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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#161
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean... I am "Tesla Hater" in that I don't like the direction they're proceeding in; but every human being I ever met in real actual life does rolling stops under some conditions. Last time I can confidently state that "I never rolled through a stop at very slow speed" is when I was 17, and only NOW do I realize how much of an annoying bum I was :P. So if a car does a rolling stop through a stop sign when there are…

> Yes it's legal IDK about the US, but in France the speed limit is a target speed; if conditions are good (weather, visibility, traffic) you're supposed to drive at or near maximum speed. It's illegal to drive too slow, and there's a specific fine for this. https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/codes/article_lc/LEGIARTI0000... [in French]

The law that you linked says that drivers aren't allowed to drive at an unreasonably slow speed, and defines that to be (for highways, with good weather, and just on the leftmost lane) 80 km/h.

It doesn't say that the speed limit is a target, or that you're supposed to drive at or near it.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#162
>Although the ages of drivers in Tesla’s crash rate data are unknown, their ages could be estimated from a 2018 demographic survey of 424 Tesla owners (Hardman et al., 2019).

Seriously? you trying to claim your method is more fair using 424 people in 2019, when Tesla has demographics of millions cars across the globe?

My conclusion:

Author is saying it's not fair to compare with some old car. Tesla was one of the first brands to mass adopt this safety features in every Telsa. This is the only brand that include camera, collision warnings in every, even cheapest modification. And they were the first to introduce many of these features. The rest are catching up. Why Tesla can't be proud of that? They give safety to every customer, no matter if it's the cheapest option or $150k+ car. Only volvo invest on par with tesla in testing facilities, in house extended crash tests ets.

Autopilot and similar system is safer compares to any car on the highway with old cruise control because they have features that force you to be focused. They can stop you on a traffic light, they can react faster on animal running across the road etc. And Yes all measures like collision warnings, notifications, makes your driving safe. Yes, you can use it without autopilot, but I as a consumer don't care. If I'm buying a car, fact that this car is much safer compares to 10 years old ford makes me more confident in purchase.

You can debate a lot on how easy is to avoid some of this safety measures. But if you an idiot you can fall asleep in cruise controlled car as well. Tesla will at least try to wake you up. And will stop on a traffic light.

FSD is a good example of an extension of this rational vs emotional thinking. FSD Beta has a very strict focus control. You look not on a road few times you're blocked. You don't hold a wheel few times you blocked. Etc.

So even FSD beta in it's current state is a complete garbage that quite often literally drives you into accident the way they enforce your attention fixes everything.

FSD beta with this limitations has 60k cars on a road. And 0 major incidents that lead to a major injury or death. Not counting few scratched rims and one time driver got off the road because he over reacted on some maneuver.

It's bizarre how much money legacy auto is poring into efforts to make tesla look bad. Before it was infamous data of burning EV's. But if you look at data a single car brand BMW has so 100 times more risk of fire compares to tesla. You don't see paid articles on Times square how dangerous is BMW.

Right now all major brands invest in EV and suddenly all this fire incidents disappear. And they switched to Autopilot and FSD.

Is there a room for improvement yes. Is the car that can stop on a traffic light, after some fixes for a cop's car, notify about potential collision, avoid automatically some collisions safer. Definitely yes. The rest is just hype, speculations and quite often corruption and paid articles.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#163
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans don’t disengage and let the machines handle the situation but machines do it all the time. Do the machines disengage at tricky situations or straight lines?

The statistics are there to read however, and suggest your reasoning is not correct. Case A: Non Tesla Human drives 999 easy miles and 1 hard mile Case B: Autopilot drives 999 easy miles, and human drives 1 hard mile If the effect size of the hard mile is so large that its skewing the statistics, you would expect the Telsa human driver to have a horrendous per mile accident rate relative to the non tesla human driver…

Is this data available anywhere? How do I know that non-autopilot Tesla mile per accident rates aren't horrible?

Tesla publishes their own data for the safety of autopilot, which I presume is based on their own analysis of accident records. Is this same detailed information available to other groups (insurers, NIST, etc)? Or do they just calculate an aggregate "Tesla mile per accident" rate that is a blend of the great autopilot rate and horrible human rate?

