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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

191–200 of 821 posts

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#191
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID, even states with "no restrictions" were able to knock it out because enough people took enough measures to protect themselves from airborne/surface communicable disease in general. In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly by having enough of the population mask up, wash/sanitize their hands, etc.

But the flu has always been here, even when our country was significantly less populated, when we were significantly more rural, and when people were significantly less connected in many ways. Like, how did we get flu pandemics in the 1700s? Weren't we less connected back then, even after you account for all the social distancing that was done this year?

> Like, how did we get flu pandemics in the 1700s?

Germ theory of disease didn't exist back then.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#192

I keep wondering how Lice will be able to hang around much after last year's social distancing, especially among children.

Are... are those still a thing in the first world?

There are sporadic outbreaks of head lice in my children’s preschool. It doesn’t seems to have change much since I was in that age myself soon fifty years ago.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#193
post #154
post #55

An alternative explanation is that of "viral interference"[1,2], i.e., the most transmissible virus boosting up viral immunity in the population, and precluding transmission of the less transmissible/fit virus [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5489283/ [2]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5...

Would this only show up in the covid infected population?

Not necessarily. COVID might be so transmissible that the entire world has been exposed to it enough to trigger an immune response but only establishes itself and becomes an infection in those who get a large enough viral load over a short enough time period.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not OP but no, I work from home and only see the people I live with since this started. Knowing if its covid vs the flu wouldn't really matter much to me and either way my behavior would be the same. Frankly it would be worse for public health if I left the house while sick to satisfy my curiosity. I can imagine that many others in my situation would come to a similar conclusion.

Exactly. The only result from covid testing it delaying your own civil liberties. The vast vast majority of people wont ever get covid and a tiny remainder will have symptoms, an even smaller number will need to go to bed, a smaller number will need to go to hospital and people who were going to die this year may die from it. Dont take my word for it, this is the opinion of the UKs chief medical officer: https://www.…

>But that doesn’t mean you can get away from the fact that if we did not do anything, if we let this virus to run, we would be back in a very serious situation that would threaten many lives and threaten the NHS.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#195
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's strange to call this an "alternative explanation", since it's the one that expert infectious disease researchers, nearly without exception, are pointing to. The (let's face it, silly) notion that masks and distancing suppressed all respiratory pathogens except one is a theory with very little traction, and which will almost certainly not stand up to serious scrutiny.

Blasphemy! Anyone paying attention can see that every person with the flu was labeled as having “Covid” but everyone who “follows the science” will perform all kinds of mental gymnastics to avoid seeing what is obvious.

> avoid seeing what is obvious.

Can you explain what is obvious? You seem to allude to something, but I'm not sure what that is.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know where you live but in Canada we have programs like FluWatchers which send sample groups a survey every week asking about flu-like symptoms, flu vaccinations (and COVID now) and such every flu season. They can also request a voluntary sample from you to help track these things. So the data is there :-)

In the province I'm familiar with the Provincial government has canceled all testing for the common Flu unless your in the hospital. This is being misconstrued as the flu disappearing in my province which is obviously true because it's not being test for. It's not being tested for because they are prioritizing COVID-19 testing, unless your hospitalized.

Which province was this? Here in Alberta we did twice as many tests as the year before.

https://www.660citynews.com/2021/04/13/zero-cases-of-seasona...

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID, even states with "no restrictions" were able to knock it out because enough people took enough measures to protect themselves from airborne/surface communicable disease in general. In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly by having enough of the population mask up, wash/sanitize their hands, etc.

I'm really hoping that the culture change in the US is to wear masks in public when feeling ill from a respiratory infection.

Not wearing masks is a hill many people have chosen to literally die on, so while I hope that there is a culture change, I expect that anyone wearing masks after the pandemic is over will be demonized.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#198
post #55

An alternative explanation is that of "viral interference"[1,2], i.e., the most transmissible virus boosting up viral immunity in the population, and precluding transmission of the less transmissible/fit virus [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5489283/ [2]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5...

The first, "alternative explanation" the statistician in me wants to mention is perhaps the way influenza data is gathered has changed.

"Only people who get tested for influenzalike illnesses—typically about 5 percent of individuals who fall ill—are tallied."

If there were a change in the way these tests were administered, for example a blaring medical bias toward another disease, that would present a significant sampling problem. That same statistician also wanted me to mention the simplest and most boring answers are usually closest to the truth.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#199

If I caught the flu, how would the government/scientists studying this stuff even know I got it? If you're anything like me you probably just take some time off and get over the illness without ever seeing a doctor or taking a flu-test. How do they measure such things? I suspect they use some elaborate statistical model to try and generalize the results to the whole population.

There is literally an entire industrial complex setup to fight the flu on an annual basis, including massive testing & tracking. This is how we have data on annual flu infections. If anything, this year would have been an excellent year to find more flu infections as many people who got sick didn't simply stay home and get over the illness, they went & got tested.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#200
post #55

An alternative explanation is that of "viral interference"[1,2], i.e., the most transmissible virus boosting up viral immunity in the population, and precluding transmission of the less transmissible/fit virus [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5489283/ [2]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5...

The lack of Flu infections in the population that did not contract COVID cannot be explained by viral interference. Viral interference would only explain a decreased influenza infection rate among those exposed to COVID.

Combination between efforts to avoid COVID and viral interference of those who were exposed would drastically reduce the ability to spread. Could it perhaps have reduced it enough to have stopped a flu season from developing?
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