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Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

theguardian.com

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Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#61

Post by Vespasian »

moonshinefe wrote: post #4
zazen wrote: post #2

The article says the Iraqi government has hired an Italian contractor to reinforce and maintain the dam. This presumably makes the massive-disaster scenario described in the Guardian's rather clickbaity headline somewhat less likely. Edit: fair enough, it might not be as simple as just hiring some engineers to fix it; I hadn't considered the location. But still: when the news event that happened yesterday is that som…

Not necessarily. Mosul is ISIS's stronghold and what happens if they don't take too kindly to the 450 Italian troops + workers over there working on the dam that's next to their main city? It seems quite against their self-interests to stop the work, but you never know with this level of crazy.

Fighting with heavy weaponry (such as artillery) around the dam is probably not in their interest either (potentially flooding their 'capital').

Shells tend to have a negative effect on structural stability.

On the the other hand obviously while they were holding the dam it was apparently free for all machinery looting season, which is not to clever if you plan to establish your headquarter downstream.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#62

Post by james_pm »

To give some sense of the scale of the disaster that would follow a failure, the US considered bombing that dam and releasing all that water in response to a potential chemical attack on US troops during Gulf War I, according to Colin Powell (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/script_b.html - search for dams).

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#64

Post by chris_wot »

thomasz wrote: post #48
atdt wrote: post #31

> The dam was designed by a Swiss firm of consultants and built by a German-Italian consortium in 1984. Water began seeping through in 1986, when it became apparent that the geological issues were worse than the consultants had predicted. I doubt that this was an innocent failure on their part. There was a huge financial incentive for these firms to find some way to validate this project. Successive foreign consultan…

I just don't understand why you assume that the risks were not disclosed to the government. In my eyes, it's way more likely that the government decided to go ahead anyway. This was one of Saddam Hussein's prestige projects - telling him that it couldn't be done could've been fatal.

If those firms knew if the extreme risks then they should have decided not to accept the work!

I think it's pretty much a given that Sadaam Hussein, even back then, was a dictator who wouldn't necessarily put the safety of his people first.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#65

Post by dan1234 »

atdt wrote: post #31

> The dam was designed by a Swiss firm of consultants and built by a German-Italian consortium in 1984. Water began seeping through in 1986, when it became apparent that the geological issues were worse than the consultants had predicted. I doubt that this was an innocent failure on their part. There was a huge financial incentive for these firms to find some way to validate this project. Successive foreign consultan…

Judging by the Wikipedia entry[0], engineers did warn of it and propose a solution, but it would have slowed construction.

> Because the dam was constructed on a foundation of soluble gypsum, the engineers recommended the implementation of a grout curtain within the foundation before the superstructure was built. Instead, to speed construction of the dam, engineers installed a grouting gallery that would allow continuous grouting of the dam's foundation in order to promote stability.

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosul_Dam#Instability_and_reme...

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#68

Post by robin_reala »

Blaque wrote: post #57
tim333 wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can syphon up about 30ft. The dam is 371 ft.

Can you explain why a syphon won't work over 30ft?

http://what-if.xkcd.com/143/ has more details (and a rather more fantastical situation).

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#69

Post by rwallace »

adrianN wrote: post #46
rwallace wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it suffice to just take a stick of dynamite to one of the seized gates?

What could possibly go wrong?

You (and at least one other) reacted as though I had claimed such an action would come with a guarantee nothing could go wrong. Which is, to put it bluntly, a rather stupid reaction given that:

1. I didn't make a claim. I asked a question.

2. According to the experts, the clock is currently ticking down on a million lives with no idea of how much time is left, so your implied suggestion of doing nothing (which is the implied suggestion when you summarily dismiss a line of thought while providing nothing in its place) is... well, how exactly would you describe the suggestion of just letting a million people die, had it come from someone else?

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#70

Post by arethuza »

gioele wrote: post #54

This is the bigger version of the Vajont Dam's tragedy of the '60s that killed two thousand people and wrecked an entire province. [1] > At 10:39 P.M., a massive landslide of about 260,000,000 cubic metres (340,000,000 cu yd) of forest, earth, and rock fell into the reservoir at up to 110 kilometres per hour (68 mph), completely filling the narrow reservoir behind the dam. The landslide was complete in just 45 second…

Except that in the case of the Vajont Dam disaster that dam didn't actually fail and is mostly still there.
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