I'm not trying to be facetious here. I have no idea if this data is available to any groups other than Tesla themselves. And if so, do they publish those numbers?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#164
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean... I am "Tesla Hater" in that I don't like the direction they're proceeding in; but every human being I ever met in real actual life does rolling stops under some conditions. Last time I can confidently state that "I never rolled through a stop at very slow speed" is when I was 17, and only NOW do I realize how much of an annoying bum I was :P. So if a car does a rolling stop through a stop sign when there are…

When I was a kid and we were living in Vancouver, my mum told me how she did a 'rolling stop' through a stop sign at 4am in the morning with empty streets, and a cop car noticed it and gave her a massive fine. She was in tears because my family wasn't earning much money at the time. For some reason I still remember this story decades later and always come to a full stop at stop signs, that's how I was taught in drivi…

Sounds like a ticket to fight as the cop working at 4am would have a hard time showing up to court.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#165
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a sourse but I could not find it ATM. It’s fairly simple, people don’t disengage and their driving safety is judged over all the miles they drive + all the situations where Autopilot disengages. Tesla Autopilot is judged only by the miles driven without disengagement, which is quite limited actually. You can watch Youtube videos to see at what kind of situations Tesla autopilot gives up. There’s no situatio…

You seem to be missing the point though. If this were significant, then human tesla drivers should be shown as performing much worse than other car drivers, because you're claiming they have a disproportionately large riding time in "tricky roads". A non tesla driver should be doing way better because they get to pad their score with the easy roads the autopilot supposedly gets.

Maybe that’s the case, Tesla data isn’t public. They don’t publish data but conclusions and their conclusions are questionable.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#166

How is it that Tesla (and other companies developing self-driving capabilities) are allowed to deploy their products in the real world? We make people take a test to get a drivers license -- why don't we have requirements for self-driving systems? We require that cars pass routine mechanical inspections -- why isn't the software controlling these cars regulated?

There are requirements in some places, and maybe there should be more.

But on the other hand, even the most pessimistic examination of this data doesn't seem to suggest that these cars are below the "can get a drivers license" threshold.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#167

How is it that Tesla (and other companies developing self-driving capabilities) are allowed to deploy their products in the real world? We make people take a test to get a drivers license -- why don't we have requirements for self-driving systems? We require that cars pass routine mechanical inspections -- why isn't the software controlling these cars regulated?

Regulators are asleep at the wheel.

Its kinda amazing to see the cognitive dissonance that people have when it comes to "regulators".

When these regulators get swayed by the car industry into stupid stuff like 25 year import rule, or how they still keep speed limits around which have nothing to do with safety as they are based on outdated MPG savings initiative and end up disproportionally affecting lower income people, they rightfully are criticized.

However, as soon as some manufacturer pops up and does something that the public doesn't like, even for silly reasons like not protecting people from themselves, people immediately jump to wanting the "regulators" to do something about it. Kinda makes it easy to see who has irrational hate for Tesla/Musk versus those who actually care about technology.

The correct thing for the "regulators" to do is to make it mandatory that every car has the same set of cameras and instruments that Tesla cars do, and that data is streamed to a publicly funded data warehouse where its open source and available for anyone to use.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#168
post #12

How about the predominately male ownership of teslas causing higher accident rates. I see the paper adjusts for age and road type but missing gender is a pretty big slip-up? I didn't read the paper fully but grepped for "gender" and "sex" and couldn't find anything.

Don't forget to adjust for the 50% greater distance driven by men [1]. In reality, per mile drive, the difference in genders is negligible and maybe even counter to what most people believe. Of course though, men will pay more in insurance because driving is inherently dangerous and driving that much more frequently is problematic. [1] - https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm

Men are also more likely to drive drunk, under the influence and are more likely to buy a car with more than 250hp. There's a _lot_ of confounding variables when examining crashes.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Student drivers (with an instructor in the car, and secondary controls) have very few accidents, if any, not because of their safety record but because every mistake is saved by the instructor. A car can be considered as driving "safer than a human" when it can match the average human in any conditions the average human drives. Everything else is just squinting at the data and choosing an interpretation that fits you…

So as a thought experiment, if Autopilot + Human intervention reduced the rate of accidents by 50% vs. just humans after normalization; can we consider autopilot to be adding value?

Of course the Autopilot adds value, all such driver assists are there to add value and help the driver on any car. I just don't think Autopilot can drive, let alone drive safer than a human. There's a difference between "helping a human drive safer" and "driving safer than a human". This is a confusion many people make when reading these stats, to Tesla's benefit.

Also the oldest Tesla with AP is less than 10 years old (with an average of 3-4 years given the sales trends). The average age of cars on the street in the US is over 12 years old. An accident statistic that looks at reasonably new, premium cars against everything else won't paint the correct picture.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#170
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes it's legal IDK about the US, but in France the speed limit is a target speed; if conditions are good (weather, visibility, traffic) you're supposed to drive at or near maximum speed. It's illegal to drive too slow, and there's a specific fine for this. https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/codes/article_lc/LEGIARTI0000... [in French]

The law that you linked says that drivers aren't allowed to drive at an unreasonably slow speed, and defines that to be (for highways, with good weather, and just on the leftmost lane) 80 km/h. It doesn't say that the speed limit is a target, or that you're supposed to drive at or near it.

Yes, but it's how we're taught at driving school. I think it's written down somewhere but can't find it at the moment, so the article I linked to is the closest I could find.
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