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Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

theguardian.com

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Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#111

Post by krschultz »

TallGuyShort wrote: post #85
james_pm wrote: post #62

To give some sense of the scale of the disaster that would follow a failure, the US considered bombing that dam and releasing all that water in response to a potential chemical attack on US troops during Gulf War I, according to Colin Powell ( http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/script_b.html - search for dams).

They considered an attack that would have killed ~1M people, presumably mainly civilians? sigh smh

Considered means had a study done to see what the effects would be. It doesn't mean that was the preferred strategy.

There are people in the Pentagon considering all kinds of crazy scenarios all the time, so that when crazy actually happens the leaders can make a quick decision based on a briefing book that took a while to put together. It sounds ominous in the press, but it's really innocuous.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#112

Post by mason240 »

TallGuyShort wrote: post #85
james_pm wrote: post #62

To give some sense of the scale of the disaster that would follow a failure, the US considered bombing that dam and releasing all that water in response to a potential chemical attack on US troops during Gulf War I, according to Colin Powell ( http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/script_b.html - search for dams).

They considered an attack that would have killed ~1M people, presumably mainly civilians? sigh smh

They consider everything.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#113

Post by akiselev »

knowaveragejoe wrote: post #95
TallGuyShort wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They considered an attack that would have killed ~1M people, presumably mainly civilians? sigh smh

To play devil's advocate here, any competent military would consider possibilities like this. "War is hell" is said so often these days as to be blasé, but it really is true.

Are you saying that any competent military would consider racking up a civilian death toll on the order of the Auschwitz death camp in the matter of days?

Thank god the US military isn't competent then.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#114

Post by [deleted] »

james_pm wrote: post #62

To give some sense of the scale of the disaster that would follow a failure, the US considered bombing that dam and releasing all that water in response to a potential chemical attack on US troops during Gulf War I, according to Colin Powell ( http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/script_b.html - search for dams).

[deleted]

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#115

Post by tomjen3 »

venomsnake wrote: post #41
mavdi wrote: post #23

Something tells me they want to use the risk of a failing dam as a weapon to pursue Mosul population to rise against ISIS. Or that they just don't care if 1M+ died in an ISIS stronghold.

I think chances of ISIS themselves blowing it up when pushed away are greater. Those guys are crazy. Not very competent, but crazy.

How difficult is it to blow up the dam such that the water rushes out? I mean bombing a place to kill people is easy, but I have no idea if you have to hit specific spots on the dam or whether it is enough to just hit any area.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#116

Post by mckoss »

Retric wrote: post #100
atdt wrote: post #31

> The dam was designed by a Swiss firm of consultants and built by a German-Italian consortium in 1984. Water began seeping through in 1986, when it became apparent that the geological issues were worse than the consultants had predicted. I doubt that this was an innocent failure on their part. There was a huge financial incentive for these firms to find some way to validate this project. Successive foreign consultan…

It's not necessarily a faulty design. It simply requires maintenance that's not happening just like you car engine needs oil and you need to keep swapping that oil out after a while. ex: A spent fuel pool is actually really simple and 'safe' just add water and keep cool. That does not mean you can walk away and not touch one for a year and expect everything to be ok. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spent_fuel_pool

Yes, but it's not "fail-safe". Building a massive dam above a million person flood plain, that requires continuous aggressive maintenance seems short sighted at best.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#117

Post by jksmith »

jamesfe wrote: post #106

I was a Marine in Iraq from 06-09. We constantly built plans for the inevitable demise of this dam. Mostly just estimates of how screwed people would be. I'm surprised it's not blown yet, I was constantly worried someone would bomb it somehow, but 7 years later, it's still standing, so I'm unsure about any estimates given now - the Iraqis were fairly liberal in their estimates in 2006 (it'll fall by 2007) and the sam…

Surprised that some big infrastructure company like Halli or Bechtel didn't see an opportunity to scheme some business from this.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#118

Post by raisedbyninjas »

jksmith wrote: post #117
jamesfe wrote: post #106

I was a Marine in Iraq from 06-09. We constantly built plans for the inevitable demise of this dam. Mostly just estimates of how screwed people would be. I'm surprised it's not blown yet, I was constantly worried someone would bomb it somehow, but 7 years later, it's still standing, so I'm unsure about any estimates given now - the Iraqis were fairly liberal in their estimates in 2006 (it'll fall by 2007) and the sam…

Surprised that some big infrastructure company like Halli or Bechtel didn't see an opportunity to scheme some business from this.

Rebuilding Mosul is more lucrative that maintenance on Mosul dam?

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#119

Post by mratzloff »

If the dam breaks, ISIS will be judged responsible for more deaths than the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Maintenance on the dam almost entirely stopped when ISIS took over, and the grouting machines required for maintaining it were looted. And the dead will be Sunni Muslims--their own "citizens", those who didn't flee when ISIS took control of Mosul.

It will be the lasting legacy of ISIS.

Surely this is a factor in the timing of the US-led effort currently underway to retake Mosul from ISIS, backed by the Iraqi Army.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#120

Post by Lawtonfogle »

akiselev wrote: post #113
knowaveragejoe wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To play devil's advocate here, any competent military would consider possibilities like this. "War is hell" is said so often these days as to be blasé, but it really is true.

Are you saying that any competent military would consider racking up a civilian death toll on the order of the Auschwitz death camp in the matter of days? Thank god the US military isn't competent then.

Yes. They should consider a given plan and look at the costs and the benefits. Kinda like when they drop bombs. Be it normal bombing, the fire bombing of Kyoto, or using nuclear bombs.
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