Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic • Hacker News Board

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#21

Post by Wxc2jjJmST9XWWL » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC

yosito wrote: post #13

al3xandre wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize those « deep cleans » are mostly comms operations for governments to look like they are doing stuff, right? Virus live (mostly) in people, not on sidewalks. One of the most ridiculous example: the Thai government went to the extent of spraying disinfectant in the forest next to the Burmese border, and got pictures published in newspaper to show their great work. Comical! [1] [1] https://twitter.com/thaine…

> You realize those « deep cleans » are mostly comms operations for governments to look like they are doing stuff, right? Yes, but it must have had some effect on fomite transmission of some viruses, right?

The flu is global, yes? How many cities did your "deep cleaning" (I've heard it for the first time)? Out of a total of how many cities? I decline your notion on those grounds alone.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#22

Post by ancientworldnow » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC

georgeplusplus wrote: post #14

yosito wrote: post #3

While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing and staying home when sick, which were all far more effective against the flu than against SARS-CoV-2, I wonder how much this was affected by some of the deep cleans that cities were doing at the beginning of the pandemic where they basically sprayed entire cities with disinfectant trucks. Does anyone with more expertise have any thoughts about that?

Flu - a coronavirus that has been wiped out because of social distance and masking and hygiene controls Covid - a coronavirus that is absolutely rampant because insufficient masking, distancing, and hygiene controls How you rationalize that hypocrisy so easily in your head is beyond me.

Flu is an influenza virus not a coronavirus - it's literally in the name.

Additionally, varying levels of contagiousness and mechanisms of spread absolutely make actions more effective for some diseases and less effective or not effective at all for others. This is not a controversial statement despite your dramatic insistence on ignorance.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#23

Post by smolder » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC

georgeplusplus wrote: post #14

yosito wrote: post #3

While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing and staying home when sick, which were all far more effective against the flu than against SARS-CoV-2, I wonder how much this was affected by some of the deep cleans that cities were doing at the beginning of the pandemic where they basically sprayed entire cities with disinfectant trucks. Does anyone with more expertise have any thoughts about that?

Flu - a coronavirus that has been wiped out because of social distance and masking and hygiene controls Covid - a coronavirus that is absolutely rampant because insufficient masking, distancing, and hygiene controls How you rationalize that hypocrisy so easily in your head is beyond me.

Influenza is not a coronavirus.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#24

Post by petertodd » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:37 PM UTC

brandon272 wrote: post #6

User23 wrote: post #4

Why did the flu also disappear in the states that had effectively no covid restrictions? This is a serious question and not an attempt at rhetoric. I really am curious. Was flu never a problem in Florida? Was voluntary compliance so widespread that heavy handed government policy had no marginal anti-flu effect? Something else?

The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID, even states with "no restrictions" were able to knock it out because enough people took enough measures to protect themselves from airborne/surface communicable disease in general. In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly by having enough of the population mask up, wash/sanitize their hands, etc.

> The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID

But why is it less transmissible? One obvious explanation is because we've lived with it all our lives, and most people already have some level of pre-existing immunity to most flu strains they're exposed to. Both due to natural infections, and vaccines.

> In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly by having enough of the population mask up, wash/sanitize their hands, etc.

If pre-existing immunity is why it's less transmissible, those measures will result in fewer flu infections, and thus lower levels of pre-existing immunity. Which in turn, may make the flu more transmissible, leaving us where we started. Worse, if pre-existing immunity is decreasing the severity of the infections we do get, the net effect may actually be more deaths due to fewer, but more deadly, infections.

Flu vaccines are notoriously ineffective, with a typical year being just 50% effective, and bad years being as little as 19%. They're probably the least effective widely used vaccines by a long shot (eg the MMR vaccine is about 97% effective). So we can't just assume we'd be able to make up the difference with increased vaccination. Flu vaccine coverage is already quite high anyway, 51.8% or so for the entire US population.

edit: fixed %

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1920estimates.ht... https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/measles/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies....

