Facebook is not worth $33 billion
37signals.com
Facebook is not worth $33 billion
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Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#2What facebook is really worth we'll know when they IPO and they sell off a majority portion of the stock. Until then it's anybody's guess.
I wouldn't buy their stock at any valuation, there are much more solid ways of investing than speculating on something that already feels over valued. And if I would want more risk then I'd rather put my money in start-ups than facebook.
The next bubble is here, and it will go the same way as the previous ones.
Remember what netscape was supposed to be worth.
edit: sorry, that 'majority' was meant to be 'major'.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#3"Facebook has been around for seven years. It has 500 million users. If you can’t figure out how to make money off half a billion people in seven years, I’m going to go out on a limb and say you’re unlikely to ever do."
This is a strawman. If they wanted to make money right now they would. But they also observed many examples of turning-the-faucet-on gone wrong, especially with the whole privacy issues, that they are moving very carefully in that space. But they will make a lot of money if they decide to start.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#4"In other words, the evaluation is resting on the flawed assumption that Facebook could actually ever get 33 times as much money to change hands if they wanted to. There’s just no way, no how that’s happening right now. If it could, they’d IPO tomorrow."
This is simply not true. There are many reasons why a company may want to stay private.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#5I hate to leap in with what seems like an ad-hominem attack on the 37 signals, but their utter and complete misunderstanding of all the basics of business is starting to grate on me, and I'm wondering if it has anything to do with Chicago. Is the problem that they're sitting there in a city without any other Internet industry, stewing in their own witty ideas, listening only to the adoring comments they get from the groupies? How else could you explain just how far they seem to have drifted away from basic reality?
First of all, David: The word is VALUATION, not evaluation. KTHX.
Secondly, EVERY SINGLE COMPANY IN THE WORLD that has shares that trade is valued by taking the last share traded and multiplying by the number of shares outstanding. It's just the DEFINITION of valuation. It's TAUTOLOGICAL.
The whole section "Minority investment evaluations aren’t real" is so economically bizarre and incorrect that I don't even know where to start. It's like you wrote a blog post arguing that it is incorrect to refer to a 5' tall boy as 5' tall because he's often sitting down. Every single day every single public company in the world is valued by the last share traded, usually for a tiny fraction of the company.
Finally, to the main point. Facebook has certainly figured out how to make money off of 500,000,000 users. And as they optimize, they will make a lot more money. When they figure out how to make another DIME off of every user, they will instantly be making another $50,000,000 a year... in pure profit. How much profit will 37signals make if you figure out how to make another dime off of every customer? Eh David? Facebook works on the theory that when you have a lot of people, you don't have to make as much per person, because the amount of money you make is the number of customers times the amount of money you make off of each one. Again, that pesky multiplication.
It's weird, it's like in Chicago they don't have multiplication or something.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#6[deleted]
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#7What facebook is really worth we'll know when they IPO and they sell off a majority portion of the stock. Until then it's anybody's guess. I wouldn't buy their stock at any valuation, there are much more solid ways of investing than speculating on something that already feels over valued. And if I would want more risk then I'd rather put my money in start-ups than facebook. The next bubble is here, and it will go the…
That's not correct. There is a secondary market for Facebook stock which is plenty liquid (see Sharespost, et. al).
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#8What facebook is really worth we'll know when they IPO and they sell off a majority portion of the stock. Until then it's anybody's guess. I wouldn't buy their stock at any valuation, there are much more solid ways of investing than speculating on something that already feels over valued. And if I would want more risk then I'd rather put my money in start-ups than facebook. The next bubble is here, and it will go the…
Companies rarely "sell off a majority portion of the stock" when they IPO. More typically, they sell an additional 20% to 30% new shares to select investors.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#9Bless the 37signals guys. Always fun for a laugh.
Re: Facebook is not worth $33 billion
#10[deleted]