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Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

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Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#141

Post by withinrafael »

infecto wrote: post #114
withinrafael wrote: post #77

Very confusing. Polymarket doesn't allow US use/users. How are folks in the US participating on Polymarket? (VPNs and the like reportedly don't help either due to KYC policies.)

Polymarket has been live in the US since the beginning of the year. There is a queue but it’s absolutely live. And before that you could still use it so long as you did not use a VPN.

Strange. The current terms state:

> Restricted Jurisdictions. You acknowledge and agree that you are not permitted to access, use or trade with the Contracts on the Platform if you are residing in, a citizen of, organized in or located in the following jurisdictions (collectively, the “Restricted Jurisdictions”): Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Ontario, Poland, Quebec, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, the United States; or a jurisdiction or territory that is the subject of comprehensive country-wide, territory-wide, or regional economic sanctions by the United States, including but not limited to Iran, Syria, Cuba, North Korea, and the Crimea, Dontesk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.

Maybe I'm supposed to ignore that?

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#142

Post by SirSourdough »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #136
mr_00ff00 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Untrue for polymarket. True for kalshi. No bookie fees on polymarket

Wow that's news to me. How does polymarket make money if not from fees?

It doesn't seem like it's strictly true that they don't charge trading fees.

From their docs, it looks like they charge fees to bet "takers" (as opposed to makers), but exclude the geopolitical and world-events markets where they don't charge fees.

I have to imagine that may be related to some of the blow-back towards prediction markets about profiting on topics like war & their potential for manipulation.

Given it sounds like the bot bets everywhere other than sports, many of those categories would likely have fees in this case.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#144

Post by treyd »

some_random wrote: post #119
sterlingcrispin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

It doesn't matter if 99% resolve no, if they're priced appropriately betting no on every single one won't make you money.

That's a massive "if".

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#145

Post by some_random »

treyd wrote: post #144
some_random wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter if 99% resolve no, if they're priced appropriately betting no on every single one won't make you money.

That's a massive "if".

Totally, that's the entire conjecture of this bot. My point is just that the odds of the underlying events are irrelevant, what matters is if they're matched with the betting price

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#146

Post by wavemode »

slg wrote: post #75
dheera wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strategies like this can easily be positive EV until enough people discover it and that actually is the driving force behind efficient pricing. Here's how the mechanism works: I find that something is statistically worth $0.70 but I am able to buy it for $0.60 and statistically sell it for $0.70 (in the average). I make $0.10 each trade on average. Until you come along, copy my strategy and change $0.60 to $0.61 to f…

This all really depends on the efficiency of the market. I think these prediction markets would claim that is their goal, but even Wall Street isn't perfectly efficient. I would also guess that sports betting sites like DraftKings or FanDuel would be even less efficient and less likely to be swayed by a popular GitHub repo. Once again, it goes back to the share of the market that is participating for entertainment pu…

> I would also guess that sports betting sites like DraftKings or FanDuel would be even less efficient

Your strategy doesn't work on sportbooks to begin with, because bookmakers don't move the odds with the action.

That is, there is no such phenomenon as "the over is exciting therefore overpriced". Bookmakers price purely based on facts and statistics. Their pricing isn't affected by excitement nor by how many people are betting a certain way.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#147

Post by ryandrake »

sterlingcrispin wrote: post #44
tekno45 wrote: post #18

https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254 They admit no returns. But it does seem like a fun project and nowhere does it say anything about returns or profits so not scammy imo just funny meme backed code

Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

For the uninitiated, I believe the meme comes from Reddit, where there is one criticism subreddit, r/ThatHappened where people accuse other Redditors of making up stories of events that never actually happened, and then a meta-criticism subreddit, r/Nothingeverhapens, where people make fun of r/ThatHappened as conspiracy theorists who think everything posted online is fake. Hard to tell how much of each subreddit is trolling and how much are people earnestly criticizing each other.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#148

Post by superfrank »

cordwainersmith wrote: post #32

The contrarian bet is fun but I wonder how it actually holds up. Prediction markets do tend to overprice dramatic outcomes, so "always bet no" isn't as dumb as it sounds. Would love to see real P&L over a few months, not just the thesis.

I'm pretty into prediction markets and have some strategies that make me small, but consistent returns.

I think timing is the missing piece of this. Just randomly betting no on everything likely isn't going to give good results, but if you tied in a news API and just bet no on anything related to a major story right after the news starts picking it up, I would expect you could make a solid return.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#149

Post by Cthulhu_ »

bargainbin wrote: post #111
pinkmuffinere wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.

71 cents*, the bookie gets a cut either way it goes.

This is the truth of the matter, ultimately nobody wins except the bookie, who profits either way.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#150

Post by Majromax »

logicallee wrote: post #42

Disclaimer: I contribute work as a political advisor and don't participate in betting markets as a market participant. Nevertheless, Polymarket is a very interesting marketplace of sentiments and information, and it can be a very strong leading indicator of huge price movements in "real" markets like the NYSE, in part because it directly measures one factor of sentiment, i.e. whatever the prediction is about. Market…

Wet streets cause rain? You don’t show that the Polymarket signal lead Nasdaq.
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