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Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

france24.com

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Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#151

Post by majewsky »

kick wrote: post #45

There's no possible way this is going to lead to a good discussion when any sensible person will say "Hope he dies" or similar, which is unfortunate because it's such an interesting thing. My only thought that has much public value is that the timing of the US President's sudden and strange willingness to wear a mask after mocking them for so long looks suspicious under this light.

> when any sensible person will say "Hope he dies" or similar

Any utilitarian philosopher will support that sentiment if there is reason to believe that his death will prevent a large number of deaths. Sorta like a practical instance of the trolley problem.

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#152

Post by gizmo »

SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #150
gizmo wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pacific Rim definition I use: https://www.yourdictionary.com/pacific-rim . I'm not talking about the Americas. Sweden did a lot better in Q1. It was the only western European country with positive growth, and it vastly outperformed everybody else. I expect they'll also outperform the rest of Europe in subsequent quarters, but this will remain to be seen. The death toll in Sweden is completely in line with its neighbo…

I do not operate with "all cause mortality". I look at the excess death in April May, and in Sweden is so much higher it is not a serious conversation to even dispute that.

Epidemiologists look at annual deaths cumulative from the start of the flu season, exactly because we care about total mortality and not about noisy spikes in the data. And that picture looks completely different: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcTV1OmWsAE3kAs?format=jpg&name=...

Remember that 2018 and 2019 were unusually mild flu seasons, so many people had already outlived their actuarial life expectancy when covid hit.

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#153

Post by Mikeb85 »

BoiledCabbage wrote: post #16
brink wrote: post #4

Not to be insensitive, but what's the death rate for healthy individuals in his age range? Next to zero? Italy reported that 99% of those who died from Corona had other health issues.[1] In my county (county, not country) it was reported that 99.4% of our Covid cases have recovered, and that was just the cases that were tracked. Yes, the vulnerable should be taken care of, but legitimately asking - why is there still…

I really wish people (not you) would stop pushing the idea that death is the only consequence of COVID. Three different NFL players have said their lungs still aren't recovered and they're still getting winded months after having COVID. These are people in their 30s and younger and in some of the best fitness in the world. Plenty of stories of blood clotting leading to many other issues in the general population duri…

Ever had pneumonia? Same deal.

I had Covid, felt sluggish for a few months after all symptoms went away. Just yesterday did a 25km hike, felt great. It's shitty and a tad worse than the flu, but I have no doubt that 99% will eventually be 100% better.

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#154

Post by Mikeb85 »

braythwayt wrote: post #18
brink wrote: post #4

Not to be insensitive, but what's the death rate for healthy individuals in his age range? Next to zero? Italy reported that 99% of those who died from Corona had other health issues.[1] In my county (county, not country) it was reported that 99.4% of our Covid cases have recovered, and that was just the cases that were tracked. Yes, the vulnerable should be taken care of, but legitimately asking - why is there still…

Are you an epidemiologist? Physician specializing in blood and/or respiratory diseases? Failing that, have you scoured the available literature with a completely open mind, and can summarize the arguments ranging from taking this incredibly seriously to blowing it off as just a "flu?" Or have you seen one or two essays that seem persuasive, and quote the studies that happen to support the argument the author's wish t…

Tons of people here have backgrounds in maths, statistics and so on. There's enough data available out there that I'm sure plenty of HN commentators can make informed posts on this subject.

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#155

Post by phoobahr »

SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #124
mindslight wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say Trump is that stupid, either due to some mental degeneration or perhaps simply never being told "no" in his life. Covid should have made for a shoe-in second term. Give televised speeches reassuring and leading through a tough time, act on the advice of public health experts, and deflect the economic damage as doing the best we can. The wartime president boost. I think he could have even switched to this…

If he was "that" stupid and thought it is just flu he would never close borders with China, he'd never sign that money stimulus bill, he'd never install Covid task force; he would never have done so many things - so he clearly understood that Covid is not flu. But politically agree - he made a huge mistake.

