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Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

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Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#91

Post by tygorius »

jasonwilk wrote: post #28

I have been playing golf since I was 6 years old (I am now 25, running a YC company and whiteyboard). I've played competitively, going all over the country and even got a full scholarship to a NCAA Division 1 university for the sport. I can honestly say that this guy does not stand a chance, and here is why. 1. Golf, especially when it comes to playing professionally, is more of a mental sport than physical (both str…

This brings to mind Arthur C. Clarke's first law[1].

There's a difference between making the case that someone can do something because you have experience in doing it and making the case that someone can't because you haven't. There are presumably quite a few people who've tried an approach similar to yours, but there aren't that many who have tried Dan's approach... yet.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke%27s_three_laws

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#92

Post by dfan »

axefrog wrote: post #86
dfan wrote: post #15

To me there's a sort of a Bayesian logic working against any hypothetical "adult novice puts in 10,000 hours of work and becomes a pro" story, which is that anyone who has the willpower and passion to put in that much work probably has already. If you are so excited about a sport/instrument/game/hobby that you're willing to put 10,000 hours into it starting from scratch, why weren't you working on it before? I recent…

Sounds reasonable, but what about the fact that there are a great many more pursuits in life that one might enjoy, but simply hasn't had enough time to investigate, or simply has not yet been exposed to sufficiently to recognise the enjoyment that comes from pursuing it?

Well, there is a pretty large difference between enjoying something and dedicating a giant chunk of your life to it. But in any case, I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm saying why it's unlikely.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#93

Post by ikono »

It's far more reasonable to change this to a challenge to become a scratch golfer or something similar. I don't think Gladwell meant that anyone could become one of the best in the world at anything with 10,000 hours of work. Such a statement is somewhat insulting to those that have devoted their life to their craft. Instead, that with 10,000 hours you could become very good at anything. Enough so that you could be considered very skilled/knowledgable in that craft/field.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#94

Post by chernevik »

jasonwilk wrote: post #28

I have been playing golf since I was 6 years old (I am now 25, running a YC company and whiteyboard). I've played competitively, going all over the country and even got a full scholarship to a NCAA Division 1 university for the sport. I can honestly say that this guy does not stand a chance, and here is why. 1. Golf, especially when it comes to playing professionally, is more of a mental sport than physical (both str…

I'm not sure it will work. I expect golf rewards basic aptitudes like co-ordination, strength and stamina, etc., and that pros' endowments on these are four or five standard deviations from the population norm. They were likely selected for those endowments prior to most of their practice. Where is Dan on that curve? But I suppose how much these endowments matter, or whether work can enhance them, is a rough part of this experiment.

I am sure that I like his approach a damn sight better than yours. The guy is _working_. He'll have to beat all sorts of inner demons to get to 10,000 hours. He'll end up knowing a lot about learning, and himself, when he's done. That's my kind of guy.

Meanhwile, you are lobbing poorly thought-out downerisms. "get great at playing the course"? Gee, do you think maybe he'll budget some of his 10k for that? or that the ability to hit his shot straight _every_single_time_ might help? or that all those hours will do something for his mental chops? Coding "has structured guidelines for success"? None of this is intelligent, never mind constructive.

You're only 25, you were clearly a good athlete, you made YC, congratulations. No doubt worked your ass off up to this point. Well, some people have to grind it out even harder than you've had to. If you can't spare the time to think through helpful commentary, respect their dedication and keep your mouth shut.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#95

Post by fanboy123 »

jasonwilk wrote: post #28

I have been playing golf since I was 6 years old (I am now 25, running a YC company and whiteyboard). I've played competitively, going all over the country and even got a full scholarship to a NCAA Division 1 university for the sport. I can honestly say that this guy does not stand a chance, and here is why. 1. Golf, especially when it comes to playing professionally, is more of a mental sport than physical (both str…

I had a similar thought with regards to high stakes gambling (pool, poker, golf, backgammon and prop trading). When you learn to do any of these one has to learn how to deal with making decisions under time and money pressure. Everybody that has ever played a sport competitively has made mistakes under duress that are difficult to explain later because your mind shuts off during that period. This is probably a limbic response to stress - your first instinct under danger is to switch to flight/fight and may not be using the framework that 10k hours (or however much time spent) built. Everyone can get better at moderating their response to this but I suspect that some people are naturally better suited at shrugging off the blaze of autonomic responses and still be able to focus on the task at hand properly. The people who attempt to put in 10k and fail because they can't handle pressure aren't accounted for. It makes for a nice book but saying 10k hours is all it took Michael Jordan or Gretzky or Mozart to hit their "master level" ignores this survivorship bias.

