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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#61

Post by spywaregorilla »

I find this headline to be pretty misleading.

* It doesn't find anything to suggest Autopilot is less safe than claimed. It finds reasons to believe Autopilot's improvement on safety relative to humans is less than claimed

* Under both the road adjusted model; and the road+age adjusted model, Autopilot outperforms the average driver on average. Not by much, but its there.

* Everyone here seems to be assuming that the takeaway is that Autopilot is less safe than humans, but there's no evidence for that. If the numbers here are to be believed, I would take it as a good sign for tesla, and by definition an advantage to people who are otherwise poor drivers?

* Question: Why do crashes per million miles have such large swings in the baseline? It's weird that it varies so heavily by quarter without any obvious seasonal patterns to me.

edit: mildly annoyed at getting downvoted for seeming to be the only person here noting that the blue line is on average below the red line on every chart shown.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#62

Post by irthomasthomas »

How is this still front page? Somebody sleeping?

In case you missed them, there have been 5 tesla stories nuked from the front page today:

  'Self driving' Tesla fails miserably on the streets of South Boston
30 points 22 comments

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30173566

  Tesla Australia admits its sales figures were wrong
39 points 14 comments

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30176635

  Tesla drivers report a surge in ‘phantom braking’
42 points 79 comments

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30179681

  Self-driving Tesla does 'the craziest things you can imagine'
96 points 172 comments

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30178168

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#63

Post by gretch »

ProAm wrote: post #28
kadoban wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They should be forced to let that happen. It's crucial for public safety.

Public knowledge of safety affects stock price and brand recognition. Will never happen.

This is an arrogant amount of speculation based on nothing more than personal intuition.

In fact, there are plenty of examples where public knowledge of safety is published by mandate of the government. Here is an example of FAA flight data and you can see details about incidents across airlines: https://www.faa.gov/data_research/accident_incident/

I'm not going to spend time digging it up, but I'm pretty sure there are just as many sources of data on other important things such as pharmaceuticals e.g. the covid vaccine.

So no, just because 'stock price go down' doesn't mean a thing will never happen

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#64

Post by yumraj »

Xylakant wrote: post #31
paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

I think it's fair to compare to the average driver. You may be not average by virtue of not being a teenager and not driving drunk, but you're not magically immune to being run over or crashed into by one of those. So even if a hypothetical FSD capable car would not drive one yota better than you do, it cwould still make you safer by virtue of making the surrounding environment safer.

Given what I’ve been hearing/reading about autopilot I’m more worried about being hit by one of them than a human driver.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#65

Post by [deleted] »

paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

[deleted]

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#66

Post by user123abc »

gnicholas wrote: post #23
yrral wrote: post #12

How about the predominately male ownership of teslas causing higher accident rates. I see the paper adjusts for age and road type but missing gender is a pretty big slip-up? I didn't read the paper fully but grepped for "gender" and "sex" and couldn't find anything.

Good question! According to one study in LA, [1] men cause 60% of accidents. I do wonder, however, the extent to which this gap fades with age. Given that most Tesla owners are not super young, it might not make as much of a difference as the 60% number (assuming it is nationally representative) would indicate. 1: https://xtown.la/2019/12/12/women-drivers-maybe-we-need-more...

Men also drive 63% more miles than women. https://www.carinsurance.com/Articles/average-miles-driven-p...

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#67

Post by yumraj »

sandworm101 wrote: post #20
jacquesm wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just thought it was odd that the company was playing quite so fast and loose with their safety claims. That's because it's marketing, not science.

And because it's Tesla, not Honda. Every car company does marketing. Few make over-the-top safety claims about their products. This is the company that decided to have its cars not stop at stop signs. Normal rules don't apply to Tesla. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60230072 "In recall documents, the electric vehicle maker notes that if certain conditions are met, the "rolling stop" feature is designed to allow…

> And because it's Tesla, not Honda.

And because it’s Elon Musk, not some ethical CEO

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#68

Post by stjohnswarts »

paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

So basically everyone in a car? :)

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#69

Post by mrtksn »

paxys wrote: post #22

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry. The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car…

If I remember correctly, they also cover the easy part of the road and make the human take over at tricky situations.

So at the end of the day, you have spotless records for the autopilot that was driving many many miles on the straight line and humans having accidents at short intersections or construction sites. This translates into very favorable numbers for autopilot when presented as accidents per miles driven.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#70

Post by caditinpiscinam »

How is it that Tesla (and other companies developing self-driving capabilities) are allowed to deploy their products in the real world? We make people take a test to get a drivers license -- why don't we have requirements for self-driving systems? We require that cars pass routine mechanical inspections -- why isn't the software controlling these cars regulated?
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