DHH can write my web framework but I wouldn't let him manage my money.
Facebook is not worth $33 billion
171–180 of 266 posts
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#172DHH: you should read this Business Week article on Google in 2000: http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/dec2000/nf200012...
I love 37signals, as I'm sure most of us here do too, but this analysis on Facebook is completely haywire. I bet he would've said the same thing about Google's prospects back in 2000, just like that BW article.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#173Anyone want to help me come up with fair terms for a bet between myself (twitter.com/harryh) and dhh? See our back and forth on twitter.
Where's Spolsky? He should be in on this. Maybe DHH can put up his Zonda for something that Joel values highly.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#174I bet it's worth more than that.
Thanks for saying this -- I think it's interesting that the comments here boil down to:
. Disbelief that FB is worth that much, or
. ad-hominem attacks one way or the other, or
. Technical discussions on whether there's sufficient liquidity to get a real 'price'.
When I look at what facebook has done, and the absolute fucking mountain of data they sit on, FAR better quality than Google's in my opinion, If I were on the board, I would be thinking "brilliant job executing on growth, guys. I'm deeply excited to see you make all this pay once you're not running around putting out massive fires all the time."
It's not going to be rocket science to make it pay, and pay, and pay...
Taking another slice: I'd bet my entire (comparatively very small) net worth that the board would unanimously vote down a $33B cash buyout offer right now. There's just no way you guys think that FB has topped out; it hasn't really even gotten going when you think of a complete, end-to-end business model yet.
Job offers happily accepted. : ).
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#175Apple's also not worth $267B. Based on the current rate that people are selling Apple stock, the demand for Apple stock makes for an equilibrium price such that Apple's market cap is $267B. But if every share of stock were up for sale, they'd have to lower the price to sell it all because there aren't an infinite number of people willing to buy Apple stock at a $267B valuation. Facebook is probably more overvalued by…
Maybe, all the shares being for sale does sort of implicated a lack of demand so the price would drop, it's a very far extreme end of the curve though. With an FB IPO and "all the shares" being for sale at once, I'd have to assume they'd go up, lot's of people seem to believe in their future.
The flip side of all this valuation talk (you know, DHH had me at 'evaluation' hahahaha. that's priceless.) is that if you were to attempt to "buy" Apple, it would cost you a lot more than $267B... maybe even a trillion dollars. Does that make them worth more or less than their valuation? Don't get me wrong, there are dynamics here, it's not a static calculation.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#176Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's weird, it's like in Chicago they don't have multiplication or something. Oh, and New York smells. (take that!) Two of my heroes dragging discourse on hacker news into the toilet. What's the world coming to?
You should never meet your heroes (IRL or online). It invariably leads to disappointment.
I wasn't disappointed by meeting DHH. In fact, it led me to respect him even more.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#177Earlier quoted context omitted.
Haven't got a dime from me, and they don't have an idea on how to.
Also a dime per user/year is more than it seems when you can only collect it through indirect means (ads, charging other companies for using your platform). Remember their ~500mio user figure also includes the overwhelming portion of users who generate no more than a handful of page impressions per month. It's not like facebook could invent a yearly membership fee or start selling t-shirts or such... Well, they could…
They'd be lucky if ~0.5% of their audience would actually pay.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
No offense but have you taken more companies public than: * Marc Andreessen * Jim Breyer * Peter Thiel because they are some of the directors on the Facebook board, and I think they know their stuff.
Argument to Authority is a logical fallacy.
That logical fallacy always bothers me especially in cases where experience and inside knowledge are crucial to forming an opinion. The people listed above all have experience, knowledge and are more qualified to value companies than many other people. Of course it doesn't make their opinions absolutely correct, but it does lend some legitimacy to the FB valuation argument.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#179Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#180Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's weird, it's like in Chicago they don't have multiplication or something. Oh, and New York smells. (take that!) Two of my heroes dragging discourse on hacker news into the toilet. What's the world coming to?
Apparently it wasn't obvious from the "New York smells" point that it was a joke. So let me spell it out: It was a joke (even if it's actually, technically true. Many parts of New York really do smell from all that trash on the street!).
Joel's comment:
Is the problem that they're sitting there in a city without any other Internet industry, stewing in their own witty ideas, listening only to the adoring comments they get from the groupies?
.. is a often genuine criticism of 37s here on HN. Probably part of the reason the joke was missed.