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Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

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Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#161

Post by ignifero »

jamesbkel wrote: post #84
ignifero wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without trying to be condescending, no. I am not a golf fan, and I already know that practice makes perfect. If I were to devote 10000 hours of my life in something it would be more "cerebral" than a motor skill/sport. Just my point of view. For example: if this guy decided to devote 10000 hours to make a machine that would connect and download golf into his brain, now that would be cool.

Certainly practice approches perfect. The interesting part here is to quantify the practice to perfection radio in the context of the well known 10,000hr rule. Golf works well for this since it's fairly objective at the individual level. I'm not interested in golf, but I found it interesting to read through the article and see I thought his use of golf as a skill had some merit, but also where I think he's a bit off.…

See i think his choice of golf (or most sports where you rely mostly on repetitive physical training) is a bad one. It's like a brute force attack - effective, but not much of an achievement.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#162

Post by epo »

jasonwilk wrote: post #28

I have been playing golf since I was 6 years old (I am now 25, running a YC company and whiteyboard). I've played competitively, going all over the country and even got a full scholarship to a NCAA Division 1 university for the sport. I can honestly say that this guy does not stand a chance, and here is why. 1. Golf, especially when it comes to playing professionally, is more of a mental sport than physical (both str…

All of this may be true, 6 years is a long time and if he takes your guidance he should plan to spend time with a sports psychologist early on and get spectated match practice as early as feasible (say after 4 years).

It's doable, very, very unlikely I grant you, but it's doable.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#163

Post by chernevik »

nl wrote: post #128
chernevik wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure it will work. I expect golf rewards basic aptitudes like co-ordination, strength and stamina, etc., and that pros' endowments on these are four or five standard deviations from the population norm. They were likely selected for those endowments prior to most of their practice. Where is Dan on that curve? But I suppose how much these endowments matter, or whether work can enhance them, is a rough part of…

I'm not sure it will work. I expect golf rewards basic aptitudes like co-ordination, strength and stamina, etc., and that pros' endowments on these are four or five standard deviations from the population norm. In golf (unlike most pro sports) it isn't immediately obvious that this is the case. Sure, most golfers are in shape, but few aerobically fitter than a recreational 10K runner, and the variation in max drive l…

We might, on close examination, find that pro golfers have extraordinary endowments on attributes subtler than sheer speed or strength. Stuff like depth perception, coordination of full-body motions, balance, maybe some cognitive attributes like executive control of focus, etc.

As others have noted, the effort is in part a test of people's ability to enhance these endowments. I _think_ most people putting in 10,000 hours got feedback that their basic endowments give them some advantage.

I suspect that something like that will operate here. If at some point Dan hits diminishing returns, and can't punch through by varying his approach and allowing for natural human slumps, that may be a signal that he lacks the physical tools to go all the way. Even then that isn't a waste of time, he'll have learned a lot about focus, and about detecting where his natural advantages do lie. That has to inform the search for his real calling.

One way or the other, it'll be interesting.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#165

Post by diegob »

oldstrangers wrote: post #134
chops wrote: post #12

This reminds me of a blog I read a few years ago called "Scratch to Scratch". The point of the exercise was to go from being an ultrabeginner golfer to a par golfer in a year of serious practice and training. Here's the about page from his blog: http://breakparblueprint.com/blog/about-2/ That is apparently, his new blog migrated from the original, found here: http://scratchtoscratch.wordpress.com/ The big thing was t…

You can also count on this "Dan Plan" becoming a book. Ultimately, that's the entire point of this project anyways. Not to be a golf champion, but to sell a lot of books.

I thought the entire point was to become a PGA golfer ...

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#166

Post by cygwin98 »

ebiester wrote: post #83

I would believe it were he 20. However, most golfers start fading in their thirties, having lost the extra power that their bodies could provide when younger. While I don't doubt that he will be an excellent golfer (thus "proving" that 10,000 hours of dedicated practice will indeed make you great) I certainly doubt he will be a PGA golfer. That said, he might have a chance for a lesser tour. And that, for sure, will…

I believe your comment is spot on. The debates here is basically about what "professional level" careful training and hard work can bring this guy up to. The "nay-sayers" (including myself) agree on that he might become much more proficient than amateur golf players, maybe even "have a chance for a lesser tour" (as you put it), but he won't be able to make it into the top level games such as PGA tour tournaments. This is the case for almost all competitive sports.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#167

Post by GreenNight »

dfan wrote: post #92
axefrog wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds reasonable, but what about the fact that there are a great many more pursuits in life that one might enjoy, but simply hasn't had enough time to investigate, or simply has not yet been exposed to sufficiently to recognise the enjoyment that comes from pursuing it?

