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Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

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Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#21

Post by inglor_cz »

74d-fe6-2c6 wrote: post #17
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

"That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy. Education is everything. "

The kind of people who get into positions of power - well, my impression is that they think they know better. Even if they are aware of the fact that in 1930 someone fucked up, they will not entertain the fact that they themselves might do the same.

Also, some events are really complex. You can educate people about the 1929 or 2008 economic crises from very different perspectives, from far-left to libertarian, and the lessons will be very different.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#22

Post by iguy »

74d-fe6-2c6 wrote: post #17
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

And the type of education surely matters. If the goal is to break through this 50-year horizon, then presumably an important part is to really get inside the heads of people at least that long ago. Not to just translate our quarrels & concerns backwards, but rather to stay immersed in the issues of (say) 1920 long enough to feel what was important to people of the time.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#23

Post by flybrand »

Elite overproduction happens in several ways - with tech, new services, new hardware, we all have the capability of an elite from a few decades back.

We’ve lowered the barrier to being an elite, to having that reach.

Also, we’ve made it possible to see that everyone around you might also be an elite.

Not only is elite over production occurring, we’ve lowered the cost to produce elites, and we’ve increased societal visibility of the elites that exist.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#24

Post by flybrand »

orange_tee wrote: post #8
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

The way I understood it, elite overproduction is about successful wealthy people, not enjoying the political influence that they believed they would enjoy after attaining their wealth.

Idle hands among those who have far reach will eventually do things that lead to conflict.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#25

Post by flybrand »

watwut wrote: post #20
inglor_cz wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"We are much less violent than 50 years ago" I would say that the population is, on average, much older and has more to lose. Fortysomethings do not regularly engage in street chaos. This is even more visible in Europe, even in formerly violent places like the Balkans or Northern Ireland. Once the share of the young hotheads in the population drops, you have much smaller probability of really serious riots.

Young people are less violent then they used to be. It is not just about their share in population, they behave less violently then young people 50 years ago.

People who are less violent can easily become violent because they don’t understand the cost and destruction of force escalation.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#26

Post by flybrand »

wombatmobile wrote: post #3

What is a “violent upheaval”? Without a specific definition, such as “civil war resulting in 620,000 deaths”, they’re fairly easy to predict.

He goes into it in some detail in the book - the math goes beyond my ability to summarize. He looks at conflicts / murders / etc per year.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#27

Post by flybrand »

leereeves wrote: post #11
wombatmobile wrote: post #3

What is a “violent upheaval”? Without a specific definition, such as “civil war resulting in 620,000 deaths”, they’re fairly easy to predict.

I think what happened in 2020 qualifies. While tame compared to the Civil War, it was comparable to the upheaval that happened about 50 years ago, and certainly not easy to predict. > between 15 million and 26 million people participated at some point in the demonstrations > arson, vandalism and looting caused about $1–2 billion in insured damage between May 26 and June 8, > By early June, at least 200 American citie…

Technically he would have counted deaths, if I recall correctly. I agree w your idea though.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#28

Post by thewindowmovie5 »

iguy wrote: post #22
74d-fe6-2c6 wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

And the type of education surely matters. If the goal is to break through this 50-year horizon, then presumably an important part is to really get inside the heads of people at least that long ago. Not to just translate our quarrels & concerns backwards, but rather to stay immersed in the issues of (say) 1920 long enough to feel what was important to people of the time.

...

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#29

Post by thewindowmovie5 »

74d-fe6-2c6 wrote: post #17
inglor_cz wrote: post #2

Turchin's two main ideas are intriguing. a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. b) elite overproduction…

> a) 50 years is enough for "institutional memory" to go out of the window. This may change with longevity breakthroughs, but 50 years is currently enough for a complete generation exchange, so the new leaders have no memory of the previous upheaval and will make the same mistakes again. Or at least the same kind of mistakes, details are always different. That's why education is the most important pillar of democracy…

Agree. I think the current crisis in US is because of lack of education and the whitewashing or omitting of important events in history. Just yesterday I saw a comment in here adding that deejays now have control of all three branches of the government(which was obviously false) and that was dangerous. But i guess the poster had no idea about what the three branches of the government.

Re: Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)

#30

Post by [deleted] »

flybrand wrote: post #26
wombatmobile wrote: post #3

What is a “violent upheaval”? Without a specific definition, such as “civil war resulting in 620,000 deaths”, they’re fairly easy to predict.

He goes into it in some detail in the book - the math goes beyond my ability to summarize. He looks at conflicts / murders / etc per year.

[deleted]
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