Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

livescience.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

151–160 of 237 posts

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#151

Post by DaniloDias »

mrfusion wrote: post #82
inglor_cz wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy. Education is everything. " The kind of people who get into positions of power - well, my impression is that they think they know better. Even if they are aware of the fact that in 1930 someone fucked up, they will not entertain the fact that they themselves might do the same. Also, some events are really complex. You can educate people about the 1929 or…

The most educated people I know seem the most partisan right now and most likely to parrot main stream media talking points. It’s making me question my assumptions about education. On the other hand Im just one data point.

The behavior that helped the most educated succeed was being informed. It’s not surprising that they maintain that pattern and in so doing, parrot mainstream media.

Most people have limited experience in managing information that they consider authoritative which turns out to be wrong.

I think the best example of authoritative misinformation for 2020 is Anthony Fauci’s guidance that masks don’t help until they do. I’m looking forward to watching people’s reactions when he inevitably asserts they don’t again.

2020 was a good year for skeptic production, boy howdy.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#152

Post by indigochill »

justinzollars wrote: post #63

I recommend reading William Strauss and Neil Howe's book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny [1]. The book introduces the idea of generational cycles [2] According to the theory, historical events are associated with recurring generational personas (archetypes) and I couldn't put it down when I read it over the summer. Several peop…

> we could very well have a bloody revolution or war considering the unaddressed underlying conditions

A revolution/civil war in the US is impossible. The US military is the best-equipped in the world (with tons of equipment no private individual can ever hope to acquire) and backed by the world's leading intelligence community. Regardless of how angry or desperate American citizens are, they don't have the capacity to wage anything resembling a war on the government. Violent protests (and continued domestic terrorism) are an entirely different matter, though.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#153

Post by datenarsch »

root_axis wrote: post #139
alisonatwork wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is too difficult to understand. It's anti-establishment versus establishment, populist versus elite, that sort of axis.

I still don't get it. It just seems silly to favor a candidate based on who rejects them. If policies on opposite sides of the political spectrum are interchangeable then why care at all who gets elected? At least voting for a 3rd party one can be said to be contributing to a cause closest to one's ideal, but being favorable to anyone who the mainstream doesn't approve of just seems like flawed logic.

The establishment/mainstream is the real enemy of the people. It totally makes sense to support anyone who you think could realistically challenge and destroy the status quo.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#155

Post by strombofulous »

vladTheInhaler wrote: post #129
strombofulous wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is such a ridiculously uncharitable interpretation of what the person you're replying to said. It makes me feel like I'm on twitter

Alright, why don't you start by explaining what you think they mean by "what we're seeing now", or by "violence done by the students", and how those things are causally linked?

Instead of letting you shift the goalposts, I'll explain why I think it was uncharitable.

Imo, it is very clear that the OP was not trying to imply that the students/professors were the ones personally or even indirectly involved in these riots. I also feel that it is clear that they were not trying to say that the students were nessicary doing anything wrong. They were replying to their parent comment which was discussing the effects that education had on Russian revolutionary leaders, and connected that same discussion to what we see today.

Do you think that they're wrong? Are they missing something critical? Reply to that instead of complaining about how it AlwAYs ComES bACk tO thE LefT.

If the facts make a certain group look bad, arguing that it's unfair to make that group look bad doesn't add anything. Add your own insight to the conversation and tell us why you think it's wrong or more nuanced

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#156

Post by zarkov99 »

rho4 wrote: post #61

I feel like an important often missed variable is what part of the population is actually not having enough food & shelter or not able to support their family.

I agree that is wrong, but it is not new. Standard of living are much higher than say the 50's. There is something else going on. A mix of nihilism, vast inequality and a societal sensory apparatus that is profiting immensely from churning hate.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#157

Post by xxpor »

esja wrote: post #92
mrfusion wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most educated people I know seem the most partisan right now and most likely to parrot main stream media talking points. It’s making me question my assumptions about education. On the other hand Im just one data point.

Many people who seem on paper to be highly educated are merely highly indoctrinated.

On the other hand, there appears to be a "skeptical" strain of discourse now that is just as arrogant, but in the other direction. As in, I disagree with the mainstream cultural view on a topic, so I therefore have the correct view on it.

This is best exemplified by someone like Michael Tracy or Glenn Greenwald IMO.

In my view they're more wrong than right, but they do have the occasional nugget where they do see through the BS. However, the mainstream view is correct more often than not. Additionally, a significant proportion of their takes are in bad faith.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#158

Post by jkinudsjknds »

neartheplain wrote: post #35
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

Perhaps unfortunately, 50 years might not be long enough for generational turnover in US government. Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell are both 78 years old. Nancy Pelosi is 80. Senators Diane Feinstein and Chuck Grassley are 87.

The new Georgia senator is the youngest elected senator since Biden. That was... an odd factoid to take in for me.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#159

Post by mcshicks »

rossdavidh wrote: post #100
mcshicks wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read Turchin's Secular Cycle where he goes over the data sets he uses to draw these conclusions on earlier societies. While the things he's trying to measure are not easy (for instance he uses the number and dates of found coin hoards as a relative measure of instability in England), the amount of data is pretty impressive. I actually gave up after he did all the data on England and skipped France, the Islamic Empi…

I realize this is what you meant but just want to clarify that Turchin did not skip the data for France, the Islamic empires, etc. He covers each one in some depth.

Yes sorry that's exactly what I meant. He had me convinced at the first few sets of data.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#160

Post by mrfusion »

xxpor wrote: post #157
esja wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many people who seem on paper to be highly educated are merely highly indoctrinated.

On the other hand, there appears to be a "skeptical" strain of discourse now that is just as arrogant, but in the other direction. As in, I disagree with the mainstream cultural view on a topic, so I therefore have the correct view on it. This is best exemplified by someone like Michael Tracy or Glenn Greenwald IMO. In my view they're more wrong than right, but they do have the occasional nugget where they do see thr…

I think you have something there. There’s certainly a phase when you stop trusting the mainstream where you overdo it and think everything is wrong.

The goal should probably be a balance. And probably realizing that nobody including the government or media deserves your blind trust.

Post reply on HN