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The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

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Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#21

Post by Turskarama »

hparadiz wrote: post #17
Turskarama wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big risk is a bunch of transformers blow up, essentially taking the grid down. Since we would have to bootstrap the grid again without the advantage of the grid... this would likely set civilization back pretty far, a new dark age is far from impossible.

From my understanding it mostly effects large pieces of metal like copper lines but would be unlikely to create a significant charge in small electronics and wouldn't destroy solar panels or the vast majority of components. Any transformer pieces that are in a disassembled state prior to the event would be easy to put together and bootstrap any such event. Some locations like inside concrete buildings or under ground…

The thing is there are very few transformers in a disassembled state ready to go. Solar panels would be fine, but they're effectively useless without the ability to deliver power.

Covid was enough to create an international backlog of transformers, and that was with a normal rate of attrition.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#22

Post by b800h »

If these Miyake events were so spectacular, why do they not appear in the historical record? I appreciate that 774 was in the "dark ages" but something as impressive as the Carrington event would appear in some chronicles, surely?

EDIT: Sorry, checked Wikipedia:

"Annus Domini (the year of the Lord) 774. This year the Northumbrians banished their king, Alred, from York at Easter-tide; and chose Ethelred, the son of Mull, for their lord, who reigned four winters. This year also appeared in the heavens a red crucifix, after sunset; the Mercians and the men of Kent fought at Otford; and wonderful serpents were seen in the land of the South-Saxons. — Anglo-Saxon Chronicle[9]"

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#23

Post by dan_mctree »

hparadiz wrote: post #17
Turskarama wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big risk is a bunch of transformers blow up, essentially taking the grid down. Since we would have to bootstrap the grid again without the advantage of the grid... this would likely set civilization back pretty far, a new dark age is far from impossible.

From my understanding it mostly effects large pieces of metal like copper lines but would be unlikely to create a significant charge in small electronics and wouldn't destroy solar panels or the vast majority of components. Any transformer pieces that are in a disassembled state prior to the event would be easy to put together and bootstrap any such event. Some locations like inside concrete buildings or under ground…

There's not nearly enough transformers in reserve to properly rebuild the grid and you can't always just drop in and replace either. New transformers are also not currently able to be produced fast, and having society collapse around you probably wouldn't help while trying to increase their production rate. If we'd lose most transformers, it could be many months or years before large regions could see their power back, enough time to cause vast damage directly and indirectly.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#24

Post by dividedbyzero »

Turskarama wrote: post #13
dskrepps wrote: post #9

I've wondered for a while. Lots of people seem to think a Carrington Event will simply fry all small electronics and make everything stop working, but from my understanding all it'll actually do is cause power surges in long transmission lines and disrupt wireless signals. Apparently telegraph lines sparked and shocked people. So what effect will that actually have now? Will a massive power surge go through my house…

The big risk is a bunch of transformers blow up, essentially taking the grid down. Since we would have to bootstrap the grid again without the advantage of the grid... this would likely set civilization back pretty far, a new dark age is far from impossible.

Aren't transformers protected from this sort of thing nowadays?

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#25

Post by rwmj »

b800h wrote: post #22

If these Miyake events were so spectacular, why do they not appear in the historical record? I appreciate that 774 was in the "dark ages" but something as impressive as the Carrington event would appear in some chronicles, surely? EDIT: Sorry, checked Wikipedia: "Annus Domini (the year of the Lord) 774. This year the Northumbrians banished their king, Alred, from York at Easter-tide; and chose Ethelred, the son of Mu…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/774%E2%80%93775_carbon-14_spik...

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#26

Post by mensetmanusman »

It’s interesting, considering that this is very likely in humanity’s future. Probably long after these HN comments, but it will happen, and unless our future ancestors are amazing planners, it may end up being one of the most disruptive events in human civilization.

I wonder if an architecture like micro grids per city block running on small fusion or fission reactors 1000 years from now would protect them, however.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#27

Post by Cthulhu_ »

Turskarama wrote: post #13
dskrepps wrote: post #9

I've wondered for a while. Lots of people seem to think a Carrington Event will simply fry all small electronics and make everything stop working, but from my understanding all it'll actually do is cause power surges in long transmission lines and disrupt wireless signals. Apparently telegraph lines sparked and shocked people. So what effect will that actually have now? Will a massive power surge go through my house…

The big risk is a bunch of transformers blow up, essentially taking the grid down. Since we would have to bootstrap the grid again without the advantage of the grid... this would likely set civilization back pretty far, a new dark age is far from impossible.

> a new dark age is far from impossible.

Nah, it's just transformers and the power grid, that can be fixed pretty quickly - see the response after natural disasters, Ukraine's power grid being directly attacked, etc.

The only limiting factor would be the availability of spare parts and personnel.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#28

Post by dividedbyzero »

As far as Carrington-like events are concerned I believe consensus is that most equipment and electronics would be fine, satellites would take damage, radio communication would be out, the electrical grid would go down and be hard to restart, but at least the most important grid transformers would be protected and survive the event, as would cars, computers and machinery. Would a Miyazake event change that meaningfully? Can we know for sure?

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#29

Post by Cthulhu_ »

xvilka wrote: post #12

It's possible to build shielded (up to a certain point of course) electronics and power grids, it's just a lot of work and money. Ideally, all new devices, grid lines, transformers should be made with at least some level of protection from those events. In a few decades world will not be a sitting duck anymore if follow this strategy.

The power grid does have protections already - surge protectors, breakers, redunancy, etc. There's many possible sources for power surges. There's protections in place, contingency plans, 24/7 on-call fast response staff, spares, etc.

Of course, that's all contingent on budgeting, which is why it's important that governments invest and keep investing in infrastructure.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#30

Post by FrustratedMonky »

Turskarama wrote: post #21
hparadiz wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From my understanding it mostly effects large pieces of metal like copper lines but would be unlikely to create a significant charge in small electronics and wouldn't destroy solar panels or the vast majority of components. Any transformer pieces that are in a disassembled state prior to the event would be easy to put together and bootstrap any such event. Some locations like inside concrete buildings or under ground…

The thing is there are very few transformers in a disassembled state ready to go. Solar panels would be fine, but they're effectively useless without the ability to deliver power. Covid was enough to create an international backlog of transformers, and that was with a normal rate of attrition.

Exactly this.

Lets say there were a few transformers that did survive.

The parts to make new transformers are manufactured all over the place.

So you would need to transport the 'working' transformers where they are needed to get power back to each plant that manufactures some singular component that goes into a new transformer. AND Transport them, when gas stations in-between are all also without power.

The global supply chain is complicated and spread out. There are many places with single failure points.

-> Don't have link, but isn't there an article titles something like "nobody can make a pencil anymore". Which traces out like a dozen connections for even such a simple thing.

And, don't forget, a lot of power plants need power to be re-started. They don't all have backup gas turbines to get going again.

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