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Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#181

Post by myko »

api wrote: post #73
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

> lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917 This just brought to mind the idea that it's remarkable that America has weathered at least one and possibly three (depending on the definition of success) lost wars in the past 50 years without severe political consequences: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It wasn'…

A big part of this is due to them not being military losses. In each engagement the American military closed with and destroyed the enemy repeatedly. The nation building part failed in Vietnam and Afghanistan.

Iraq did a bit better in that respect, but it isn't a new Japan.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#182

Post by thematrixturtle »

_0w8t wrote: post #140
thematrixturtle wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty delusional even in Japan, nobody seriously expects Russia to return them. Early in the post-Soviet era there were some serious-ish proposals about Russia handing them back in exchange for massive financial aid, but ever since Putin took the reins it's been obvious that this is just not going to happen. I don't think even the Japanese government wants them back at this point, Hokkaido (the nearest big isla…

Putin did return quite significant territories to China in 2008 to settle a dispute that resulted in a small-scale war in 1969, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict .

Fair enough, but the geopolitics are quite different: China and Russia are (wary) allies and the agreement was more about agreeing where to draw the line than handing over war spoils.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#183

Post by golergka »

rjzzleep wrote: post #18
zelphirkalt wrote: post #13

Just yesterday I was thinking: What if others started to grab territory, which Russia claims to be its territory around the world now? Wouldn't that be fortunate timing and overload Russian army? Today I read this.

Just yesterday I was thinking: What if we piss off a nuclear power all around the world now? Wouldn't that be fortunate timing to solve global warming? FTFY. I mean sure we only have another 50 years before the planet is unlivable for us, but why desperately try to accelerate it? EDIT: here is Russias military doctrine from 2000 https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2000-05/russias-military-doc...

> nuclear power

Is it though? Russian conventional army has clearly been devastated by corruption and bad administration, as the generals and staff didn't anticipate that it would actually be used in a real all-out war. What makes you think that nuclear forces are in better shape?

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#184

Post by q1w2 »

waffleiron wrote: post #43

For people who want to read up, this is quite a complex situation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute#World_Wa...

The history is complex. The current politics are not. It's just a way of Japan reminding Russia how unhappy it is with the war in Ukraine.

The islands are barely inhabited.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#185

Post by HWR_14 »

EGreg wrote: post #146
HWR_14 wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When is the last time the US annexed land or tried to?

Hawaii? Philippines / Guam / etc? Guantanamo? Panama canal? But I see Russia invading and occupying, not annexing (unless you mean stationing troops in the “independent” regions). They specifically disavow annexing unless the government refuses to negotiate and sign a peace agreement. They already did this exact playbook in the Russo-Georgian war, down to defending the two breakaway republics, the provocations, the “…

So, the last time the US annexed land by force was the 1800s and the Spanish American war. That's probably why the US isn't getting sanctioned, but Russia is and China would.

Meanwhile, I look at Crimea and say Russia isn't shy about annexing. And this particular thread was trying to talk about if China could invade Taiwan without sanctions, using examples of Russia and the US as similar powers. My point is that wars of annexation are met with sanctions.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#186

Post by random_upvoter »

yardie wrote: post #6

With so much of their military tied up in the boondoggle on their western front I guess now would be the perfect time to pounce on disputed territory. Knowing your enemy distracted.

I think that piling on top of an already volatile situation is a distinctly unwise move.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#187

Post by mcphage »

HWR_14 wrote: post #135
mcphage wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I declared the basement of my house (finished, furnished) complete with bathroom, sink and microwave, to be my own sovereign domain. How far along your sewer pipes does your domain extend?

I believe he is trying to enforce the border against his family, not the legal authorities of his jurisdiction

Sure, but when his family finally tires of his imperialist warmongering, they can just block his sewer line. Let's see him hold onto his territory then!

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#189

Post by cool_dude85 »

throwaway_4ever wrote: post #29

Here’s a good heuristic: if the only people alive for the past change of hands are old enough to physically be incapable of being the ones sent to fight for it, the dispute is over as-is. (Why send the young to fight over something that’s never been an issue for them?) Would save us a whole lot of historical grievances, revanchism and war by retconning the past centuries into a new issue.

Let's bring war for territory back, baby! Just gotta hold it for 20-30 years.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#190

Post by inglor_cz »

HidyBush wrote: post #164
jcfrei wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which would probably be reintegrated into Georgia and pave the way for potential NATO or EU membership. Transnistria integration into Moldova. LDR / DPR maybe even Crimea back to Ukraine.

> Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Can anybody confirm this? I haven't seen any state official talking about getting Königsberg or Karelia back. Where has this positioning been hinted? I might have missed something.

I haven't heard an official statement about Kaliningrad either, but I am acquainted with a few MEPs and their assistants, and there is some excited backroom talk about it.

The Kaliningrad exclave is a huge territorial and security headache for the EU.

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