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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#61

Post by woodruffw »

CaptainOfCoit wrote: post #15
evandrofisico wrote: post #3

And self sustained nuclear fusion is 20 years away, perpetually. On which evidence can he affirm a timeline for AGI when we can barely define intelligence?

And a program that can write, sound and paint like a human was 20 years away perpetually as well, until it wasn't.

Is this true? I think it’s equally easy to claim that these phenomena are attributable to aesthetic adaptability in humans, rather than the ability of a machine to act like a human. The machine still doesn’t possess intentionality.

This isn’t a bad thing, and I think LLMs are very impressive. But I do think we’d hesitate to call their behavior human-like if we weren’t predisposed to anthropomorphism.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#62

Post by 1970-01-01 »

Great quote:

"When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three nines or two nines. I don’t know what it is, but multiple nines of iteration. There are still more nines to go.

That’s why these things take so long."

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#63

Post by colecut »

jb1991 wrote: post #58

I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.

If you are right, you don't have to

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#64

Post by ctkhn »

CSSer wrote: post #27
Topgamer7 wrote: post #5

Whenever someone brings up "AI", I tell them AI is not real AI. Machine learning is a more apt buzzword. And real AI is probably like fusion. Its always 10 years away.

The best part of this is I watched Sam Altman say he really thinks fusion is a short period of time away in response to a question about energy consumption a couple years ago. That was the moment I knew he's a quack.

Not to be anti YC on their forum, but the VC business model is all about splashing cash on a wide variety of junk that will mostly be worthless, hyping it to the max, and hoping one or two is like amazon or facebook. He's not an engineer, he's like Steve Jobs without the good parts.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#65

Post by 6d6b73 »

Even without AGI, current LLMs will change society in ways we can't yet imagine. And this is both good and bad. Current LLMs are just a different type of automation, not mechanical like control systems and robots, but intellectual. They don't have to be able to think independently, but as long as they automate some white-collar tasks, they will change how the rest of society works. The simple transistor is just a small electronic component that is a better version of a tube, and yet it changed everything in a few decades. How will the world change because of LLMs? I have no idea, but I know it doesn't have to be AGI to cause a lot of upheaval.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#66

Post by timidiceball »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #31
Topgamer7 wrote: post #5

Whenever someone brings up "AI", I tell them AI is not real AI. Machine learning is a more apt buzzword. And real AI is probably like fusion. Its always 10 years away.

AI is an overloaded term. I took an AI class in 2001. We learned all sorts of algorithms classified as AI. Including various ML techniques. Under which included perceptrons.

That was an impressive takeaway from the first machine learning course i took: that many things previously under the umbrella of Artificial Intelligence have since been demystified and demoted to implementations we now just take for granted. Some examples were real world map route planning for transport, locating faces in images, Bayesian spam filters.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#67

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

1970-01-01 wrote: post #62

Great quote: "When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three nines or two nines. I don’t know what it is, but multiple nines of iteration. There are still more nines to go. That’s why these things take so long."

Importantly, the first 9s are the easiest.

If you need to get to 9 9s, the 9th 9 could be more effort than the other 8 combined.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#68

Post by Imnimo »

>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three nines or two nines. I don’t know what it is, but multiple nines of iteration. There are still more nines to go.

I think this is an important way of understanding AI progress. Capability improvements often look exponential on a particular fixed benchmark, but the difficulty of the next step up is also often exponential, and so you get net linear improvement with a wider perspective.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#70

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

CSSer wrote: post #27
Topgamer7 wrote: post #5

Whenever someone brings up "AI", I tell them AI is not real AI. Machine learning is a more apt buzzword. And real AI is probably like fusion. Its always 10 years away.

The best part of this is I watched Sam Altman say he really thinks fusion is a short period of time away in response to a question about energy consumption a couple years ago. That was the moment I knew he's a quack.

Fusion is known science while AGI is still very much an enigma.
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