Oh, for sure. There's a lot of possible workflows. E.g. a car can present the provider's login screen on the dashboard. > Its way easier if I want to choose a different payment method for a particular charge, and honestly it is not that much additional work to plug in, tap a credit card or phone, and then it starts charging. Its adding like 10-30 seconds to a 10min+ transaction. Credit card readers are a PITA, and th…

> Credit card readers are a PITA, and they need connectivity.

EVV transactions can be done offline. It depends on the issuer if it's allowed.

Re: Rivian is opening its charging network to other EVs

#196

Post by Animats »

iknowstuff wrote: post #164
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd drop Tesla from that argument. No, not that the SC network is bad. Their CEO alienated 50% of their customer base with politics. This is going to be one of the most interesting case studies in brand management and advertising history. But you are probably correct. I think making the infrastructure act funding contingent on reliability metrics is pretty key. You know, if the money doesn't get yanked by the adminis…

50% is grossly exaggerated and kind of shows you’re in a bubble. Tesla sells in China, the world’s largest car market and by far the largest EV market, and Europe, and Australia, and Japan etc. even half of americans dont give a fuck despite some democrats claiming that. Most people dont give a fuck about the ceo’s politics except maybe in the bay area.

Tesla's sales in China are shrinking, but for ordinary car sales reasons - the competition has cheaper cars.[1]

The disaster in US automotive is that the manufacturers thought they could increase prices, and discovered that, instead, unsold cars are piling up. Tesla's oversupply can be seen from space.[2] Stellantis overdid price increases so much that the CEO was canned.

The US currently has 3 million unsold new cars.[3] One wonders how many will still start.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/teslas-china-sales-fall-a...

[2] https://jalopnik.com/so-many-unsold-teslas-are-piling-up-tha...

[3] https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo

Re: Rivian is opening its charging network to other EVs

#197

Post by HdS84 »

peutetre wrote: post #132
m463 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've come to notice that there is no incentive for 3rd party ev-chargers to be dependable. Telsa and rivian have a vested interest in keeping the chargers working. Their sales depend on the chargers working. Even a little bad press is a multiplier against sales. They also have significant engineering effort throughout the charging ecosystem, from the batteries, on-board infrastructure, standards, mapping, strategic c…

The main problem has been lack of standardization. No one wants to invest in infrastructure when there's no common standard to build to. North America is a long way behind Europe in EV charging infrastructure: https://evboosters.com/ev-charging-news/europe-surpasses-900... And both are behind China: https://evboosters.com/ev-charging-news/the-state-of-public-... Europe and China have charging standards that everyone…

Where Europe dropped the ball is not forcing gas station like behaviour onto the chargers. Now we have a bazillion different charging cards and prices differ wildly depending on the Tarif.

Re: Rivian is opening its charging network to other EVs

#198

Post by ggreer »

peutetre wrote: post #166
ggreer wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Longer cables have significant disadvantages. They cost more. They're less efficient, meaning they charge slower and/or require more cooling. They contain more metal, making them more appealing to thieves. They get tangled and damaged more easily. That's why Tesla made their cables so short and standardized on a charging port location. I'm sure future charging stations will have some long cables for vehicles with odd…

> I don't know if every charger at a station will have a long cable. Every charger will have longer cables. Longer cables have been deployed on chargers from many manufacturers for years. It's not novel. Tesla is generally behind the curve with charger development. Kempower and Alpitronic make the best chargers.

Both of those companies have much higher costs per charger than Tesla. Kempower doesn't make their prices public, but the cheapest I could find was $50,000 for a 1 port 50kW charger. A dual port 200kW charger was almost $200,000. Alptronic's chargers are $50,000 for a 1 port 75kW charger and $90,000 for a 2 port charger with 300kW total output. Those numbers are just for the hardware. That doesn't include costs for installation, land, or grid connection. My best estimate of Tesla costs is around $41,000 per plug, and that includes all of those extra expenses.[1]

Sadly, the graveyard of failed companies is full of ones that made amazing products. Kempower's revenue has been going down over the past year, and they've burned through half of their cash reserves in the past few quarters. They've decreased headcount to reduce costs. I hope they pull out of this dive, as more competition is great for consumers. But it really is the case that fancier chargers are significantly more expensive. So much so that it's hard to make them profitable.

1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42344230

Re: Rivian is opening its charging network to other EVs

#199

Post by AtlasBarfed »

iknowstuff wrote: post #164
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd drop Tesla from that argument. No, not that the SC network is bad. Their CEO alienated 50% of their customer base with politics. This is going to be one of the most interesting case studies in brand management and advertising history. But you are probably correct. I think making the infrastructure act funding contingent on reliability metrics is pretty key. You know, if the money doesn't get yanked by the adminis…

50% is grossly exaggerated and kind of shows you’re in a bubble. Tesla sells in China, the world’s largest car market and by far the largest EV market, and Europe, and Australia, and Japan etc. even half of americans dont give a fuck despite some democrats claiming that. Most people dont give a fuck about the ceo’s politics except maybe in the bay area.

