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The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

technologyreview.com

191–200 of 356 posts

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#191
post #51

Years ago, a friend of the family said "You're so smart. Everyone thought you would be a millionaire by age thirty. What happened?" I pointed at my kids and said "They happened. And they take all my time." I was a full-time wife and mom. This is not a career known to lead to great wealth. So, for starters, not all interests or career paths have equal potential to lead to wealth. Intelligence in no way guarantees that…

Next time just say: "I am a millionaire, and more. My kids are worth more than I could have imagined"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haec_ornamenta_mea

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#192
I would say there is some lucky with becoming extremely wealthy, but in general there is a pretty easy formula to becoming wealthy if you're smart. Invest a decent portion of your income into index funds and live below your means. On an engineer's salary it isn't hard to become a millionaire by the age of 40 even with modest savings.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For Americans, getting rich should be the top priority. There's not much of a safety net if you fall ill and can't work. You have to use your healthy/productive years to build up wealth so you won't be homeless later.

This is a great point. It's not (necessarily) that Americans are just inherently money-hungry; we just have to be because we live in a system that is really callous and unmerciful compared to other places in the world.

> that is really callous and unmerciful compared to other places in the world

like Europe, which has a level of public spending that many view as unsustainably high?

Edit: plenty of economists are saying this! It's hardly a controversial view

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#194

I chased the dollar and lost my wife and Pomeranian in a divorce :( I was rich, but never realized that love and companionship is worth more in the long term than money. I would give a billion dollars to wake up with my wife in my arms and that little dude licking my face.

^^ Techlead spotted.

You can have both good things in your life again. Dust yourself off, learn what you need to learn and find someone who will uphold her commitments (I'm making some assumptions about your vows)...

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your ability to get back on track is hugely determined by your circumstances. If you're the child of a wealthy white family, you probably have the connections to get a decent job even with some gaps on your resume and a couple of drug convictions. If you're a poor black kid? Forget about it. Recovering from a mental health crisis is vastly easier if you have the financial resources and the family support to avoid hom…

> Wealth and privilege buy you (and your children) a lot of safety nets and a lot of second chances. People without those advantages are often in an incredibly precarious situation, just one tough break or one bad decision away from total ruin. People without those advantages have to build them. That is what smart people do. That is what I (a poor black kid) did with an old used computer that my father left behind af…

Yeah, I think you want to tell different people different things.

You want to tell poor people to take responsibility for their own success, because that's the best way to motivate them.

But you also want to tell those running things that they have a huge impact on poor people's success, and things like better public schools would go a long way. Because if the people running things shrug and say "those poor people are responsible for their own success" then systemic inequalities will persist way longer than they do in places like, say, Finland that have widespread, high quality public education.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#196
post #14

Perhaps it is stupid to want to be rich? Few people are stupid enough to take the chance, so a few rich people are no thread to the mental health of society at large. Whowhat?

I'm being totally serious: The more I learn about riches & fame, the less I want them. I'll be honest: I'm not quite to the point where if someone tried to thrust a million dollars into my hand, I'd say no. (That isn't even necessarily enough to take you out of "middle class" anymore as a one-off payment, honestly.) But I think I'd say no to 10 million and I'm fairly certain I'd say no to 100 million. Or really wish…

On a city tour the guide shared that a local billionaire hired the Navy Seals to break into his home to test the security system. He doesn’t want his family hurt by people who want his money.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#197
post #90

True, but you can't be lucky if you don't roll the dice, and some people roll the dice more than others.

And what guarantees that rolling the dice will always be profitable. Rolling the dice can bring profits or losses.

Nobody is suggesting that it would be.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#198
post #141

The smarter you are the more you understand the risks and choose safer paths. Getting rich involves doing stupid things.. things that others would look at and think would fail but you do it anyways. So getting rich involves stubborness and fearlessness and the ability to detact from reality.

You can get rich without risking anything (well except a little time and effort). It's called VC... If you're good and want to play it safe, you will use the money carefully and wisely and succeed. No need to be fearless or detached from reality.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Health issues are another thing. If I’m remembering your previous posts correctly, you’re quite aware that mental health is absolutely a part of this. It’s a very big part for some people. I’ve never felt that I’ve lack “smart”. What I lack is passion, willpower, and consistency. From where I sit, I expect that I’d be much better off both financially and emotionally if my situation were reversed.

If I’m remembering your previous posts correctly, you’re quite aware that mental health is absolutely a part of this. Yes. I do a poor job of making that clear because I feel so strongly that physical health and mental health cannot be neatly separated. "A sound mind in a sound body." To me, (a lack of) "passion, willpower, and consistency" really sounds like someone with low energy due to a hidden health issue. I wa…

> To me, (a lack of) "passion, willpower, and consistency" really sounds like someone with low energy due to a hidden health issue.

Oh, without question it is. The problem has been identifying and treating it appropriately. I’m seeing help, but it’s slow going. It will pass - I’ve beaten it before and will do so again.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#200
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That comment says "class of games", and you've started writing about "class games" and then "class differences" in your interpretation of the comment. Not saying you did something bad here, but it sounds more like the telephone game than discussing what was written, all because of the omission of the preposition "of."

This is correct. I mean that having a certain level of wealth throws you into a world where everyone wants a piece of you, friendships become very difficult because are they friends or are they just after some money? Probably the latter. It basically takes you out of the normal run of human affairs into a very isolated environment. It solves a lot of problems that, frankly, I can solve well enough now, in return for…

Your view is one that I'm partial to myself, but there are some other factors which you don't mention in your analysis.

One is that if you widen your view to not just being about you and how you cope with or are affected by that wealth, and consider how it might be used to help or influence those around you, the conclusion of whether to accept or seek such wealth might be different.

There was an article on HN recently about Jeff Bezos and his quest to get humans out in to space. Elon Musk has a similar ambition. Their goals, should they achieve them, could significantly change the destiny of humanity, and it would be unachievable for them without their great wealth.

Or look at what Gates has done with his foundation, or Warren Buffet's pledge to give away his billions when he dies (and all the other millionaires and billionaires he's managed to convince to do the same). None of that, which could and already has significantly helped the world would be possible without their wealth.

Or look at the Carnegie endowments, the Nobel prizes, the MacArthur awards, etc.

Very positive results could be achieved through charitable and philanthropic endeavors which would not be possible without the great wealth of their founders, even if the cost of that wealth to themselves and their families might be great.

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