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Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

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Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#71

Post by slg »

sterlingcrispin wrote: post #60
slg wrote: post #54

It's interesting that this is explicitly for non-sports markets because I see no reason why this would be less applicable there. Sports betters have long talked about that the winning strategy is usually to bet the under (i.e. the no) on most bets. The over (i.e. the yes) is generally a more exciting and fun outcome which causes it to attract more betters which in turns makes that side overpriced. Like with this bot,…

it avoids sports bets because "Who will win game 6 of XYZ" is formatted on the polymarket backend as a Yes/No bet. There's a lot of markets with Yes/No plumbing even though you wouldn't interpret them as such

Fair enough, I assumed the exclusion of sports with a deliberate decision rather than one forced on the project due to the technical details of the platform.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#74

Post by pinkmuffinere »

sterlingcrispin wrote: post #44
tekno45 wrote: post #18

https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254 They admit no returns. But it does seem like a fun project and nowhere does it say anything about returns or profits so not scammy imo just funny meme backed code

Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though.

I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#75

Post by slg »

dheera wrote: post #65
slg wrote: post #54

It's interesting that this is explicitly for non-sports markets because I see no reason why this would be less applicable there. Sports betters have long talked about that the winning strategy is usually to bet the under (i.e. the no) on most bets. The over (i.e. the yes) is generally a more exciting and fun outcome which causes it to attract more betters which in turns makes that side overpriced. Like with this bot,…

Strategies like this can easily be positive EV until enough people discover it and that actually is the driving force behind efficient pricing. Here's how the mechanism works: I find that something is statistically worth $0.70 but I am able to buy it for $0.60 and statistically sell it for $0.70 (in the average). I make $0.10 each trade on average. Until you come along, copy my strategy and change $0.60 to $0.61 to f…

This all really depends on the efficiency of the market. I think these prediction markets would claim that is their goal, but even Wall Street isn't perfectly efficient. I would also guess that sports betting sites like DraftKings or FanDuel would be even less efficient and less likely to be swayed by a popular GitHub repo. Once again, it goes back to the share of the market that is participating for entertainment purposes. That's a lot more common for sports betting than it is for will the US bomb a certain country.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#76

Post by topspin »

tekno45 wrote: post #18

https://x.com/sterlingcrispin/status/2043723823678382254 They admit no returns. But it does seem like a fun project and nowhere does it say anything about returns or profits so not scammy imo just funny meme backed code

"just funny meme backed code"

I laughed. That's inspired. Quite the nerd-snipe as well, based on the rapidly accumulating threads on effectiveness, probabilities and markets.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#78

Post by [deleted] »

raincole wrote: post #56
sterlingcrispin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I wonder what it means exactly. Typical Polymarket looks like this: X happens before May. [Yes][No] X happens before June. [Yes][No] X happens before July. [Yes][No] ... So even if X ended up happens in December, it's still 12.5% Yes and 87.5% No?

[deleted]

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#79

Post by traderj0e »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #74
sterlingcrispin wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes exactly. The bot has zero risk management and I have a strong disclaimer on the github it is essentially a meme. 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. There's a good dataset on huggingface if you wanted to do some data science https://huggingface.co/datasets/SII-WANGZJ/Polymarket_data

> 73% of all polymarkets do resolve to No though. I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.

It's not. But also a lot of those stats thrown around are misleading.

Re: Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets

#80

Post by dheera »

slg wrote: post #75
dheera wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strategies like this can easily be positive EV until enough people discover it and that actually is the driving force behind efficient pricing. Here's how the mechanism works: I find that something is statistically worth $0.70 but I am able to buy it for $0.60 and statistically sell it for $0.70 (in the average). I make $0.10 each trade on average. Until you come along, copy my strategy and change $0.60 to $0.61 to f…

This all really depends on the efficiency of the market. I think these prediction markets would claim that is their goal, but even Wall Street isn't perfectly efficient. I would also guess that sports betting sites like DraftKings or FanDuel would be even less efficient and less likely to be swayed by a popular GitHub repo. Once again, it goes back to the share of the market that is participating for entertainment pu…

> but even Wall Street isn't perfectly efficient.

Yes, you can find positive EV trades on Wall Street as well. I've been diving into this a lot lately, all I can say is it's 10X harder to find strategies that work on Wall Street than prediction markets.

With one exception.

The one easy long-lasting anomaly to exploit on Wall Street which actually does NOT exist on prediction markets: "American stocks go up most of the time". This is actually a massively exploitable structural anomaly (you just buy and hold forever and effectively reap the rewards of a biased coin) and the source of the anomaly is mostly US monetary policy, US foreign policy, and US tech expertise put together. However, it still is an anomaly. The thesis that SPY will continue going up forever is also predicated on these things continuing to work the way they have in the past.

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