Well, there is a pretty large difference between enjoying something and dedicating a giant chunk of your life to it. But in any case, I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying why it's unlikely.

Sometimes you discover things you love "late" in your life.

I always have loved dancing, but only did that in discos and partying, taking no classes. Then I started going to some classes (bollywood dancing) in 2008. That wasn't it yet.

September 2009 I started doing lindy hop, I love it. If I could devote even more time to it I would, but it's hard to do with a full-time job that pays for the dancing and some family debt. I was 34 then, and some time later I started keeping an approximate account of how much have I done, classes and social dancing, to have an idea of how much it would take to get to the 10k hours to be really good(yeah, I heard of it too).

Now I have about around 694 hours of lindy-related dances (287 classes, 309 social, 91 solo charleston and some tap, blues to the side) and I'm starting to be good enough to recognise most of my failings without help.

It's not as impressive as what he does, but it's about 11 hours of dancing a week this year, while keeping a full-time job, being a bit sleep-deprived because of night parties, and trying to live as frugal as I can in order to have money for classes, international workshops and parties almost every day of the week.

Yeah, this means that if this (10k hours) is true I'd need a bit more than 20 years to get to be exceptional. Well, at least I will get good at this thing I love.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#168

Post by alecco »

nl wrote: post #132
alecco wrote: post #14

I'm not fond of all these attention grabbing hotshots. Gladwell's theory is completely bogus. A guy in UK tried to do that for Marathon and aimed to become an olympian. He did a lot of media and called his upcoming documentary "The Road to Beijing". He didn't make it, and wasn't even close (from what I remember it was 2:40 or 2:45). Then he went to Ethiopia and picked a protege. His protege was fast but didn't win a…

A 2:40 time isn't terrible - even at the Olympic level: http://www.iaaf.org/oly08/results/eventCode=3659/bydisciplin... (Of course, most of these guys had to do better than 2:40 to qualify, but still..)

The Beijing 2008 marathon was run in extreme heat and humidity. The times were pushed back severely and some elite runners refused to participate. The last one to finish was 2:41 and the rest were DNF'd.

Actually, I was too generous. He only did 3h10.

From forum comments (not mine):

  I have to say after being an early supporter of this project I
  totally lost interest. I initially felt inspired by Vero's enthusiasm
  and drive and a feeling that "anybody could do it" in an American
  dream kind of way. Not sure if it was injury, but why didn't he
  run Amsterdam?

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#169

Post by fredleblanc »

jhowell wrote: post #115

Probably want to start with a few amateur tournaments like club championships, city championships and state championships before moving onto national championships (US Public Links, US Amateur, etc.) If you can't beat the 13 year olds at these tournaments who are breaking par, you probably aren't going to do very well against the adults who use to win those tournaments as kids. The next argument I hear from a lot of…

Agreed, just think of the number of "golf pros" out there that can't even make the tour. Every course has at least one, and these days most driving ranges have them. Unless he discovers that he happens to have some hidden raw talent, his chances are slim-to-none.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#170

Post by xiaoma »

nimblegorilla wrote: post #105
dfan wrote: post #15

To me there's a sort of a Bayesian logic working against any hypothetical "adult novice puts in 10,000 hours of work and becomes a pro" story, which is that anyone who has the willpower and passion to put in that much work probably has already. If you are so excited about a sport/instrument/game/hobby that you're willing to put 10,000 hours into it starting from scratch, why weren't you working on it before? I recent…

I agree slightly with your point, but I most adults have hundreds hours of time spent doing new activities that they didn't get to do as a child. So if someone "discovers" painting in their 20s or 30s maybe it is feasible to be a great painter 10 years later.

Grandma Moses didn't start painting until her late 70's and she was successful enough to have a New York holiday in her honor on her 100th birthday.
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