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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#181

Post by peder »

brandon272 wrote: post #6
User23 wrote: post #4

Why did the flu also disappear in the states that had effectively no covid restrictions? This is a serious question and not an attempt at rhetoric. I really am curious. Was flu never a problem in Florida? Was voluntary compliance so widespread that heavy handed government policy had no marginal anti-flu effect? Something else?

The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID, even states with "no restrictions" were able to knock it out because enough people took enough measures to protect themselves from airborne/surface communicable disease in general. In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly by having enough of the population mask up, wash/sanitize their hands, etc.

But the flu has always been here, even when our country was significantly less populated, when we were significantly more rural, and when people were significantly less connected in many ways. Like, how did we get flu pandemics in the 1700s? Weren't we less connected back then, even after you account for all the social distancing that was done this year?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#182

Post by [deleted] »

fidesomnes wrote: post #156
yosito wrote: post #3

While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing and staying home when sick, which were all far more effective against the flu than against SARS-CoV-2, I wonder how much this was affected by some of the deep cleans that cities were doing at the beginning of the pandemic where they basically sprayed entire cities with disinfectant trucks. Does anyone with more expertise have any thoughts about that?

> While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing I give it 5 years from now when it is no longer politically intolerable that studies will come out and admit that masks and social distancing did absolutely nothing to slow or prevent infection.

[deleted]

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#183

Post by Retric »

PeterisP wrote: post #37
yosito wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You realize those « deep cleans » are mostly comms operations for governments to look like they are doing stuff, right? Yes, but it must have had some effect on fomite transmission of some viruses, right?

AFAIK fomite transmission on public streets and other places sprayed by such "deep cleans" isn't a common spread vector for any widespread disease, so eliminating it can't make a meaningful difference.

Even fairly small changes can be significant with exponential feedback loops. That’s not to say they actually had any impact, just that you can’t always tell what was important.

For example it’s possible but unlikely that some other pandemic was accidentally prevented.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#184

Post by rorykoehler »

Mediterraneo10 wrote: post #80
fecak wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When Covid goes away, we can assume masking, distancing, and staying home will also go away. In that case, all communicable diseases are likely to increase, from the common cold to STDs.

This is why a tiny fringe of epidemologists has been calling for social distancing to continue for the next several years at least, even after COVID, because they see this as a chance to wipe out other common illnesses. If a person hyperspecializes in a field like epidemology, there is the risk of the person expecting all government policy to revolve around their specific concerns. Sometimes in interviews those epide…

No chance. I see enough people breaking social distancing rules to ensure that goal is a pipe dream.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#185

Post by 16bytes »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #78

If I caught the flu, how would the government/scientists studying this stuff even know I got it? If you're anything like me you probably just take some time off and get over the illness without ever seeing a doctor or taking a flu-test. How do they measure such things? I suspect they use some elaborate statistical model to try and generalize the results to the whole population.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

> How do they measure such things?

By have a sophisticated surveillance network and testing people. To quote from the above page, there have been 931,726 specimens collected since 9/2020, and only 0.2% have been positive.

Compare that number to the previous season (13.0%):

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/Week0...

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#186

Post by BitwiseFool »

lreeves wrote: post #139
BitwiseFool wrote: post #78

If I caught the flu, how would the government/scientists studying this stuff even know I got it? If you're anything like me you probably just take some time off and get over the illness without ever seeing a doctor or taking a flu-test. How do they measure such things? I suspect they use some elaborate statistical model to try and generalize the results to the whole population.

I don't know where you live but in Canada we have programs like FluWatchers which send sample groups a survey every week asking about flu-like symptoms, flu vaccinations (and COVID now) and such every flu season. They can also request a voluntary sample from you to help track these things. So the data is there :-)

Interesting, I've never (knowingly) been a part of an epidemiological survey like that.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#187

Post by thedmstdmstdmst »

lreeves wrote: post #139
BitwiseFool wrote: post #78

If I caught the flu, how would the government/scientists studying this stuff even know I got it? If you're anything like me you probably just take some time off and get over the illness without ever seeing a doctor or taking a flu-test. How do they measure such things? I suspect they use some elaborate statistical model to try and generalize the results to the whole population.

I don't know where you live but in Canada we have programs like FluWatchers which send sample groups a survey every week asking about flu-like symptoms, flu vaccinations (and COVID now) and such every flu season. They can also request a voluntary sample from you to help track these things. So the data is there :-)

In the province I'm familiar with the Provincial government has canceled all testing for the common Flu unless your in the hospital. This is being misconstrued as the flu disappearing in my province which is obviously true because it's not being test for.

It's not being tested for because they are prioritizing COVID-19 testing, unless your hospitalized.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#188

Post by [deleted] »

cortesoft wrote: post #140
ggggtez wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>worldwide Because people outside the US actually see their doctors when they get sick? Or people who are otherwise older/younger/immunocompromised etc. Don't just assume that everyone is a young healthy person like yourself.

I don't think not going to the doctor for mild illnesses is a strictly US thing.

[deleted]

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#189

Post by heavyset_go »

moftz wrote: post #26
brandon272 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID, even states with "no restrictions" were able to knock it out because enough people took enough measures to protect themselves from airborne/surface communicable disease in general. In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly by having enough of the population mask up, wash/sanitize their hands, etc.

I remember it not being a huge deal to have a bunch of people at work come with flu-like symptoms. "It's just something going around." Work gave out flu shots every year but that isn't 100%. It wasn't even considered much of a faux pas to show up to work feeling a little ill. Now, showing up to work with flu-like symptoms could put you in the hot seat with HR. Having a bunch of people fall ill in the office now resul…

Every fall, winter and spring, I was able to watch as colds and the flu spread around indoors. People would be chastised for staying home with "the sniffles", too.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#190

Post by ineedasername »

paviva wrote: post #55

An alternative explanation is that of "viral interference"[1,2], i.e., the most transmissible virus boosting up viral immunity in the population, and precluding transmission of the less transmissible/fit virus [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5489283/ [2]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5...

The lack of Flu infections in the population that did not contract COVID cannot be explained by viral interference. Viral interference would only explain a decreased influenza infection rate among those exposed to COVID.
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