Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's a massive "if".
Totally, that's the entire conjecture of this bot. My point is just that the odds of the underlying events are irrelevant, what matters is if they're matched with the betting price
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Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
151–160 of 298 posts
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#152Someone needs to make a market on whether or not this is profitable
What happens when the bot places a huge bet on "No" in this market?
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#153Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've backtested this kind of strategy, and it had a good return (like 100% APR), but then I realized it was cheating by knowing when things are going to resolve. Often times it's not clear. Your return depends a lot on how quickly you can get your money out. I never got around to trying a strat that doesn't know the resolution time, which actually has to be manual cause it takes some judgement to pick things that you…
> One loss sets you back 10-20 wins. didn't look at the numbers, but this one sentence reminds me of selling options for 'passive income' (don't do that)
LTCM doing that was an early example of "too big to fail". In the late 90s.
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#154Earlier quoted context omitted.
This all really depends on the efficiency of the market. I think these prediction markets would claim that is their goal, but even Wall Street isn't perfectly efficient. I would also guess that sports betting sites like DraftKings or FanDuel would be even less efficient and less likely to be swayed by a popular GitHub repo. Once again, it goes back to the share of the market that is participating for entertainment pu…
> I would also guess that sports betting sites like DraftKings or FanDuel would be even less efficient Your strategy doesn't work on sportbooks to begin with, because bookmakers don't move the odds with the action. That is, there is no such phenomenon as "the over is exciting therefore overpriced". Bookmakers price purely based on facts and statistics. Their pricing isn't affected by excitement nor by how many people…
>Bookmakers price purely based on facts and statistics. Their pricing isn't affected by excitement nor by how many people are betting a certain way.
If this were true, lines would never move unless there was breaking news, but we see lines move all the time without there being any material change to those "facts and statistics".
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#155Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data
For the uninitiated, I believe the meme comes from Reddit, where there is one criticism subreddit, r/ThatHappened where people accuse other Redditors of making up stories of events that never actually happened, and then a meta-criticism subreddit, r/Nothingeverhapens, where people make fun of r/ThatHappened as conspiracy theorists who think everything posted online is fake. Hard to tell how much of each subreddit is…
It comes from 4chan, like all decent memes
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#156Earlier quoted context omitted.
Polymarket has been live in the US since the beginning of the year. There is a queue but it’s absolutely live. And before that you could still use it so long as you did not use a VPN.
Strange. The current terms state: > Restricted Jurisdictions. You acknowledge and agree that you are not permitted to access, use or trade with the Contracts on the Platform if you are residing in, a citizen of, organized in or located in the following jurisdictions (collectively, the “Restricted Jurisdictions”): Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Ontario, Poland, Quebec, Russia, Singapore,…
Maybe you’re not using the US entry path.
But also it’s not illegal for a US citizen even before it was simply not legal for them to do business with US citizens because of lack of kyc
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#157Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I would also guess that sports betting sites like DraftKings or FanDuel would be even less efficient Your strategy doesn't work on sportbooks to begin with, because bookmakers don't move the odds with the action. That is, there is no such phenomenon as "the over is exciting therefore overpriced". Bookmakers price purely based on facts and statistics. Their pricing isn't affected by excitement nor by how many people…
>Bookmakers price purely based on facts and statistics. Their pricing isn't affected by excitement nor by how many people are betting a certain way. If this were true, lines would never move unless there was breaking news, but we see lines move all the time without there being any material change to those "facts and statistics".
I think the distinction is that sports betting companies are basically casinos, need to guard their edge, and although they will tolerate some moving of lines, they will kick out players who consistently eat their edge, and will rig the lines at a place where they can still profit.
Different from a prediction market like Polymarket or Kalshi whose income probably comes mostly from transaction fees rather than house edge. Otherwise these platforms wouldn't welcome bots so much. Bots => efficient pricing + transaction volume => profit for them
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#158The idea was kind of amusing until I went to the GitHub page and was greeted with a Chudjak [1].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Crusius#In_popular_cul...
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#159Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.
> I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents. Behavioral economics has already answered the question of whether humans are, on average, perfectly rational economic actors. They are not. To the contrary, there is substantial evidence indicating a meaningful number of humans will mis-estimate the likelihood of uncommon future events.
It doesn't matter if a vast majority of people are not rational economic actors. It only takes 1 rational actor with enough capital to take the other side of all the bad bets, and the market will be priced correctly even if the other 99 people are irrational.
Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
#160The contrarian bet is fun but I wonder how it actually holds up. Prediction markets do tend to overprice dramatic outcomes, so "always bet no" isn't as dumb as it sounds. Would love to see real P&L over a few months, not just the thesis.
I've backtested this kind of strategy, and it had a good return (like 100% APR), but then I realized it was cheating by knowing when things are going to resolve. Often times it's not clear. Your return depends a lot on how quickly you can get your money out. I never got around to trying a strat that doesn't know the resolution time, which actually has to be manual cause it takes some judgement to pick things that you…
I assume all the 'no' bets have to have an explicit end date, otherwise the 'no' bet could never win? The time horizon is never unknown on these bets.