Such ANGER.

The Internet says 50% of US buyers are identified democrats, YMMV for internet stats. That number doesn't seem stupid -- EVs are progressive, environmentalist, anti-establishment.

Tesla's stock is a huge bubble. It's worth the next 10 car companies combined! Yes there's a ton of AI speculation in there, but fundamentally the company's stock is about geometric growth in sales.

The most important customer to a car company is their current ones, since those have a very high chance of being loyal to the brand when they buy again.

Tesla is a company that does almost no advertising. Maybe that's because the press gives them enough hype, but I suspect there is a huge degree of passionate advocacy. I should know, I ... was ... a strong advocate for Tesla. I still am for EVs, but they were one and the same with Tesla for 20 years.

A subtle thing happened with the Tesla owners I know. They went from advocating for their car, to rationalizing it, within the span of six months. I don't think it is a stretch to say that Tesla owners were passionate advocates for their vehicles. All progressive, environmentalist people I know are now hell-nos.

Point is, Tesla is stock bubble. Their sales are already down this year, and I'm picking up the popcorn to see what happens in Q3/Q4. The trade war will probably make Tesla a noncompetitive product in China. So US sales are going to get MORE important, not less.

People are actively selling their Teslas. Sure, it's on the used market, what does that matter? I don't have stats, but how many sales of new Teslas will a robust used market (which also has Hertz dumping cars onto the market) cannibalize? I'd say each used Tesla is half of a new one.

Point is, I don't see Tesla as a stock that can rationalize bad sales. They don't have a brand-spanking new car for a new mass market: the Cybertruck is explicitly a miss from the pickup truck market. The Semi still can't seem to scale production. The robotaxi is, face it, two years away and a fundamental leap in AI from working.

Trump is going to be on television reminding every democrat who helped him vocally, publicly, monetarily, possibly illegally get him in office, and will join an agency that will target progressive government systematically and with high visibility.

All it takes is, what, 1/3 of the 50% democrats of their potential customer base to say "hell no" and that's ... 16% drop in sales. Ever seen a company lose 16% of sales?

Good luck with that stock, folks.

Re: Rivian is opening its charging network to other EVs

#200

Post by AtlasBarfed »

rootusrootus wrote: post #191
iknowstuff wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

50% is grossly exaggerated and kind of shows you’re in a bubble. Tesla sells in China, the world’s largest car market and by far the largest EV market, and Europe, and Australia, and Japan etc. even half of americans dont give a fuck despite some democrats claiming that. Most people dont give a fuck about the ceo’s politics except maybe in the bay area.

Agreed. Tesla fans are so enamored with Elon that there isn’t really going to be anything that changes their mind. The vast majority of people I’ve talked to who said they won’t buy a Tesla because of him are not EV owners at all. Just democrats.

Once you get past the passionate technologist crowd, and there have been signs the initial buyer pool for Tesla was already stagnating a bit in 2023, who are the next natural candidates for buyers?

The mass market is 1/3 right wing, 1/3 left wing, 1/3 centrist roughly.

The 1/3 right wing are the pickup truck buyers. Like a rock ... Strong as I can be.

The 1/3 left wing is now pretty much a no.

The 1/3 centrist is probably price driven. Tesla is still too expensive for them, and if they want a Tesla, I would say they are buying a used one.

Tesla has two cars: a sedan, a crossover, in small and medium. They don't have real pickups, work trucks, station wagons, sports cars, roadsters, delivery vans, real SUVs, city cars/kei cars, or minivans. The cybertruck is a sideshow, the robotaxi is years away given Tesla's roadmap with mundane manufacturing scaling, to say nothing of the AI advance it requires and the alien nature of it to the larger buying public.

Tesla failed to utilize its name brand in ebikes, motorcycles, scooters, or even other battery/motor devices like hand tools, lawn tools, snowblowers, riding mowers. Obviously no heavy equipment aside from some pilot Semis. No RVs.

The Solar business is meh. The grid business likely will be outcompeted by sodium ion/lfp/other schemes. Home storage is slow uptake, and again they'll probably be outcompeted in price.

Tesla has no more tech advantage. Their EV drivetrain may be a percent or two more efficient, but likely not enough to matter. NMC cylindrical cells are about to be economically noncompetitive with 150 wh/kg sodium ion and 200-225 wh/kg LFP, and denser stuff is on the 3 year roadmap. The battery day 4680 tech is basically undelivered or won't scale.

I just don't see the growth path for this company anymore barring miraculous AI combined with miraculous execution combined with miraculous domestic battery supply. About the only thing I can see floating the company it terms of real sales figures would be the Semi, but it sure looks like a soft launch to me that is still a year away, and something that will need either sulfur chemistries, solid state, or dirt cheap high density LFP/Sodium Ion to be economically viable.

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