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How the AI Bubble Will Pop

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Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#161

Post by mixedbit »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #130
mixedbit wrote: post #122

Back of the envelope calculation: Nvidia market cap is 4.5T$, their profit margin is 52%. This means Nvidia would need to sell 1067$ worth of equipment per human being on Earth for investors that buy Nvidia stock today to break even on the investment. Nvidia, unlike Apple, doesn't sell to end users (almost), but to AI companies that provide services to end users. The scale of required spending on Nvidia hardware is c…

> This means Nvidia would need to sell 1067$ worth of equipment per human being on Earth for investors that buy Nvidia stock at current prices to break even on the investment In what period of time?

You break even, when you break even, the faster it happens the better for your investment. With the current earnings it will take 53 years for investors to break even.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#162

Post by BrokenCogs »

rimeice wrote: post #2

> Some people think artificial intelligence will be the most important technology of the 21st century. I don’t, I think a workable fusion reactor will be the most important technology of the 21st century.

Time travel will be the most important invention of the 21st century ;)

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#163

Post by calrain »

donatj wrote: post #123

I feel kind of like a Luddite sometimes but I don't understand why EVERYONE is rushing to use AI? I use a couple different agents to help me code, and ChatGPT has largely replaced Google in my everyday use, but I genuinely don't understand the value proposition of every other companies offerings. I really feel like we're in the same "Get it out first, figure out what it is good for later" bubble we had like 7 years a…

With the ever increasing explosion of devices capable of consuming AI services, and internet infrastructure being so ubiquitous that billions of people can use AI...

Even if a little of everyone's day consumes AI services, then the investment required will be immense. Like what we see.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#164

Post by Cthulhu_ »

philippta wrote: post #44
kumarm wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[even in programming it's inconclusive as to how much better/worse it makes programmers.] Try building something new in claude code (or codex etc) using a programming language you have not used before. Your opinion might change drastically. Current AI tools may not beat the best programmer, they definitely improves average programmer efficiency.

> they definitely improves average programmer efficiency Do we really need more efficient average programmers? Are we in a shortage of average software?

Average programmers do not produce average software; the former implements code, the latter is the full picture and is more about what to build, not how to build it. You don't get a better "what to build" by having above-average developers.

Anyway we don't need more efficient average programmers, time-to-market is rarely down to coding speed / efficiency and more down to "what to build". I don't think AI will make "average" software development work faster or better, case in point being decades of improvements in languages, frameworks and tools that all intend to speed up this process.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#165

Post by tbrownaw »

freehorse wrote: post #116
aurareturn wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No she’s less productive. She just use it because she wants to do less work, be less likely to get promoted, and have to stay in the office longer to finish her work. /s What kind of question is that? Seriously. Are some people here so naive to think that tens of millions out there don’t know when something they choose to use repeatedly multiple times a day every day is making their life harder? Like ChatGPT is some…

It is the kind of question that takes into account that people thinking that they are more productive does not imply that they actually are. This happens in a wide range of contexts, from AI to drugs.

It's not that hard to review how much you actually got done and check whether it matches how much it felt like you were getting done.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#166

Post by seydor »

I don't think the Apollo project factories invested in each other circularly. The AI boom is nominally huge but very little money gets in or out of silicon valley. MS invests in OpenAI because it will get it back via Azure or whatever. ditto for nvidia.

What's the real investment in or out of silicon valley ?

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#167

Post by ivape »

emp17344 wrote: post #157
ivape wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI figured out something on my mind that I didn’t tell it about yesterday (latest Sonnet). My best advice to you is to spend time and allow the AI to blow your mind. Then you’ll get it. Sometimes I sit in wonder at how the fuck it’s able to figure out that much intent without specific instructions. There’s no way anyone programmed it to understand that much. If you’re not blown away by this then I have to assume you…

I don’t understand what you’re saying. You know the AI is incapable of reading your mind, right? Can you provide more information?

More information:

Use the LLM more until you are convinced. If you are not convinced, use it more. Use it more in absurd ways until you are convinced.

Repeat the above until you are convinced.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#168

Post by seydor »

rimeice wrote: post #2

> Some people think artificial intelligence will be the most important technology of the 21st century. I don’t, I think a workable fusion reactor will be the most important technology of the 21st century.

but people say that AI will spit out that fusion reactor, ergo AI investment is prior in the ordo investimendi or whatever it would be called (by an AI)

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#169

Post by JohnKemeny »

hamburgererror wrote: post #138

Until recently everyone was bragging about predicting bitcoin's bubble. To the best of my knowledge there was no huge crash, crypto just got out of fashion in mainstream media. I guess that's what's going to happen with AI.

Almost everyone who has interacted with a blockchain ended up losing money.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#170

Post by [deleted] »

xiphias2 wrote: post #147
donatj wrote: post #123

I feel kind of like a Luddite sometimes but I don't understand why EVERYONE is rushing to use AI? I use a couple different agents to help me code, and ChatGPT has largely replaced Google in my everyday use, but I genuinely don't understand the value proposition of every other companies offerings. I really feel like we're in the same "Get it out first, figure out what it is good for later" bubble we had like 7 years a…

Just you switching away from Google is already justifying 1T infrastructure spend. Just think about how much more effective advertisements are going to be when LLMs start to tell you what to buy based on which advertiser gave the most money to the company.

[deleted]
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