Are there any articles about how/why the sluice gates are seized? Is it sediment blocking them? Or did something mechanical break? I would like to hear from an engineer. I know that the US Corps of Engineers has probably been to it during the various wars. I know the overall problem is the porous rock and whole dam collapsing (which is horrible for the locals), I am just curious what the best way to relieve the pressure to buy time.
Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people
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Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people
#172I've had six civil engineers tell me that that dam has 6-months at maximum. The odds of collapse within that period ranged from 80-95% in estimates.
Is it because of the coming snow melt? Or just time is running out?
Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
What could possibly go wrong?
Various forms of shaped charges and explosives could be used to open the sluice gates but that would leave them permanently opened. The main fear here is that if the dam reaches its design head, the water will tunnel underneath and around the dam through the water soluble rocks. The dam can't exceed the design head because of the spillway that is visible to the south east of the dam. So explosives could well be used…
> So explosives could well be used to force open the sluice gates.
This would make for a great Michael Bay movie, but real life doesn't work that way.
Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people
#174Earlier quoted context omitted.
This revolting plan sounds almost like "Dr. Strangelove"... https://www.google.de/search?q=world+targets+in+megadeaths&t... (read the title on the spine of the book)
There is nothing wrong considering something.
Just cover all the bases: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owI7DOeO_yg
Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people
#175To give some sense of the scale of the disaster that would follow a failure, the US considered bombing that dam and releasing all that water in response to a potential chemical attack on US troops during Gulf War I, according to Colin Powell ( http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/script_b.html - search for dams).
They considered an attack that would have killed ~1M people, presumably mainly civilians? sigh smh
They also have contingencies for several variants of zombie incursions and the arrival of a hostile sentient AI.
The military considers a lot of things.
Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people
#176Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think chances of ISIS themselves blowing it up when pushed away are greater. Those guys are crazy. Not very competent, but crazy.
How difficult is it to blow up the dam such that the water rushes out? I mean bombing a place to kill people is easy, but I have no idea if you have to hit specific spots on the dam or whether it is enough to just hit any area.
The allies (the RAF) had fairly specialized bombs in WWII to blow dams. They would fly in from upstream and drop a bomb shaped like a barrel (picture a barrel of oil) from very low altitude. The bomb would skip along the surface as it lost momentum and then sink close to the dam wall. At a certain pressure it would blow and take advantage of the hydrostatic shock to break up the wall.
Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people
#177Earlier quoted context omitted.
How difficult is it to blow up the dam such that the water rushes out? I mean bombing a place to kill people is easy, but I have no idea if you have to hit specific spots on the dam or whether it is enough to just hit any area.
The allies (the RAF) had fairly specialized bombs in WWII to blow dams. They would fly in from upstream and drop a bomb shaped like a barrel (picture a barrel of oil) from very low altitude. The bomb would skip along the surface as it lost momentum and then sink close to the dam wall. At a certain pressure it would blow and take advantage of the hydrostatic shock to break up the wall. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…
"Bouncing Bettys"
Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would imagine siphoning might be a simple enough process and could be setup in multiple places along the dam to avoid the asymmetric draining issues mentioned further in the discussion here on hacker news.
You can syphon up about 30ft. The dam is 371 ft.
Why not use pumps instead of syphoning?
Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people
#179Earlier quoted context omitted.
Surprised that some big infrastructure company like Halli or Bechtel didn't see an opportunity to scheme some business from this.
Rebuilding Mosul is more lucrative that maintenance on Mosul dam?
Look at the upside - when it blows they can always rent bulldozers to bury all the bodies.
Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people
#180Drain it. Seriously. Any other response is either unrealistically expensive/complicated or reckless. Sure, the Italian company could maintain it if they aren't attacked by ISIS, but that is a big if when failure is immanent.
> Drain it. Seriously. Easy to say when the sluice gates are stuck and the dam represents more than 10% of the country's already way under demand electricity production.
Where is that electricity going? Mosul?
If it is, then shutting it down would cut off an enemy's economic resources and force them to choose between an angry population and attacking a fortified position against air superiority.
Yes, being without electricity does great harm to the civilian population, but less harm than a massacre-by-flood.