I think Jason has a good point that hitting a golf ball and being able to function under pressure are two very very different abilities and professional golf is most likely selecting for both abilities.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#96

Post by SlipperySlope »

bayleo wrote: post #9
[deleted] wrote: post #2

[deleted]

Yeah, he definitely optimized on his choice of sport by selecting one of the few where the advantages of age and genetics are minimized.

Actually there are a number of sports in which are age and genetics are far less important than golf, e.g. the Olympic sports of curling, bob sled racing, archery, equestrian, target shooting and sailing.

Anyone's reflexes will decline with age, so Dan's choice is of golf is a good one with respect to his slower reflexes as a potential golf pro in his late 30s, as compared to the reflexes of 20 year old potential golf pros, are not such a big deal.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#97

Post by enjo »

roel_v wrote: post #75
Quarrelsome wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But do you not think it possible that your perspective (as a golfer from a young age) is skewing the reality of your statement? I specifically state this because you talk in such absolutes. One's brain will typically dismiss a "n00b" trying to become good at something that one is good at without the experience that one has. I believe this is possible because if they do succeed it will invalidate ones own experience w…

Exactly - look at TV shows like MTV's 'Made' and similar, where people 'focus' (in the case of 'Made', not even very hard) and get to a respectable level, just by having a coach and putting in some time. There are other TV shows where people actually take 10 weeks or so to do something full time - things that the 'pros' say of that it's so hard to learn (like dancing, or hairdressing, or whatever). They usually compe…

That made me think of a show that was on the golf channel where they tried to make Charles Barkley into a respectable golfer.

Despite a highly competent coach and many hours of practice, it ended badly IIRC.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#98

Post by tokenadult »

jaredmck wrote: post #79

The thing about golf is that practicing six hours doesn't mean you got six hours of practice- you need to play rounds, which take several hours but are only really ~30 minutes of "golf practice" at most...golf is interesting because the athletic prerequisites are minimal compared to most other sports, but this doesn't mean that 10,000 hours is sufficient. I don't doubt that he'll be near-pro level after the 10,000 ho…

The claim of the mainstream scholarly development of expertise literature

http://www.psy.fsu.edu/faculty/ericsson/ericsson.exp.perf.ht...

and especially the most classic paper in the literature

http://projects.ict.usc.edu/itw/gel/EricssonDeliberatePracti...

is not that 10,000 hours is enough, but rather that deliberate practice is strictly necessary for expertise, and that 10,000 hours (in round figures) is also necessary to achieve what can properly be called expertise in any adult domain of performance. K. Anders Ericsson, the leading researcher in this field, distinguishes "playful engagement" from "deliberate practice" and distinguishes being at the journeyman level of performance from the rarer case of being at the expert level of performance.

What needs more testing is whether 10,000 hours of deliberate practice is not only necessary but also sufficient. Many critiques of Ericsson's findings evoke an ill-defined latent quality labeled "talent" to make the claim that many members of the general public would fail to achieve expertise even if they engaged in 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. But such a showing would not be a direct refutation of Ericsson's claim. Rather, it would be necessary to show that someone who is properly called an expert lacked opportunity to engage in lengthy deliberate practice. Mozart didn't write any music composition that musicologists call a "masterpiece" until he had had ten years (and at least 10,000 hours) of intensive study of music guided by his father, who was an author of innovative books on music instruction and a continual guide to young Wolfgang's musical development.

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#99

Post by ikono »

damoncali wrote: post #59
jasonwilk wrote: post #28

I have been playing golf since I was 6 years old (I am now 25, running a YC company and whiteyboard). I've played competitively, going all over the country and even got a full scholarship to a NCAA Division 1 university for the sport. I can honestly say that this guy does not stand a chance, and here is why. 1. Golf, especially when it comes to playing professionally, is more of a mental sport than physical (both str…

10,000 hours is an awful lot of golf - 20 hours a week for 10 years. Seems to match up with your estimates pretty well.

Not all hours are equal, it's pretty close to impossible to be as productive while you're tired as when you're well rested. Not to mention that the person you're quoting is not a professional golfer. Tiger is probably closer to 100,000 hours than he is to 10,000...

Re: Can a complete novice become a golf pro with 10,000 hours of practice?

#100

Post by scott_s »

lasonrisa wrote: post #90
scott_s wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, and it's also unlikely that most people would even stumble upon this approach. Most people pursue golf because they enjoy it, on some level. I assume that would involve actually playing full games of golf pretty early on. Although, now that I think about it, his approach is how we teach many academic subjects. A freshmen physics major often has no idea what it looks like to be a practicing physicist, much in…

It is how we teach traditional martial arts too. You do a lot of kata repetitions when you learn Karate.

But it's not how Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu is usually taught. Yeah, people may not do any live rolling their first few classes, but they usually get to it after several. While people are often encouraged to focus on one aspect of their game, free live rolling is there from the beginning.
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