121–130 of 298 posts
https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254 They admit no returns. But it does seem like a fun project and nowhere does it say anything about returns or profits so not scammy imo just funny meme backed code
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> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.
71 cents*, the bookie gets a cut either way it goes.
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Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data
> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.
Behavioral economics has already answered the question of whether humans are, on average, perfectly rational economic actors. They are not.
To the contrary, there is substantial evidence indicating a meaningful number of humans will mis-estimate the likelihood of uncommon future events.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data
Does the existence of that knowledge make a slight bias lowering the odd on no? I could fork this and with a 1 line change earn dozens of dollars as long as I don't tell anyone what that secret change is.
Already priced in.
The author also noted: > yes this has to buy below 0.73 long term, the bot has a configurable ceiling set at 0.65 and checks for new markets buying closer to .5 https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043685362812461436
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.
> I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents. Behavioral economics has already answered the question of whether humans are, on average, perfectly rational economic actors. They are not. To the contrary, there is substantial evidence indicating a meaningful number of humans will mis-estimate the likelihood of uncommon future events.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.
> I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents. Behavioral economics has already answered the question of whether humans are, on average, perfectly rational economic actors. They are not. To the contrary, there is substantial evidence indicating a meaningful number of humans will mis-estimate the likelihood of uncommon future events.
The alternative would be that there's a bunch of free money sitting there waiting for someone to decide to pick it up, and nobody is, not even you.
The contrarian bet is fun but I wonder how it actually holds up. Prediction markets do tend to overprice dramatic outcomes, so "always bet no" isn't as dumb as it sounds. Would love to see real P&L over a few months, not just the thesis.
I've backtested this kind of strategy, and it had a good return (like 100% APR), but then I realized it was cheating by knowing when things are going to resolve. Often times it's not clear. Your return depends a lot on how quickly you can get your money out. I never got around to trying a strat that doesn't know the resolution time, which actually has to be manual cause it takes some judgement to pick things that you…
Good old eat like a bird, poop like an elephant.