Live data from Hacker News

Facebook is not worth $33 billion

37signals.com

151–160 of 266 posts

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#151
Apple's also not worth $267B. Based on the current rate that people are selling Apple stock, the demand for Apple stock makes for an equilibrium price such that Apple's market cap is $267B. But if every share of stock were up for sale, they'd have to lower the price to sell it all because there aren't an infinite number of people willing to buy Apple stock at a $267B valuation.

Facebook is probably more overvalued by this because so little Facebook stock is up for sale, but it's not really fair to make this argument about Facebook without mentioning that the same issue exists for all publicly traded companies as well (save a company where all of its stock is changing hands every day).

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#152
post #78
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's weird, it's like in Chicago they don't have multiplication or something. Oh, and New York smells. (take that!) Two of my heroes dragging discourse on hacker news into the toilet. What's the world coming to?

Both of them have some insights worth pondering, but the attacks are kinda negatively overshadowing the discussion. Joel really shouldn't have started the Chicago hyperbole. Do they have some history or it's just impulsive?

I think it all started with Joel's "Language Wars" article http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2006/09/01.html for which DHH responded with "Fear, Uncertain, and Doubt by Joel Spolsky" http://www.loudthinking.com/arc/000596.html. They have been at loggerheads since then.

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#153
post #99
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2. The bond and equity markets are based on sound regulation, transparency, and quarterly statements. Facebook has none of those things when it operates in the dark of the secondary markets. 3. Again, these premiums are based on outstanding shares traded under the transparency of the public stock market. See Secondary Suckers for a nice take on the perils of the secondary market: http://www.homethinking.com/brontemed…

> The bond and equity markets are based on sound regulation, transparency... Presumably subprime mortgage backed securities are the exception that proves the rule...

The stock market is well regulated but the bond markets a lot less so, hence that's where Wall Street makes big profits (when times are good.) They make serious profits as 'market makers' (standing between buyers and sellers) with bonds.

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#156
post #62
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2. That's just not correct. Spend twenty minutes talking to anyone who trades in bonds or equity before you make assumptions about what liquidity you need to get a good price... it's not much. Facebook trades all the time on sharespost, certainly enough to be liquid and to reach a market price. Google itself only has a tiny fraction of the shares available to the public (10% if I remember correctly) and far less than…

2. The bond and equity markets are based on sound regulation, transparency, and quarterly statements. Facebook has none of those things when it operates in the dark of the secondary markets. 3. Again, these premiums are based on outstanding shares traded under the transparency of the public stock market. See Secondary Suckers for a nice take on the perils of the secondary market: http://www.homethinking.com/brontemed…

These are all valid points, but they are logically equivalent to saying "I don't understand why anyone pays $12 for a Ke$ha album".

You may not agree on the worth of the album or of the shares, and nobody is forcing you to buy either one. That some people do consider it a good price is enough to result in a market price for both, on the basis of which many decisions are made.

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#157
post #5

I hate to leap in with what seems like an ad-hominem attack on the 37 signals, but their utter and complete misunderstanding of all the basics of business is starting to grate on me, and I'm wondering if it has anything to do with Chicago. Is the problem that they're sitting there in a city without any other Internet industry, stewing in their own witty ideas, listening only to the adoring comments they get from the…

Seriously, Joel, Facebook just needs to "optimize" a bit and they'll be more profitable? Really? With a valuation of $33 billion, Facebook needs to make a bit more than a dime or two extra from their users. They need a ton of real dollars from each and every user or (more likely) dozens or hundreds of dollars from some users and nothing from the rest. How are they going to do that, exactly?

How will Facebook change its platform to convert its hundreds of millions of users, who signed up for a free party, into billions of dollars per year without spoiling the party? No one likes getting invited to a party with their friends only to find that the beer isn't free after 11:30, or worse, they've been tricked into attending an MLM meeting. If Facebook could convert eyeballs to dollars the way Google can, there was no reason not to do so when they had 50 million users, or 100 million, or 200 million... It hasn't been done, though, because it would spoil the party and stop that lovely flow of VC money.

I am just gobsmacked that, within just a few years of the US housing market bubble popping and the financial empires getting caught with their pants down, you would continue to support the speculators' fantasy of pre-IPO tech valuations. These types of valuations aren't just irresponsible or insane, they're scams! The consumers have no money or credit left, so the easy money is going to come from gullible investors.

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#158
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember a documentary on Walmart where someone said they succeeded by realizing that a small percentage from a very large number is still a very large number.

Joe Walton wrote a book about it.

Maybe Sam Walton?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Walton

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Walton

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#159
post #5

I hate to leap in with what seems like an ad-hominem attack on the 37 signals, but their utter and complete misunderstanding of all the basics of business is starting to grate on me, and I'm wondering if it has anything to do with Chicago. Is the problem that they're sitting there in a city without any other Internet industry, stewing in their own witty ideas, listening only to the adoring comments they get from the…

Perhaps it is more correct to say that the potential revenues from this thing don't justify the valuation. It wouldn't be the first company to be overvalued and the fact that many owners of this stock cannot sell is certainly relevant.

Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion

#160
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The bond and equity markets are based on sound regulation, transparency... Presumably subprime mortgage backed securities are the exception that proves the rule...

The stock market is well regulated but the bond markets a lot less so, hence that's where Wall Street makes big profits (when times are good.) They make serious profits as 'market makers' (standing between buyers and sellers) with bonds.

You view the bid/ask spread as an indicator of poor regulation? Not actually true.

The spread reflects the willingness of firms to compete as market makers. More firms competing means a smaller spread.

The spread also reflects the risk associated with the market maker holding inventory. The more perceived risk, the bigger the spread.

Post reply on HN