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The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

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Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#151
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Provided they’re not connected to lengths of conducting material, they ought to be ok. Hard to be certain though, as transformers are more than meets the eye.

> transformers are more than meets the eye. Really? Transformers are very simple electrical machines. The design process is complex but the object itself is made of mild steel for the tank and supporting frameworks, special steel for the core, copper or aluminium for the windings, paper and resin for insulation, and oil for insulation and cooling. There are a few ancillary components to do with detecting faults and s…

(It was a reference to the children’s cartoon)

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

having lived in the tech age, I'm not completely against that idea.

starvation and dysentery at the same time appeal to you?

you're assuming that without electricity, I don't know how to take care of myself.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#153

One of the more likely black swan events that has the potential to cause global upheaval. Quite a bit of data now from other solar systems in terms of likelihood of these events. So far it looks like it is slightly more likely to occur in the ramp up stage of a cycle, not at the very peak. We would most likely see a very large sunspot(s) days before the event and have 10-15 hours to take action, decoupling transforme…

It's not a black swan if there are historical examples, is it?

That's true. More of a grey swan if it has to be a bird.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In such a scenario we would just start cobbling together makeshift transformers using available materials. You just need some spools of wire, a hunk of iron, then wrap the wires around. It won't be pretty, last for 50 years, etc. But it would be enough to get electricity back on in all major and medium cities to at least some degree. If it's really bad people will tear apart motors from clothes dryers to steal wire i…

Lmao ok mate, whatever you reckon. Keep in mind you'll need to do this without the internet to help and people not being super cooperative as they do whatever they can to get food.

Like I said: it wouldn't be a pretty situation but people aren't just going to sit back and accept the destruction of civilization and/or death. People will dig out old textbooks on electricity and figure it out.

Transformers are simple devices. The first electrical gear was a janky DIY affair by modern standards. We wouldn't wait 10 years to manufacture modern switchgear... we'd cobble together literally anything to bootstrap electrical power. It would start off as isolated islands with nearby generating capacity and where enough gear was still operating then spread from there. Major cities would be back online first, followed relatively quickly by medium cities. That might mean that only certain parts of those cities have power initially with neighbors having to share fridges as only every other block is repaired.

Small cities, towns, and rural areas would be proper fucked for a while... possibly a year or more. But before a year was up enough power would be restored to manufacturing that many of those people would install solar grid-forming and/or battery systems.

For whatever it is worth we are better positioned now than in the past. More and more people have distributed generating capacity with solar PV and grid-forming systems like Enphase IQ8 can form a microgrid just from solar energy without a battery (at reduced capacity depending on sunlight conditions). Even 10-15 years ago solar was useless without a grid to tie into so a full grid outage would be close to a 100% outage. 10% remaining may not be a large amount but its a lot more than 0 and enough to move your neighbor's fridge/freezer into your garage and keep food cold for the whole neighborhood.

(Disaster resilience is a feature of distributed solar PV, especially with batteries, that is almost never talked about)

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There has been an oversupply of transformer manufacturing plants in the world for decades. No one needs the Internet to start building more. The designs already exist and most of the small manufacturers are still using manual or at most semi-automatic winding machines. For large transformers this is true even in the big manufacturers like ABB and Hitachi. Stacking the cores can easily be done by hand. The bottleneck…

Other things you haven't considered: Fuel pumps run on electricity, so you need to get them working before you can get any materials, everywhere, or you won't be able to fuel all the ships and trucks necessary to move anything. Phone lines (and the internet) runs on electricity so you need to get them back up to coordinate everything. While you are trying to rebuild your transformers most of the food we have in stora…

Yes... so priority will be to find diesel generators to get refineries back online. Individual pump stations will, if needed, scavenge solar panels or generators to get their own pumps up and running.

Governments will prioritize food and electrical infrastructure, likely banning transport of anything not critical to these two categories. Trucks traveling to transformer plants (and plants converted into switchgear plants) will carry food to the plant if necessary.

I'm not trying to paint a rosy picture... that everything will be OK everywhere. Some areas will manage better than others. Some areas may well turn into riot zones as people fight each other for food. Recovery will initially be spotty and uneven.

But I'm 100% confident it will not be a semi-permanent collapse of civilization. I'm also 100% confident some metro areas (and the farming areas nearest to them) will be back up and operational within 1-2 weeks up to 1-2 months depending on local circumstances.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#156
post #22

If these Miyake events were so spectacular, why do they not appear in the historical record? I appreciate that 774 was in the "dark ages" but something as impressive as the Carrington event would appear in some chronicles, surely? EDIT: Sorry, checked Wikipedia: "Annus Domini (the year of the Lord) 774. This year the Northumbrians banished their king, Alred, from York at Easter-tide; and chose Ethelred, the son of Mu…

It would be the "dark ages" in Europe, but not in China. It was also during a time of scholarship and observation in the Islamic world. If it was observed, I would have expected it to be mentioned by Islamic astronomers. Perhaps it was.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#157
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Provided they’re not connected to lengths of conducting material, they ought to be ok. Hard to be certain though, as transformers are more than meets the eye.

> transformers are more than meets the eye. Really? Transformers are very simple electrical machines. The design process is complex but the object itself is made of mild steel for the tank and supporting frameworks, special steel for the core, copper or aluminium for the windings, paper and resin for insulation, and oil for insulation and cooling. There are a few ancillary components to do with detecting faults and s…

That’s a really clear response. I like the details and context you include.

When I was a little kid the original tv series of “the transformers” was one of the most popular children’s shows. The theme song sang, in a sort of robotic chorus: “Transformers: more than meets the eye”. I was trying to make a subtle reference to this, as an inside joke to people the exact same age as me (or people who know the Shia LaBeouf movies, if they even use that same lyric?)

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#158
post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> transformers are more than meets the eye. Really? Transformers are very simple electrical machines. The design process is complex but the object itself is made of mild steel for the tank and supporting frameworks, special steel for the core, copper or aluminium for the windings, paper and resin for insulation, and oil for insulation and cooling. There are a few ancillary components to do with detecting faults and s…

That’s a really clear response. I like the details and context you include. When I was a little kid the original tv series of “the transformers” was one of the most popular children’s shows. The theme song sang, in a sort of robotic chorus: “Transformers: more than meets the eye”. I was trying to make a subtle reference to this, as an inside joke to people the exact same age as me (or people who know the Shia LaBeouf…

Thanks. Working in the industry for over thirty years has paid off :-)

I'm much too old for the Transformers TV series, that flew straight past me I'm afraid. I was eight when the original Dr Who series started!

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