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Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

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Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#181

Post by [deleted] »

jacobolus wrote: post #73
ineedasername wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What am I missing? Shifting suppliers on this scale in normal times isn't a quick process. Right now global logistics are still a complete & total mess. With great uncertainty, $cost becomes somewhat disconnected from supply. Right now futures are up about 40%. Availability won't mean much if it isn't affordable, and countries need to lock in supply because it's not really a JIT distribution system (see previous poi…

Grain is shipped in large specialized dry bulk cargo ships. It’s a lot closer to ship from Ukraine to, say, Egypt than to ship from Australia or Canada or even India. If you ship your grain N times farther, you need N times as many ships to make the same number of trips. Those ships don’t exist or can’t be mustered on short notice, so you have to use some other kind of (less-specialized, less efficient and more expen…

[deleted]

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#182

Post by pempem »

confidantlake wrote: post #164
pixl97 wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure about the EU, but the US has a massive truck driver shortage already.

Is there really a shortage or are salaries just not high enough to attract candidates?

Agree.

If the options are:

- kill more people to end the war and return wheat supply

- send more people to potentially die while killing more people to end the war and return the wheat supply

- or pay more to get wheat to where it needs to be to ensure other people don't die of starvation during this war.

I truly wish that the answer was: - pay more people to get wheat where it needs to be

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#183

Post by pempem »

8note wrote: post #179
pempem wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another step up opportunity for China would definitely be problematic for the US

Problem for US hegemony. For the US, its likely a net benefit in that in buying cheap Chinese wheat, those consumers will be more able to afford expensive american ones

Agreed, and that cheap chinese wheat would be a massive problem for US hegemony on which many, many things in the US and adjacent economies rest.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#184

Post by baybal2 »

thepasswordis wrote: post #107
velcrohacker wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your source does not support your claims.

Yes it does. Read the entire article. Or if you don’t actually care, don’t. But please don’t spread misinformation like this.

No post body was provided.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#185

Post by baybal2 »

saiya-jin wrote: post #86
thepasswordis wrote: post #35

I absolutely despise things like this. The war in Ukraine, amplified by the West's anemic and at best useless sanctions, have likely led to a famine which will effect millions of people. Yeah, us sitting here in our offices in the richest country in the world, arguably the people who helped cause this, won't be effected. Maybe our food prices go up a tiny bit. The people in developing countries, like usual, will now…

> Putin is a monster who has now killed (directly and indirectly) millions, and destroyed countries Corrected that for ya. I don't offer quick safe easy solutions to above issues. I don't think they exist. Don't vote for Trump-like populists effectively trying to sell rest of western world to Russia just because they are republicans just as you? Don't leave weak states at mercy of all-grabbing merciless powerful indu…

> So, what's the solution to this situation?

I wrote this many times, the lowest blood price for subduing Russia is a NATO-wide airborne operation to behead Russian government, and a mother of all airlifts.

You fight a mafia state the way you fight a mafia, by simultaneously dismembering, and beheading it.

To completely subdue Russia, NATO has an option to do first strike nuclear attack with half of its combined arsenal along the lines I wrote above.

Russia is a hypercentralised state beyond imagination. Russia will cease its existence as a state if Moscow region is taken out, and the most limited counterforce attrition is ensured.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#186

Post by rdtwo »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #103
mooreds wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the shortfall in exported wheat is ~1% of global production, and farmers in other countries (India, USA) already are planting more to make up for it, what is preventing Egypt and others from importing from those other countries to replace Ukraine/Russian exports? What am I missing?

> What am I missing? Logistics. Food scarcity is a problem not of supply but of transport. More wheat in the American heartland doesn't help Egypt if every truck, ship and port is booked out for six months. More rice produced in India doesn't help if half of it rots en route to the city.

This famine is primarily a logistics problem not supply.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#187

Post by randomdata »

nkurz wrote: post #155
randomdata wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'll mention that while winter wheat is planted in the winter, it's harvested in the summer or fall. Who is harvesting winter wheat in the fall? Even here in snowy Canada it's a late harvest if the winter wheat comes off in August. Mid-July is typical. Spring wheat is a different story.