Of course he would close borders - he thinks trade wars are easy to win and it’s an easy sell to his racist base.

Of course he’d sign The stimulus bill - it made looting the country even easier.

Of course he’d have a task force - he’d liquidated those who could bring him to task (and incidentally do the rest of the country some good) and a task force is an opportunity to sell appointments on hand and then dispose of them with little ceremony later. Oh yeah right that task force that isn’t exactly setting policy these days.

When you have no shame, no decency and make every decision as a means to win the zero sum game immediately in front of you, well, you don’t have to be smart, you don’t need to have a plan and the most opportunistic scum will leap to your aid as a means to facilitate their own graft.

This political mistake is little different than all of his other shitty, petty, and unpardonable catastrophes. Treason big and small.

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#156

Post by SomeoneFromCA »

gizmo wrote: post #152
SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not operate with "all cause mortality". I look at the excess death in April May, and in Sweden is so much higher it is not a serious conversation to even dispute that.

Epidemiologists look at annual deaths cumulative from the start of the flu season, exactly because we care about total mortality and not about noisy spikes in the data. And that picture looks completely different: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcTV1OmWsAE3kAs?format=jpg&name=... Remember that 2018 and 2019 were unusually mild flu seasons, so many people had already outlived their actuarial life expectancy when covid hi…

I do not play in creative accounting. There is a visible by naked eye large bulge of excess death in April and May in Sweden, which exctly equal to number of counted covid deaths, and same for Norway - a much smaller bulge, exactly equal to number of death from Covid. What you are engaging in is exactly kind of accounting caused credit crunch in 2008.

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#157

Post by braythwayt »

Press2forEN wrote: post #47
braythwayt wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you an epidemiologist? Physician specializing in blood and/or respiratory diseases? Failing that, have you scoured the available literature with a completely open mind, and can summarize the arguments ranging from taking this incredibly seriously to blowing it off as just a "flu?" Or have you seen one or two essays that seem persuasive, and quote the studies that happen to support the argument the author's wish t…

It is quite possible for someone to have all the credentials you specified and still agree with OP. Trying to credential-shame someone out of the conversation doesn't help anyone.

Late reply, but I think this is important.

I agree about credential-shaming, however, note my second paragraph, which was "failing that , did you..."

I feel the same thing about programming. Do you have an education? Failing that, are you experienced with and do you follow the practices accepted by the industry?

Likewise, I also point out that not doing a thorough review of the literature, but only reviewing part of the literature is a bad practice when arguing against the consensus reached by people who review all of the literature and data.

It was totally up to the author of that comment to say, "Yes, I am an epidemiologist." Or to say, "No I'm not, but I subscribe to the following journals and have read 82 results, here they are."

Nobody needs to have credentials for anything in my book, but if someone doesn't have them, the onus is really on them to show that they reached their conclusion via method and rigour.

Otherwise, they are really, REALLY vulnerable to unconscious bias, which means that I am not willing to give their conclusion much weight, even if it seems supported by the results they choose to cite.

Re: Brazil's President Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus

#158

Post by braythwayt »

Mikeb85 wrote: post #154
braythwayt wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you an epidemiologist? Physician specializing in blood and/or respiratory diseases? Failing that, have you scoured the available literature with a completely open mind, and can summarize the arguments ranging from taking this incredibly seriously to blowing it off as just a "flu?" Or have you seen one or two essays that seem persuasive, and quote the studies that happen to support the argument the author's wish t…

Tons of people here have backgrounds in maths, statistics and so on. There's enough data available out there that I'm sure plenty of HN commentators can make informed posts on this subject.

"I'm sure plenty of HN commentators can make informed posts on this subject."

So am I, that's why I come here.

But again, when you're an "Amateur X," when you break from the "Professional X" consensus, the onus is on you to show that you reached your conclusion with method and rigour.

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