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How the AI Bubble Will Pop

derekthompson.org

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Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#11

Post by aurareturn »

hemloc_io wrote: post #7

The most frustrating thing to me about this most recent rash of biz guy doubting the future of AI articles is the required mention that AI, specifically an LLM based approach to AGI, is important even if the numbers don't make sense today. Why is that the case? There's plenty of people in the field who have made convincing arguments that it's a dead end and fundamentally we'll need to do something else to achieve AGI…

  Where's the business value? Right now it doesn't really exist, adoption is low to nonexistent outside of programming and even in programming it's inconclusive as to how much better/worse it makes programmers.
I have a friend who works at PwC doing M&A. This friend told me she can't work without ChatGPT anymore. PwC has an internal AI chat implementation.

Where does this notion that LLMs have no value outside of programming come from? ChatGPT released data showing that programming is just a tiny fraction of queries people do.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#12

Post by kumarm »

hemloc_io wrote: post #7

The most frustrating thing to me about this most recent rash of biz guy doubting the future of AI articles is the required mention that AI, specifically an LLM based approach to AGI, is important even if the numbers don't make sense today. Why is that the case? There's plenty of people in the field who have made convincing arguments that it's a dead end and fundamentally we'll need to do something else to achieve AGI…

[even in programming it's inconclusive as to how much better/worse it makes programmers.]

Try building something new in claude code (or codex etc) using a programming language you have not used before. Your opinion might change drastically.

Current AI tools may not beat the best programmer, they definitely improves average programmer efficiency.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#13

Post by geerlingguy »

gizajob wrote: post #6
rimeice wrote: post #2

> Some people think artificial intelligence will be the most important technology of the 21st century. I don’t, I think a workable fusion reactor will be the most important technology of the 21st century.

We’ll probably need to innovate one of those to power the immense requirements of AI chatbots.

I think we'll need a few hundred, if spending continues like it has this year.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#14

Post by admissionsguy »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #10

I don't think it'll contract. The people dumping their money into AI think we are at end of days, new order for humanity type point, and they're willing to risk a large part of their fortune to ensure that they remain part of the empowered elite in this new era. It's an all hands on deck thing and only hard diminishing returns that make the AI takeoff story look implausible are going to cause a retrenchment.

So just the “it’s different this time” mentality shared by all bubbles. Some things never change.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#15

Post by piker »

kumarm wrote: post #12
hemloc_io wrote: post #7

The most frustrating thing to me about this most recent rash of biz guy doubting the future of AI articles is the required mention that AI, specifically an LLM based approach to AGI, is important even if the numbers don't make sense today. Why is that the case? There's plenty of people in the field who have made convincing arguments that it's a dead end and fundamentally we'll need to do something else to achieve AGI…

[even in programming it's inconclusive as to how much better/worse it makes programmers.] Try building something new in claude code (or codex etc) using a programming language you have not used before. Your opinion might change drastically. Current AI tools may not beat the best programmer, they definitely improves average programmer efficiency.

> Try building something new in claude code (or codex etc) using a programming language you have not used before. Your opinion might change drastically.

Try changing something old in claude code (or codex etc) using a programming language you have used before. Your opinion might change drastically.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#16

Post by huvarda »

pryelluw wrote: post #9

Article is behind paywall and is simply saying the same things that people have been saying about the post tech crash. Now, what this sort of article tends to miss (and I will never know because it’s paywalled like a jackass) is that these models services are used by everyday people for every day tasks. Doesn’t matter if they’re good or not. It enables them to do less work for the same pay. Don’t focus on the money t…

A handful of the largest companies cyclically investing and buying from each other is propping up the entire economy. Also stuff like Deepseek and other open source models exist. Unless AGI comes from LLMs (it absolutely won't) then its foolish to think there wont be a bubble

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#17

Post by leojfc »

throw0101d wrote: post #3

Perhaps worth remembering that 'over-enthusiasm' for new technologies dates back to (at least) canal-mania: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_Revolutions_and_... * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canal_Mania

Absolutely. Years ago I found this book on the topic really eye-opening:

- https://www.amazon.co.uk/Technological-Revolutions-Financial...

The process of _actually_ benefitting from technological improvements is not a straight line, and often requires some external intervention.

e.g. it’s interesting to note that the rising power of specific groups of workers as a result of industrialisation + unionisation then arguably led to things like the 5-day week and the 8-hour day.

I think if (if!) there’s a positive version of what comes from all this, it’s that the same dynamic might emerge. There’s already lots more WFH of course, and some experiments with 4-day weeks. But a lot of resistance too.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#18

Post by UrineSqueegee »

piker wrote: post #15
kumarm wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[even in programming it's inconclusive as to how much better/worse it makes programmers.] Try building something new in claude code (or codex etc) using a programming language you have not used before. Your opinion might change drastically. Current AI tools may not beat the best programmer, they definitely improves average programmer efficiency.

> Try building something new in claude code (or codex etc) using a programming language you have not used before. Your opinion might change drastically. Try changing something old in claude code (or codex etc) using a programming language you have used before. Your opinion might change drastically.

this is literally how i maintain the code at my current position, if i didn't have copilot+ i would be cooked

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#19

Post by apercu »

hemloc_io wrote: post #7

The most frustrating thing to me about this most recent rash of biz guy doubting the future of AI articles is the required mention that AI, specifically an LLM based approach to AGI, is important even if the numbers don't make sense today. Why is that the case? There's plenty of people in the field who have made convincing arguments that it's a dead end and fundamentally we'll need to do something else to achieve AGI…

"Where's the business value? Right now it doesn't really exist, adoption is low to nonexistent outside of programming and even in programming it's inconclusive as to how much better/worse it makes programmers."

The business model is it is data collection about you on steroids, and that the winning company will eclipse Meta in value.

It's just more ad tech with multipliers, and it will continue to control thought, sway policy and decide elections. Just like social media does today.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#20

Post by viking123 »

hemloc_io wrote: post #7

The most frustrating thing to me about this most recent rash of biz guy doubting the future of AI articles is the required mention that AI, specifically an LLM based approach to AGI, is important even if the numbers don't make sense today. Why is that the case? There's plenty of people in the field who have made convincing arguments that it's a dead end and fundamentally we'll need to do something else to achieve AGI…

I think there is real value, for instance nowadays I just use chatGPT as google replacement, brainstorming, and for coding stuff. It's quite useful and it would be hard to go back to time without this kind of tool. The 20 bucks a month is more than worth it.

Not sure though that do they make enough revenue and what will be the moat if more or less the best models will converge around the same level. For most normies, it might be hard to spot difference between gpt 5 and claude for instance. Okay for Grok the moat is that it doesn't pretend to be a pope and censor everything.

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