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Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

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Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#91

Post by rblatz »

mrfusion wrote: post #82
inglor_cz wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy. Education is everything. " The kind of people who get into positions of power - well, my impression is that they think they know better. Even if they are aware of the fact that in 1930 someone fucked up, they will not entertain the fact that they themselves might do the same. Also, some events are really complex. You can educate people about the 1929 or…

The most educated people I know seem the most partisan right now and most likely to parrot main stream media talking points. It’s making me question my assumptions about education. On the other hand Im just one data point.

Mainstream media talking points vary from Trump and his family are breaking norms and traditions in a very dangerous way to our country, all the way to the Biden crime family is going to ruin this country. With major undertones of a lot of hurt, anger, and feeling like there is no hope among minorities or rural whites depending on which sources you choose to consume. Both are true, both need addressed. And it’s likely not a coincidence that both groups think the other’s movement is their enemy.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#92

Post by esja »

mrfusion wrote: post #82
inglor_cz wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy. Education is everything. " The kind of people who get into positions of power - well, my impression is that they think they know better. Even if they are aware of the fact that in 1930 someone fucked up, they will not entertain the fact that they themselves might do the same. Also, some events are really complex. You can educate people about the 1929 or…

The most educated people I know seem the most partisan right now and most likely to parrot main stream media talking points. It’s making me question my assumptions about education. On the other hand Im just one data point.

Many people who seem on paper to be highly educated are merely highly indoctrinated.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#93

Post by tathougies »

kaitai wrote: post #88
anewaccount2021 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once again - the best educated voter still only has two choices, and neither of these represent the poor. Do people on HN really think the very rich or the very poor were at all bothered by the Capitol riots? Government is irrelevant to both groups, in different ways.

The best educated voter -- any voter in fact -- can also run for office and transform the party. I dislike the rhetoric you're using that implies the parties are outside and beyond the reach of "normal" citizens. Of course they are institutions with substantial inertia and aims of their own. But as the elections of people as diverse as Cori Bush and Madison Cawthorne and Marjorie Taylor Greene show, it is certainly s…

they are increasingly beyond the reach of normal citizens. If your views do not align 100% with either party, you are increasingly marginalized. See the treatment of Donald Trump (a republican outsider, and not a traditional conservative by any means, but not a democrat in principle either) by the Republican party. For the past four years, republicans have refused to pass bills due to not matching ideological purity tests from Trump. The best example of this is DACA (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/09/trum...), for which Trump has repeatedly asked for a legislative solution that gives these children legal status. Because that is not the exact party line of the GOP, they didn't like his solution. And then along with that, he wanted the wall of course, which doesn't fall into line exactly with the democrats, so now, despite DACA and secure borders being an issue many care about, no political party would take them up due to ideological purity.

On the democrat side, see the treatment of Bernie Sanders and Tulsi Gabbard (Both non-traditional democrats in different ways) by their party.

Honestly, after seeing both how the GOP and Democrats treated Trump, Sanders, and Gabbard, I find myself supportive of all three of them despite them having a very different views. I simply like that they're not either party.

It increasingly seems that both parties are becoming incredibly dogmatic, and anyone who doesn't fall in line is simply barred from public discourse or elected office. It is increasingly true that in order to even get to elected office you need the support of a party.

In my state of Oregon, the democrats and republicans actually mandated that you be part of a party before being elected to office. You can no longer run as an independent. It's so bad, some people made an 'independent party' just to be able to have non-democrat or republican candidates on the ballot, but this suffers from the same issues as parties, in that those individuals still need to be 'nominated' by a select group of people annointed by the party organizers, which means even the independent party has a bias, even if they try to minimize it.

We need major electoral reform, nationwide, but it doesn't benefit any party to do that. What I would like to see are protesters from both BLM, Antifa, or whatever and the capitol protesters (not the rioters of any group please...) band together for a change and demand a better means of governance from their legislators. The people need to band together on common principles, instead of being divided by stupid policy points.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#94

Post by InitialLastName »

wilsonfiifi wrote: post #14
insert_coin wrote: post #7

As they say, history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.

That's brilliant! I wholeheartedly agree. In case anyone wonders where this saying comes from, my quick search attributes it to Margaret Atwood, from her book "The Testaments" [0]. [0] https://niemanstoryboard.org/stories/as-they-say-history-does-not-repeat-itself-but-it-rhymes/

That quote comes from far before that 2019 book. It showed up as early as the 70s in that form, frequently attributed (without verified evidence) to Mark Twain [0]

[0] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#95

Post by [deleted] »

jimktrains2 wrote: post #89
wilsonfiifi wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's brilliant! I wholeheartedly agree. In case anyone wonders where this saying comes from, my quick search attributes it to Margaret Atwood, from her book "The Testaments" [0]. [0] https://niemanstoryboard.org/stories/as-they-say-history-does-not-repeat-itself-but-it-rhymes/

The quote is much older than the testements.

[deleted]

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#96

Post by VLM »

qwantim1 wrote: post #42
roenxi wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, there are a lot of countries famous for their education which are nevertheless not ideal places to go. Culture might be a more important aspect than education. Education is relatively easy to transplant (c.f. China & the rest of Asia, or the US stealing many of Germany's good scientists after WWII, or the Brits leaching French expertise after the revolution). Culture is really hard to transplant because nobo…

While there’s not a 1:1 from education to happiness or prosperity, the least educated countries are really not doing well.

Possibly the cause and effect are flipped and education is merely a recreation expense item for the masses.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#97

Post by AniseAbyss »

74d-fe6-2c6 wrote: post #17
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

Education doesn't work when people only watch their propaganda media. And when your entire social and professional circle is in the cult good luck breaking out.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#98

Post by rossdavidh »

bencollier49 wrote: post #62

This Turchin fellow seems to have missed the boat by about 20 years. The book "Generations: The History of America's Future" by Strauss and Howe was published in 1991 and predicted exactly the same thing. It was a bestseller at the time. It's so well known that it's notable on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generatio... It predicted a "crisis of 2020" caused by a number of factors inclu…

Turchin discusses this here: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/prophecy-fourth-turning...

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#99

Post by leesalminen »

tathougies wrote: post #93
kaitai wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best educated voter -- any voter in fact -- can also run for office and transform the party. I dislike the rhetoric you're using that implies the parties are outside and beyond the reach of "normal" citizens. Of course they are institutions with substantial inertia and aims of their own. But as the elections of people as diverse as Cori Bush and Madison Cawthorne and Marjorie Taylor Greene show, it is certainly s…

they are increasingly beyond the reach of normal citizens. If your views do not align 100% with either party, you are increasingly marginalized. See the treatment of Donald Trump (a republican outsider, and not a traditional conservative by any means, but not a democrat in principle either) by the Republican party. For the past four years, republicans have refused to pass bills due to not matching ideological purity…

This should be the top comment IMHO.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#100

Post by rossdavidh »

mcshicks wrote: post #60
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

I read Turchin's Secular Cycle where he goes over the data sets he uses to draw these conclusions on earlier societies. While the things he's trying to measure are not easy (for instance he uses the number and dates of found coin hoards as a relative measure of instability in England), the amount of data is pretty impressive. I actually gave up after he did all the data on England and skipped France, the Islamic Empi…

I realize this is what you meant but just want to clarify that Turchin did not skip the data for France, the Islamic empires, etc. He covers each one in some depth.
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