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The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

technologyreview.com

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Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#151
Success in life shouldn't be measured solely by someone's wealth. Not if you value happiness. Beyond a certain point wealth doesn't increase a person's happiness.

It is pathological to even consider sacrificing your happiness and compromising your life to chase higher and higher paying jobs.

Knowing when to settle and how to be content in life with what you have is a form of intelligence rarely praised.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However, 2, 3 and 4 can be reduced to 1. You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life. In the end, everything is just blind luck, but our egos want to feel like they are in control somehow.

> You don't choose your genes or where you are born. Those factors, which are blind luck, determine all of the other lucks for your whole life. if you workout and are in the best shape your genes can provide, you will be more lucky when meeting people and more interesting people will be interested on you. That would be 3, not 1. And if you have a good conversation and go out every day, you will also have more chance…

unless, of course, you skipped that critical networking event because you were at the gym. Unlucky.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#153
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Next time just say: "I am a millionaire, and more. My kids are worth more than I could have imagined"

Right. Once you figure out there are more columns in the life-ledger than cash, decisions change. To the bafflement of folks that haven't figured it out yet.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13221379-what-money-can-...

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#154
> The results are something of an eye-opener. Their simulations accurately reproduce the wealth distribution in the real world... They then repeat the simulation many times to check the robustness of the outcome.

I'm not familiar with the process and rigor that goes into a study like this, but it seems to me that for experiments like this it would be hard to prevent researchers from adjusting parameters until they get the answer they are looking for (which multiple runs doesn't really address).

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#155
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Did the guys who went to work for Google take any additional risk? Yet, they are now millionaires. They probably are smarter though! If they weren't, they wouldn't get in.

Haha. They are all smart. Not everyone chooses to apply for a job at Google.

That's a heck of a bubble then! Usually the choice isn't the bottleneck for mere mortals like the people I went to undergrad with.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#156
post #146

Years ago, a friend of the family said "You're so smart. Everyone thought you would be a millionaire by age thirty. What happened?" I pointed at my kids and said "They happened. And they take all my time." I was a full-time wife and mom. This is not a career known to lead to great wealth. So, for starters, not all interests or career paths have equal potential to lead to wealth. Intelligence in no way guarantees that…

"And I thought you would be dead by now. How have you survived for so long?"

This was an extremely good friend of the family whom I called "tante" (German for aunt) from the age of seven, though she wasn't related to me.

You could more charitably think of it as a compliment and an attempt at awkward social critique of how life works. An attempt to ask someone whose intelligence she admired to try to explain why life doesn't work like she thought it was supposed to.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Divorce, scandal, drug addiction and various other personal issues can all be financially ruinous. Smart people get past their personal issues and back on track stronger. If not, they aren't smart. A little bit above average is not smart, nor be really great at one thing (like computing) but not be able to fix your own lifestyle, money expending, health and eating habits.

Your ability to get back on track is hugely determined by your circumstances. If you're the child of a wealthy white family, you probably have the connections to get a decent job even with some gaps on your resume and a couple of drug convictions. If you're a poor black kid? Forget about it. Recovering from a mental health crisis is vastly easier if you have the financial resources and the family support to avoid hom…

> Wealth and privilege buy you (and your children) a lot of safety nets and a lot of second chances. People without those advantages are often in an incredibly precarious situation, just one tough break or one bad decision away from total ruin.

People without those advantages have to build them. That is what smart people do. That is what I (a poor black kid) did with an old used computer that my father left behind after leaving my mother alone with 3 kids to raise. That is what I tell the young-lings from my poor neighborhood (that I don't live anymore so to not be hold by past circumstances). They get much more motivated by that than by reading that they are going to be stuck there forever because circumstances. Most of them will.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#158

Years ago, a friend of the family said "You're so smart. Everyone thought you would be a millionaire by age thirty. What happened?" I pointed at my kids and said "They happened. And they take all my time." I was a full-time wife and mom. This is not a career known to lead to great wealth. So, for starters, not all interests or career paths have equal potential to lead to wealth. Intelligence in no way guarantees that…

This speaks so well to my thoughts. Thank you for saying it better than I could!

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#159

Years ago, a friend of the family said "You're so smart. Everyone thought you would be a millionaire by age thirty. What happened?" I pointed at my kids and said "They happened. And they take all my time." I was a full-time wife and mom. This is not a career known to lead to great wealth. So, for starters, not all interests or career paths have equal potential to lead to wealth. Intelligence in no way guarantees that…

> Health issues are another thing.

If I’m remembering your previous posts correctly, you’re quite aware that mental health is absolutely a part of this. It’s a very big part for some people.

I’ve never felt that I’ve lack “smart”. What I lack is passion, willpower, and consistency. From where I sit, I expect that I’d be much better off both financially and emotionally if my situation were reversed.

Re: The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new computer model confirms

#160

Ugh, I wish the author had made the point without the computer simulation. I think there might be merit to the argument people make more money than their intelligence, or effort, seems to indicate. And the author lays out some basic arguments here: "But there is a problem with this idea: while wealth distribution follows a power law, the distribution of human skills generally follows a normal distribution that is sym…

Sometimes it is (unfortunately) necessary to do the computer simulation in order to get people to read/value the article.
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