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#25

Post by PEJOE » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:37 PM UTC

georgeplusplus wrote: post #14

yosito wrote: post #3

While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing and staying home when sick, which were all far more effective against the flu than against SARS-CoV-2, I wonder how much this was affected by some of the deep cleans that cities were doing at the beginning of the pandemic where they basically sprayed entire cities with disinfectant trucks. Does anyone with more expertise have any thoughts about that?

Flu - a coronavirus that has been wiped out because of social distance and masking and hygiene controls Covid - a coronavirus that is absolutely rampant because insufficient masking, distancing, and hygiene controls How you rationalize that hypocrisy so easily in your head is beyond me.

Influenza is not a coronavirus

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#26

Post by moftz » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:38 PM UTC

brandon272 wrote: post #6

User23 wrote: post #4

Why did the flu also disappear in the states that had effectively no covid restrictions? This is a serious question and not an attempt at rhetoric. I really am curious. Was flu never a problem in Florida? Was voluntary compliance so widespread that heavy handed government policy had no marginal anti-flu effect? Something else?

The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID, even states with "no restrictions" were able to knock it out because enough people took enough measures to protect themselves from airborne/surface communicable disease in general. In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly by having enough of the population mask up, wash/sanitize their hands, etc.

I remember it not being a huge deal to have a bunch of people at work come with flu-like symptoms. "It's just something going around." Work gave out flu shots every year but that isn't 100%. It wasn't even considered much of a faux pas to show up to work feeling a little ill. Now, showing up to work with flu-like symptoms could put you in the hot seat with HR. Having a bunch of people fall ill in the office now results in it being closed for the day for cleaning. It won't stay this way forever but it's going to be a while until most people go back to being lax on contagious diseases. Imagine companies forcing employees and schools forcing students to mask up during flu season.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#27

Post by ericb » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:38 PM UTC

User23 wrote: post #4

Why did the flu also disappear in the states that had effectively no covid restrictions? This is a serious question and not an attempt at rhetoric. I really am curious. Was flu never a problem in Florida? Was voluntary compliance so widespread that heavy handed government policy had no marginal anti-flu effect? Something else?

I was in Florida two weeks ago--Orlando and Sarasota. I'm a Massachusetts resident. In Florida, I observed around 90+% mask usage in grocery stores. In a random ColdStone creamery, I saw maybe 70%, Five guys was probably 80% except while eating.

In Massachusetts, usage is certainly higher, but maybe in practicality, not enough to make a difference compared to other factors?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#28

Post by deelowe » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:38 PM UTC

georgeplusplus wrote: post #14

yosito wrote: post #3

While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing and staying home when sick, which were all far more effective against the flu than against SARS-CoV-2, I wonder how much this was affected by some of the deep cleans that cities were doing at the beginning of the pandemic where they basically sprayed entire cities with disinfectant trucks. Does anyone with more expertise have any thoughts about that?

Flu - a coronavirus that has been wiped out because of social distance and masking and hygiene controls Covid - a coronavirus that is absolutely rampant because insufficient masking, distancing, and hygiene controls How you rationalize that hypocrisy so easily in your head is beyond me.

...

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#29

Post by nodesocket » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:38 PM UTC

ibraheemdev wrote: post #5

Just speculating here, but maybe because of false positives where flu cases get labeled as Covid? I've heard that PCR tests were not meant to be used for large scale virus detection. EDIT: The PCR test quote was fact checked and deemed to be misleading, but it still sounds like they are not very accurate [0]. [0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN2442...

Absolutely agree that standard flu cases are surely being reported as covid.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#30

Post by CorrectHorseBat » Thu, Apr 29, 2021, 4:39 PM UTC

georgeplusplus wrote: post #14

yosito wrote: post #3

While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing and staying home when sick, which were all far more effective against the flu than against SARS-CoV-2, I wonder how much this was affected by some of the deep cleans that cities were doing at the beginning of the pandemic where they basically sprayed entire cities with disinfectant trucks. Does anyone with more expertise have any thoughts about that?

Flu - a coronavirus that has been wiped out because of social distance and masking and hygiene controls Covid - a coronavirus that is absolutely rampant because insufficient masking, distancing, and hygiene controls How you rationalize that hypocrisy so easily in your head is beyond me.

Flu is not a coronavirus but a completely different one. Different viruses behave differently. How hard is that to rationalize?