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The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

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Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#131
post #113
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We could decouple transformers to stop them from being destroyed. Wiring is easy to repair, it's the transformers that are vulnerable.

We 'could' at least in theory. The actual response I expect is something closer to "don't look up"

We (humanity) have multiple satellites looking at the sun 24/7 and warning of flares in advance [1]. There's even a running forecast of geomagnetic events [2]. We very much do "look up" and have been for decades.

[1] https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/solar-system/sun/exploration/

[2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-black...

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#132
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We 'could' at least in theory. The actual response I expect is something closer to "don't look up"

We (humanity) have multiple satellites looking at the sun 24/7 and warning of flares in advance [1]. There's even a running forecast of geomagnetic events [2]. We very much do "look up" and have been for decades. [1] https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/solar-system/sun/exploration/ [2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-black...

We 'scientists' look for that and have solar weather forecasts.

We 'for profit capitalists' have never completely shut down the entire economy by turning off all the power, hence causing billions and billions of dollars in damages to avoid the end of modern society.

The whole damned point of don't look up is the scientists looked up the entire time, the businesses/governments/citizens at large did not.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#133
post #11

> Astronauts would undoubtedly receive lethal doses of radiation, and even people on board airplanes could encounter dangerous levels. It sounds like a more immediate problem would be that all aircraft and spacecraft electronic systems would fail permanently? They wouldn't need to worry about the radiation doses.

Electrically, I'd think the Faraday protection would be similar to current airplane lightning strikes. Ie, mostly survivable, if not damage free.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#135
post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We (humanity) have multiple satellites looking at the sun 24/7 and warning of flares in advance [1]. There's even a running forecast of geomagnetic events [2]. We very much do "look up" and have been for decades. [1] https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/solar-system/sun/exploration/ [2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-black...

We 'scientists' look for that and have solar weather forecasts. We 'for profit capitalists' have never completely shut down the entire economy by turning off all the power, hence causing billions and billions of dollars in damages to avoid the end of modern society. The whole damned point of don't look up is the scientists looked up the entire time, the businesses/governments/citizens at large did not.

The second link is .noaa.gov, what do you think the last A in NOAA or .gov mean? Where do they get their funding from? This kind of doomerism is not only counterproductive, it's also just counterfactual.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's not nearly enough transformers in reserve to properly rebuild the grid and you can't always just drop in and replace either. New transformers are also not currently able to be produced fast, and having society collapse around you probably wouldn't help while trying to increase their production rate. If we'd lose most transformers, it could be many months or years before large regions could see their power bac…

In such a scenario we would just start cobbling together makeshift transformers using available materials. You just need some spools of wire, a hunk of iron, then wrap the wires around. It won't be pretty, last for 50 years, etc. But it would be enough to get electricity back on in all major and medium cities to at least some degree. If it's really bad people will tear apart motors from clothes dryers to steal wire i…

Lmao ok mate, whatever you reckon. Keep in mind you'll need to do this without the internet to help and people not being super cooperative as they do whatever they can to get food.

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#137

One of the more likely black swan events that has the potential to cause global upheaval. Quite a bit of data now from other solar systems in terms of likelihood of these events. So far it looks like it is slightly more likely to occur in the ramp up stage of a cycle, not at the very peak. We would most likely see a very large sunspot(s) days before the event and have 10-15 hours to take action, decoupling transforme…

It's not a black swan if there are historical examples, is it?

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#138
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We 'could' at least in theory. The actual response I expect is something closer to "don't look up"

We (humanity) have multiple satellites looking at the sun 24/7 and warning of flares in advance [1]. There's even a running forecast of geomagnetic events [2]. We very much do "look up" and have been for decades. [1] https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/solar-system/sun/exploration/ [2] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-black...

> We very much do "look up" and have been for decades.

In case you didn't pick it up, Don't Look Up is a callout to a recent movie [1]. I imagine that in this context it's more of a comment on the appetite of the population at large to undergo the temporary inconvenience of proactively taking the power-grid, and thus the vulnerable transformers, offline prior to the arrival of the event. We know the scientists will be looking up; it's the convincing of the population at large via a capitalist captured media that's the hard part.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t_Look_Up

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some random Australian gold prospector wrote about his experience (quoting Wikipedia): Lights of every imaginable color were issuing from the southern heavens, one color fading away only to give place to another if possible more beautiful than the last, the streams mounting to the zenith, but always becoming a rich purple when reaching there, and always curling round, leaving a clear strip of sky, which may be descri…

But this was not in reference to the 774AD event surely! Do you have a citation for the above quote? Edit: you probably meant the Carrington event, I am starting my next coffee now.

Oh, and I misread your comment! In fairness I was still working on my first cup

Re: The Carrington Event of 1859 disrupted telegraph lines

#140
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this. Lets say there were a few transformers that did survive. The parts to make new transformers are manufactured all over the place. So you would need to transport the 'working' transformers where they are needed to get power back to each plant that manufactures some singular component that goes into a new transformer. AND Transport them, when gas stations in-between are all also without power. The global s…

The essay is “I, Pencil” It’s a rollicking good read. Here it is in pdf form: https://fee.org/media/14940/read-i-pencil.pdf

Fascinating way to lobby for the dissolution of the USPS.

I rather wasn’t expecting that.

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