Hmm. The page I linked shows Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming with a harvest season extending into September. But other than Idaho (Sept 14) not by much. So technically I might be right, but only in the same way that "Spring" is also correct for the deep South. I had assumed that most of Canada would be later than the Northern tier of the US, but apparently I'm wrong. I wonder if it's becaus…

> I had assumed that most of Canada would be later than the Northern tier of the US

It is, but you don't find much winter wheat outside of Southern Ontario, which is actually pretty far south in the grand scheme of things. The most southern end of the province is on the same plane as California.

The Canadian prairies, where most of the wheat is grown, are all about the spring wheat. That's typically a September harvest.

> Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming

Only one of those states is not contiguous with Canada. Given much of the same environment, they share a lot of the same farming practices as western Canada. In other words, your dates no doubt include spring wheat, despite what the opening section of the document says. This explains the wide variances (July - September) in some cases, with winter wheat being the early crop and spring wheat being later.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#188

Post by jacobolus »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #150
jacobolus wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Grain is shipped in large specialized dry bulk cargo ships. It’s a lot closer to ship from Ukraine to, say, Egypt than to ship from Australia or Canada or even India. If you ship your grain N times farther, you need N times as many ships to make the same number of trips. Those ships don’t exist or can’t be mustered on short notice, so you have to use some other kind of (less-specialized, less efficient and more expen…

> If you ship your grain N times farther, you need N times as many ships to make the same number of trips. Which would be really bad if it was a global increase, but when it's a tiny sliver of the market you only need a sliver of spare capacity.

Most world grain is shipped short distances within countries (by rail, truck, canal, ..) and consumed locally. Only a small proportion is shipped internationally, and usually the shortest possible routes are picked (because that is cheaper).

Entirely taking out Ukrainian grain shipments is not a small sliver of the total amount of long-distance grain shipping, but instead requires a significant increase in the total deadweight-ton-miles. We are talking about taking 10%+ of international wheat/corn/barley trade and making it travel 3–6x further than it otherwise would, in an industry that usually runs on thin capacity margins. (Disclaimer: I am not an expert and have not done a detailed calculation.)

That is a potential logistical nightmare. Hopefully smart people with the power to make large temporary changes are working on ameliorating the pain and keeping everyone fed.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#189

Post by csee »

c1ccccc1 wrote: post #79
csee wrote: post #16

I quickly googled what the annual wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia are and got a much bigger number than the tweet suggests.

I googled as well. Ukraine exports were ~ 20 million tonnes. The tweet says the expected shortfall is ~ 7 million tonnes, probably because Ukraine is not expected to lose all of their production. If they did lose all 20 million, then the fraction would be 20 million / 778 million = 2.6%. Total production (including that consumed locally) is about 25 million, so if all of that were lost, the overall difference would b…

We need to also consider Russia's wheat exports. They've threatened protection measures on their wheat.

Re: Missing wheat from the war is less than 1% of global wheat crop

#190

Post by jacobolus »

thehappypm wrote: post #170
log1_aa wrote: post #152

I do not agree with the author's analysis - the impact on supply and demand are enormous, and the 1% number does not matter. Effectively, the wheat buyer in Egypt (and other importers) needs to pay high enough prices such that: 1. Industrial wheat consumers in Europe/US and elsewhere substitute wheat with other products, making more wheat available for exports. 2. Previously untapped stocks get exported instead of st…

How do you argue that wheat demand is inelastic? Demand for food as a whole is inelastic, but wheat is just one of many, many food sources. Wheat is a cheap food. The second is stops becoming cheap people will shift to other cheap foods like rice or potatoes. I see a more modest increase in demand for alternatives that pulls all prices up, but it’s hard to see how prices skyrocket.

You are expecting everyone in a country that usually consumes ~5–10x more wheat than rice or potatoes to flip their whole food culture overnight? Do you have any historical examples of that happening? How did it work out?

Where are they going to ship the tens of millions of extra tons of rice/potatoes from that won’t be just as big a logistical change?

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