And self sustained nuclear fusion is 20 years away, perpetually. On which evidence can he affirm a timeline for AGI when we can barely define intelligence?
I'd argue we've had more progress towards fusion than AGI.
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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#22AGI is already here.
> AGI is already here.
cause elon musk says FSD is coming in 2017?
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#23Good because we have no framework whatsoever enabled for if it is legal or ethical to turn it off. Is that murder? I think so.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#24Whenever someone brings up "AI", I tell them AI is not real AI. Machine learning is a more apt buzzword. And real AI is probably like fusion. Its always 10 years away.
Machine learning as a descriptive phrase has stopped being relevant. It implies the discovery of information in a training set. The pre-training of an LLM is most definitely machine learning. But what people are excited and interested in is the use of this learned data in generative AI. “Machine learning” doesn’t capture that aspect.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#25And self sustained nuclear fusion is 20 years away, perpetually. On which evidence can he affirm a timeline for AGI when we can barely define intelligence?
And a program that can write, sound and paint like a human was 20 years away perpetually as well, until it wasn't.
This is the key insight I believe. It is inherently unpredictable. There are species that pass the mirror test with a far fewer equivalent number of parameters than large models are using already. Carmack has said something to the effect that about 10ksloc would glue the right existing achictectures together in the right way to make agi, but that it might take decades to stumble on that way, or someone might find it this afternoon.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#26And self sustained nuclear fusion is 20 years away, perpetually. On which evidence can he affirm a timeline for AGI when we can barely define intelligence?
Fusion used to be perpetually 30 years away. We’re making progress!
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#27Whenever someone brings up "AI", I tell them AI is not real AI. Machine learning is a more apt buzzword. And real AI is probably like fusion. Its always 10 years away.
The best part of this is I watched Sam Altman say he really thinks fusion is a short period of time away in response to a question about energy consumption a couple years ago. That was the moment I knew he's a quack.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#28Whenever someone brings up "AI", I tell them AI is not real AI. Machine learning is a more apt buzzword. And real AI is probably like fusion. Its always 10 years away.
Arguing about the definitions of words is rarely useful.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#29AGI is already here.
Where are you because it’s sure not where I am…
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#30We'll be living in a world of 50% unemployment and still debating whether it's "true AGI"