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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#151

Post by bambax »

NikolaNovak wrote: post #49
sandworm101 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And because it's Tesla, not Honda. Every car company does marketing. Few make over-the-top safety claims about their products. This is the company that decided to have its cars not stop at stop signs. Normal rules don't apply to Tesla. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60230072 "In recall documents, the electric vehicle maker notes that if certain conditions are met, the "rolling stop" feature is designed to allow…

I mean... I am "Tesla Hater" in that I don't like the direction they're proceeding in; but every human being I ever met in real actual life does rolling stops under some conditions. Last time I can confidently state that "I never rolled through a stop at very slow speed" is when I was 17, and only NOW do I realize how much of an annoying bum I was :P. So if a car does a rolling stop through a stop sign when there are…

> Yes it's legal

IDK about the US, but in France the speed limit is a target speed; if conditions are good (weather, visibility, traffic) you're supposed to drive at or near maximum speed. It's illegal to drive too slow, and there's a specific fine for this.

https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/codes/article_lc/LEGIARTI0000... [in French]

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#152

Post by [deleted] »

gnicholas wrote: post #2

Underlying study is here. [1] Full disclosure, I co-wrote the piece for The Daily Beast [2] that originally suggested that Tesla's methodology was seriously flawed. I am not a Tesla-hater though — I just thought it was odd that the company was playing quite so fast and loose with their safety claims. 1: https://engrxiv.org/preprint/view/1973/3986 2: https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-tesla-and-elon-musk-exagge...

[deleted]

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#153

Post by mrtksn »

jcranberry wrote: post #96
spywaregorilla wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it were the case that autopilot was benefiting from dumping all of the difficult parts on the humans, you would expect to see much higher than average rates of accidents per mile on the human driven parts, because they're only getting the hard parts. This tends not to be true, so I'm doubting it's a real effect.

Could you provide a source? That sounds fairly interesting.

There was a sourse but I could not find it ATM. It’s fairly simple, people don’t disengage and their driving safety is judged over all the miles they drive + all the situations where Autopilot disengages.

Tesla Autopilot is judged only by the miles driven without disengagement, which is quite limited actually. You can watch Youtube videos to see at what kind of situations Tesla autopilot gives up.

There’s no situation where the Autopilot takes over from the human saying “That’s a tricky road, let me handle it”.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#154

Post by Dylan16807 »

buran77 wrote: post #141
spywaregorilla wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The statistics are there to read however, and suggest your reasoning is not correct. Case A: Non Tesla Human drives 999 easy miles and 1 hard mile Case B: Autopilot drives 999 easy miles, and human drives 1 hard mile If the effect size of the hard mile is so large that its skewing the statistics, you would expect the Telsa human driver to have a horrendous per mile accident rate relative to the non tesla human driver…

Student drivers (with an instructor in the car, and secondary controls) have very few accidents, if any, not because of their safety record but because every mistake is saved by the instructor. A car can be considered as driving "safer than a human" when it can match the average human in any conditions the average human drives. Everything else is just squinting at the data and choosing an interpretation that fits you…

If that means the supervision actually works, then it doesn't sound like there's a problem?

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#156

Post by LorenPechtel »

TedDoesntTalk wrote: post #75
Natsu wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The study says this: > An estimated 15% of injury crashes and 24% of property damage-only crashes are never reported to police (M. Davis and Company, Inc., 2015), while9% of injury crashes and 24% of property damage-only crashes are reported but not logged (Blincoe et al., 2015). Even with robust data, establishing the statistical significance of automated vehicle safety can be expensive. Kalra and Paddock (2016)demo…

Why would injury crashes go unreported?

Police responding to the actual crash scene, useful. Police report filed after the fact, only if there's some need for said report. And not all injuries are immediately apparent. 3 1/2 years ago I got a first-person view of what it would be like to be on the receiving end of a PIT maneuver courtesy of a woman who didn't look adequately. (Yes, when you looked left the road was empty--I saw that also and turned into that empty spot the block before you!) At the time the only injury I was aware of was a very minor scrape, not even worthy of a bandaid. Later I discovered a pulled muscle--it only hurt when I did certain things.

I also used to know a woman who thought it was nothing more than a fender-bender, went to the doc a couple of days later because her neck was bothering her. Doc sent her straight to the hospital--incomplete cervical fracture, one wrong move and she could have dropped dead.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#157

Post by mdoms »

JoshTko wrote: post #77
nja wrote: post #44

I was just watching this video of a Tesla trying and miserably failing to drive itself through the streets of Boston: https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1488555256162172928 A number of these near-crashes seem to be pretty odd errors (a couple of times it just decided to drive on the wrong side of the street?) -- albeit ones that one _could_ see drivers unfamiliar with the area making. If a human driver started dri…

To be fair Boston city roads are like horse carriage routes that were converted to streets and will probably one of the last places FSD optimizes for.

If FSD is expected to perform poorly on those roads then it shouldn't be available on said roads and it certainly shouldn't be legal to use it there.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#158

Post by spywaregorilla »

mrtksn wrote: post #153
jcranberry wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you provide a source? That sounds fairly interesting.

There was a sourse but I could not find it ATM. It’s fairly simple, people don’t disengage and their driving safety is judged over all the miles they drive + all the situations where Autopilot disengages. Tesla Autopilot is judged only by the miles driven without disengagement, which is quite limited actually. You can watch Youtube videos to see at what kind of situations Tesla autopilot gives up. There’s no situatio…

You seem to be missing the point though. If this were significant, then human tesla drivers should be shown as performing much worse than other car drivers, because you're claiming they have a disproportionately large riding time in "tricky roads".

A non tesla driver should be doing way better because they get to pad their score with the easy roads the autopilot supposedly gets.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#159

Post by petilon »

croes wrote: post #130

I doubt that full self driving is possible in the near future without changes to the cars and the infrastructure to help the autonomous systems.

It is available today in a limited area: https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/03/cruise-launches-driverless...

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#160

Post by thomaskcr »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #134
spywaregorilla wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's marginally better

Right! A few years ago, claiming that a robot car would drive as safely as a human driver would have been an incredible claim. Just saying.

It would have been, Musk didn't think so and felt the need to embellish/exaggerate - his habit of exaggerating/lying I think is more on trial than the actual Tesla vehicles here.
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