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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#181

Post by smallerize »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #162
testrun wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

If you are growing revenue at a high rate then taking profit is a misallocation of resources. That is short-term thinking. It is much better to reinvest in revenue growth. You can take small profit now or much larger profit later. Insisting that companies need to be profitable even when growing revenue rapidly is failing the marshmallow test.

I guess net isn't the relevant measure, but what are the unit economics? Are they actually making money selling tokens?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#182

Post by nixon_why69 »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #162
testrun wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

If you are growing revenue at a high rate then taking profit is a misallocation of resources. That is short-term thinking. It is much better to reinvest in revenue growth. You can take small profit now or much larger profit later. Insisting that companies need to be profitable even when growing revenue rapidly is failing the marshmallow test.

The point is that the unit economics are way worse because inference is expensive. Cost of goods sold matters, even if you're reinvesting profits.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#183

Post by thuuuomas »

olalonde wrote: post #120
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

Do you use Grok multiple times per day? Is Grok solving Erdos problems?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#184

Post by deadbabe »

Xunjin wrote: post #115
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

One thing I have come to realize, is that worrying about bubbles will keep you poor.

If everyone is in the bubble and it pops, everyone is in the same boat, so you’re not really going to be poorer than your peers by comparison.

If it’s not a bubble and you are wrong, you will fall way behind everyone else and just watch people get richer and richer doing the exact same thing you should have done.

Also, just because something is a bubble doesn’t mean it has to end in a devastating pop. Sometimes bubbles expand and then just get diffused. The exponential rise stops and prices plateau, but it just becomes a new normal and things stagnate for a while before resuming normal upward growth.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#185

Post by podunkPDX »

timmg wrote: post #8

The way I've been thinking about it: there is too much money trying to pour into the market. That's why valuations are so high. Maybe getting more of these big private companies public will bring valuations down a bit. (Just my impression. No math or financial studies behind it :)

I'd say your sense is not wrong: https://www.thisamericanlife.org/355/the-giant-pool-of-money

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#186

Post by christophilus »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #151
2ff wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> youre saying they will both become the economy They said exponential and you read unlimited.

An exponent on $1T isn’t unlimited, but it is an uninvestible thesis in my book.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#187

Post by Analemma_ »

d--b wrote: post #177
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

Wow, didn’t know that. If SpaceX tanks and 401ks are left holding the bag, this could result in the biggest class action lawsuit ever.

Oh, SpaceX already has that covered: thanks to the TX legislature, SpaceX shareholders cannot file shareholder lawsuits, you can only complain to the "Texas Business Court" or get binding arbitration [0].

[0]: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-21/spa...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#188

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Auracle wrote: post #164
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there is too much money trying to pour into the market Keep in mind that inflation ran over 7% annualized in April [1]. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The vast majority of that was fuel.

> vast majority of that was fuel

Everything else is up around 3% YoY. And if energy and transportation are up double digits, and producer prices are up double digits, other consumer prices will follow.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#189

Post by themafia »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #108
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

> All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing S&P has not finalized a rule change yet.

Are you actually optimistic?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#190

Post by waterheater »

cowmix wrote: post #133
giancarlostoro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

You'll overpay -- but not by trillions.

On one order, correct, but it's still on the order of hundreds of millions to billions.

Also, keep in mind that a stock price discounts expected future cash flows. Is it likely that SpaceX will have a near-peer competitor within a few years? No, it's not, and that market share is being priced-in.

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