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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#141

Post by kovek »

mkbelieve wrote: post #114

I don't understand how anyone can believe that we're near even a whiff of AGI when we barely understand what dreaming is, or how the human brain interacts with the quantum world. There are so many elements of human creativity that are still utterly hidden behind a wall that it makes me feel insane when an entire industry is convinced we're just magically going to have the answer soon. The people heralding the emergen…

There's many different definitions of "AGI" that people come up with, and some include dreaming, quantum world, creativity, and some do not.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#142

Post by layer8 »

Root_Denied wrote: post #89
wilg wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguing about the definitions of words is rarely useful.

Except AI already had a clear definition well before it started being used as a way to inflate valuations and push marketing narratives. If nothing else it's been a sci-fi topic for more than a century. There's connotations, cultural baggage, and expectations from the general population about what AI is and what it's capable of, most of which isn't possible or applicable to the current crop of "AI" tools. You can't j…

Maybe do some reading here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_artificial_intellig...

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#143

Post by fragmede »

sosodev wrote: post #77

I think it's a shame that a 146 minute podcast released ~55 minutes ago has so much discussion. Everybody here is clearly just reacting to the title with their own biases. I know it's against the guidelines to discuss the state of a thread, but I really wish we could have thoughtful conversations about the content of links instead of title reactions.

Who listens to podcasts at 1x speed? That's unbearably slow!

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#144

Post by wilfredk »

czk wrote: post #73
Imnimo wrote: post #68

>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…

like leveling to 99 in old school runescape

Perfect analogy.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#145

Post by adastra22 »

sdenton4 wrote: post #96
adastra22 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Machine learning is only part of how an LLM agent works though. An essential part, but only a part.

I see a fair amount of bullshit in the LLM space though, where even cursory consideration would connect the methods back to well-known principles in ML (and even statistics!) to measure model quality and progress. There's a lot of 'woo, it's new! we don't know how to measure it exactly but we think it's groundbreaking!' which is simply wrong. From where I sit, the generative models provide more flexibility but tend t…

I think we have a vocabulary problem here, because I am having a hard time understanding what you are trying to say.

You appear to be comparing apples to oranges. A generation task is not a categorization task. Machine learning solves categorization problems. Generative AI uses model trained by machine learning methods, but in a very different architecture to solve generative problems. Completely different and incomparable application domain.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#146

Post by omidsa1 »

Imnimo wrote: post #68

>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…

I also quite like the way he puts it. However, from a certain point onward, the AI itself will contribute to the development—adding nines—and that’s the key difference between this analogy of nines in other systems (including earlier domain‑specific ML ones) and the path to AGI. That's why we can expect fast acceleration to take off within two years.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#147

Post by rvz »

segmondy wrote: post #128
010101010101 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you because it’s sure not where I am…

5 years ago, everyone would agree that what we have today is AGI.

No-one agrees on what is even AGI, except for the fact that the definitions change more times that the weather which makes it meaningless.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#148

Post by bcrosby95 »

Spare_account wrote: post #47
wilg wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguing about the definitions of words is rarely useful.

How can we discuss if we are talking about different things?

The point is to establish definitions rather than argue about them. You might save yourself from two pointless arguments.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#150

Post by throw54465665 »

zeroonetwothree wrote: post #117
throw54465665 wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most humans do not even have a general intelligence! Many students are practically illiterate, and can not even read and understand book or manual! We are approaching situation, where AI will make most decisions, and people will wear it as a skin suit, to fake competency!

I wouldn’t say that any specific skill (like literacy) is required to have intelligence. It’s more the capability to learn skills and build a model of the world and the people in it using abstract reasoning. Otherwise we would have to say that pre-literacy societies lacked intelligence, which would be silly since they are the ones that invented writing in the first place!

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