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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#141

Post by richardw »

sohex wrote: post #46
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

Own more parts of the tech chip industry it doesn’t already? It would instantly have even more massive leverage internationally.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#143

Post by dgoodell »

downrightmike wrote: post #8
moose_man wrote: post #2

"China is estimated to hold an about 84% share of the global market in neodymium magnets and an over 90% interest in samarium cobalt magnets. Japan, meanwhile, has about 15% of the neodymium magnet market and a less-than-10% share of that for samarium cobalt. If China bans the export of such technologies, it would be difficult for the United States and Europe, which do not traditionally manufacture rare earth magnets…

Didn't we just learn how to make magnets in a novel way without rare earth? Yes, yes we did: https://hackaday.com/2022/09/01/iron-nitrides-powerful-magne...

I don’t think that’s a commercial product yet, still on the tech development phase. It may not pan out.

I asked for some samples a while ago so we could test them out in our magnet lab here at NASA GRC but I haven’t heard anything back yet.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#144

Post by halJordan »

agentultra wrote: post #139

Aren't the materials to make rare-earth magnets... not actually that rare? It's only rare in the sense of their dispersal in the earth's crust, this making it a rather dirty and ecologically disruptive activity sourcing them. The US could theoretically start producing rare-earth metals, couldn't they?

Yes, but it trivializes the issue. You might ask why colonies needed to import finished goods from the motherland when they had all this wood and iron available.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#145

Post by nonethewiser »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #140
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

> It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand. Half the US population is asleep. During my undergrad years, I told my professor—then racing to get a foothold in China—that I thought war with China was inevitable. 15 to 25 years was my projection. He probably thought I was batshit crazy, but here we are. China’s now using shows of…

Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#146

Post by nobodyandproud »

nonethewiser wrote: post #145
nobodyandproud wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand. Half the US population is asleep. During my undergrad years, I told my professor—then racing to get a foothold in China—that I thought war with China was inevitable. 15 to 25 years was my projection. He probably thought I was batshit crazy, but here we are. China’s now using shows of…

Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain.

> Where are we exactly? Your prediction has not been proven correct. Even as much as things are escalating, war does not appear imminent nor certain.

We’re much closer than we were 20 years ago.

Nobody believed Russia would actually invade Ukraine; nor that Xi would be foolish enough to scare away Taiwan by muscling in on Hong Kong.

Unless the CCP forces Xi out, their hardliners and the middle-kingdom mindset have all but made some level of warfare certain.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#147

Post by nonethewiser »

sohex wrote: post #46
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

Im having a hard time approaching this question because it’s seems so obvious but it has caused me to think more carefully.

The obvious response is because they want to overthrow the government and govern it themselves. But to be more specific, they want the capacity to have a military presence on Taiwan, levy taxes, control trade, and legislate, police, people and businesses of Taiwan. All of these things help the CCP and in same ways China in general (although killing an ethnically Chinese Democracy isn’t actually doing any Chinese people favors).

Beyond this, more broadly they want to continue conquering and project power. Taiwan is their most important claim at the moment but it’s neither their first nor last. Next most obvious target is parts of Siberia and perhaps southeast Asian countries.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#148

Post by gscott »

lenkite wrote: post #135
gscott wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan's output of chips requires inputs from the rest of the world including Japan. At this time it doesn't make sense for china to cut out it's main source of high tech chips. It could make sense later if China had its own supply of chips and could cut out Taiwan altogether. China is pushing hard to make their own non-liberal order but China also depends on exports. Also China's political system is based upon absol…

> We have no political control in Cuba even though we did take a portion of the island. I think the Chinese will be extremely happy with a similar arrangement. Taiwanese government can continue, there will just be a nice, big military base right next door keeping an eye. I am sure all those folks captured and tortured in Guantanamo Bay in "independent" Cuba were very happy with the level of control the U.S. applied t…

Sometimes a country puts people into work camps for holding up a blank piece of paper, sometimes not.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#149

Post by medo-bear »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #140
causi wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not normal decoupling, we're in a full on economic war. In the short term that's terrible. In the long term, pain now will help minimize pain later when China invade Taiwan and US-China trade drops to zero overnight. It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand.

> It's coming sooner or later and the longer you leave your investments in China the more you risk the door slamming shut on your hand. Half the US population is asleep. During my undergrad years, I told my professor—then racing to get a foothold in China—that I thought war with China was inevitable. 15 to 25 years was my projection. He probably thought I was batshit crazy, but here we are. China’s now using shows of…

about 20 years ago i asked an old commie (proper commie, with portraits of marx engels lenin proudly hung on the wall and a library to show) what he thinks of china. his response stuck with me to this day

   in china you don't have socialism. what you have in china is a market for head-nooses and western capitalists are the main customer. it's absolutely genius!

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#150

Post by zozbot234 »

mullingitover wrote: post #107
sohex wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does China actually stand to gain by invading Taiwan? Any kind of real analysis based in anything other than nationalistic fervor or fear mongering seems to indicate that they're better served by the status quo.

One thing I learned recently was that when the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan, they took a vast trove of priceless Chinese antiquities with them. This has long been a sore spot for China, which makes the desire to annex Taiwan not simply a dollars and cents tactical goal but also a matter of national pride. It's like if we had a right-wing revolution in the US, and the current national government fled to Nova Scotia with…

How many priceless Chinese antiquities were destroyed by the Red Guards during the Cultural Revolution? They should have taken even more! It's like if we had a radical extremist revolution in the US, and the contents of the Smithsonian, the National Archives, and nearly every important museum and library were all burned because they're too old, oppressive and counter-revolutionary.
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